What are you backing Today?

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19:10 Hexham - More Madness e/w

(Guess it's a question of which one on the day adapts to the very heavy ground conditions? Selection is still a maiden over hurdles but has run consistently of late, especially in the context of this race. Another pretty speculative bet at the 8/1 generally available at time of writing. Could well drift in the betting. Not a race to put the mortgage on, for sure! Capable jockey on board).
 
Euronymous said:
Laurens in the May Hill. I haven't played AP in either Guineas for a number of years now but I have a nice price about the Wertheimer filly Polydream who was deeply impressive at Deauville a few weeks ago. She beat Laurens who is bred to stay and who pulled clear of the rest of the field that day as well (the filly in 4th sandwiched Tajaanus and Billesden Brook at Sandown ) I have 5s and 9/2 and expect a good run for my money.
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Top stuff again, Euro. Thanks.
 
I like Captain Lars in the first at Chester on Saturday. I reckon he is on a fair turf mark, he can run well on soft ground. He also possesses a nice turn of foot over this sprint distance, which helps around Chester. Finally, he's got a good draw in stall four. Therefore the best bet, (win or each way) in the race at 12/1.
 
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My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

2.25 Doncaster-Spirit Of Valor @ 9-1 [Boylesports]
2.30 Lingfield-Our Cilla @ 11-2 [Betfair Sports]
3.40 Lingfield-Dream Of Dreams @ 9-2 [Paddy Power]
3.50 Chester-Gabrials Centurion @ 6-1 [Bet Victor]
4.25 Chester-Throckley @ 13-2 [Paddy Power]
5.00 Chester-West Drive @ 9-2 [Skybet]
5.25 Lingfield-Arctic Flower @ 10-3 [Paddy Power]
 
I like Sir Dancelot in the Park Stakes each way but am afraid of non runners, will back once the 8 is assured. He was slightly disappointing in the Hungerford but I feel the jockey went for him way too soon - will be competitive if held onto longer today.

Also backed Crystal Ocean in the Leger. He was very impressive in the Gordon and even though Capri has the better form overall I think the Stoute horse is the class of the race. Loaded up at 9/2 and will have an IR lay in place at shorter just in case his stamina gives out near the end. Defoe has been beating boats on favourable WFA terms, Coronet is too short now and Capri I dunno, no run since the Curragh must be a negative.
 
Not so sure about the negative there. Last year's winner hadn't run since July and Simple Verse came off an even longer break. Scorpion back in the day also


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Simple Verse ran at Glorious Goodwood at the end of July. The other two pretty much beat handicappers in their renewals. This is tougher.
 
For any of you night owls out there! Trainer of The Buckeye Kid running tonight in Race 8 at Presque Isle Downs in the states reckons he'll be hard beat.

Around the 5/1 mark.


EDIT: My apologies if any of you lads backed him. I didn't stay up for it but a text this morning said he was only 6th. Was given a bad ride but wouldn't have beaten the winner anyway who won well.


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PlaceBacker said:
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

2.25 Doncaster-Spirit Of Valor @ 9-1 [Boylesports]
2.30 Lingfield-Our Cilla @ 11-2 [Betfair Sports]:)
3.40 Lingfield-Dream Of Dreams @ 9-2 [Paddy Power]:)
3.50 Chester-Gabrials Centurion @ 6-1 [Bet Victor]
4.25 Chester-Throckley @ 13-2 [Paddy Power]
5.00 Chester-West Drive @ 9-2 [Skybet]
5.25 Lingfield-Arctic Flower @ 10-3 [Paddy Power]
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Profit of 5pts
 
City of Joy in the 1400 at Newmarket. 7/2 generally but 5.8 on the machine as I type. He was very eye catching at York lto where he lost at least 3 lengths at the start before staying on for 5th behind Mojito and Battered (who franked the form behind the very impressive Kryptos at Donny at the Leger meeting). I fear the Gosden who has been average in conditions races but the selection is bred to be better over 10f than shorter.
 
5.40 Wolverhampton Elusivity 9/1 Bet365.

Elusivity on first glance looks a horse in rapid decline and at the grand old age of nine its not really surprising. His last 3 runs have been very poor but somewhat excusable in light of the task he faces tomorrow. Lto he was beaten over 7f a trip that has always proved beyond his optimum. The time before that here at Wolverhampton he wasn't completely disgraced fading in the final furlong over 6F ( tomorrow drops back to 5F ) he was 5lb higher in the handicap and wasn't ridden by a claimer. One before that he raced on Turf so that has little bearing now he's coming back to the tapeta.

In a bunch of runs before this though which is only as far back as June and July he's ran off marks of 69,67,64,62 and performed fairly decently and has recorded consistent Topspeed ratings of 57,51,48,50 which in context of the race only a few of these have managed something near that level and nowhere near as consistently. Running off a Mark of just 54 (between 15lb and 8lb lower than races mentioned) tomorrow the handicapper has given him a chance. He's also reunited with 7lb claimer Katherine Gleinster who I'd be lying to say I know much about but she was on board for 2 of those better performances so gets on fairly well with the horse and tbh from a nice draw of 3 and over 5f on a simple enough ride who likes to be handy surely not too much can go wrong.

Could be an argument that he's slightly better over 6f than 5f these days and I couldn't disagree but another interesting thing is the change of headgear switches from his regular pieces that he's worn for about his last 40 starts back to blinkers which he hasn't worn since he was rated 106 many moons ago. It could go either way but hopefully the change will just sharpen him up a bit. It looks to me for all the world like the trainer has waited to be given a chance by the handicapper before making the switch and if the horse is to have one last hurrah then tomorrow night could be it.

Wrote this yesterday for my place to be taken as you like.

Good luck today gents :)
 
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I thought I'd take a quick peek at the Dubai Duty Free Handicap.Thought these might be 3 to keep an eye on.

First Flight 40/1
I fail to see why this is 40/1. Has only had 4 runs for trainer Heather Main since switching from the boys in blue. Lto on Heavy ground so an excusable defeat. He's a horse that needs a strong pace to go at usually which you would have thought he'd get here and usually needs a bit of luck in running too. He was 2nd in this race a few years ago from a pound lower in the handicap and has been lighly raced since I guess due to various problems but showed he still retained some ability on his first run for the yard posting a decent figure when finishing second at Newmarket. He doesn't look well enough handicapped to win in truth but it wouldn't be hard to imagine him running into a place as things stand. Tried in first time blinkers as well today so as always with these things a bit hit and miss but he's certainly looked a sort who could do with a bit of help in the concentration department.

Law and order 12/1
Officially well in on the handicap by a few pounds he's one I considered for a group 3 at Kempton the other week where he was held up off a slow pace and didn't really stand much chance but finished to pretty good effect. Dropping back down to 10f here so will need a good pace to aim at but I really think Newbury will suit his run style and should be there abouts.

Threat Assessed 16/1
A very chancy one indeed coming back after a near 18 month lay off but looked a decent type back then. I always think its a sign when a trainer throws a horse in at the deep end for there first run back that they believe the horse to be on the right side of the handicapper and ready to roll and don't wish to blow the mark giving in a prep run. Could have run this here yesterday but decides to take his chance in the feature tells me the intent. Completely unexposed in a field where plenty have already shown their hands to some effect 16/1 might be enough to convince you he's worth a pop to be ripe for the day.
 
Just had a better look at Threat Assessed and he could be absolutely thrown in.

His last win at Sandown stayed on strongly over 9f off a mark of 80 he's now off 86.

Beat Dommerson 86 went on to be rated 97
Wild Hacked 82 now off 100 (although rating achieved at longer trips)
Borroco 74 now races off 89 (actually lines up today)

If Clive Cox has him ready for today and he still retains that sort of ability then he's a big player here.

They say the smart money always come late and if this is ripe for today I would expect him to be smashed up near the off.
 
3.40 Uttoxeter
Cut the Corner seems to me overpriced at 12/1.. Gets a 3lb pull with Midnight Cowboy but only beaten 1/2 length by that one at Stratford. MC seems likely to improve again and the King stable will be buzzing after their 1-2 in the Ces trial yesterday but at 3-4 times the price I'm having a go each way with Cut the Corner.
No doubt I'll find out why he's the price he is


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Guzman 1815 Chelmsford 12/1 e.w

Won its first two starts, last 3 been running in C2's drops back to a Class 4 and returns to the AW, Jack Garrity on board who has a fairly good strike rate when riding for Fahey.
 
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Fagan to turn over Ballyandy today seems a decent bet at 5/2. Further overnight rain at Perth means this will be a testing and a tough chase debut. The 6lb concession Ballyandy gets may be enough but the current price difference looks wrong to me


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