Cheltenham 3.00 Sweet Home Chicago 14/1 - This race doesn’t look too competitive other than that there are a few unknown quantities in it. However, I wonder if Sweet Home Chicago might be another Abolitionist in that there may be a case for saying his form is vastly better than his rating and under the old guidelines maybe the handicapper would have been tempted to bump him up at least a stone. He’s certainly the only one I’d consider backing in the race and the double-digit price makes it very much worth any risk involved. Last time at Galway he won a seemingly modest conditions hurdle. Rated 115 at the time, he gave the third (OR 124) 20lbs, including that latter’s claim, and a 15-length beating. A literal interpretation of that puts him on 156, which seems ridiculous. The runner-up didn’t have an OR on the day, which makes me wonder if the handicapper has chosen to ignore the third. However, dig a little deeper and you’ll see that the runner-up had been a 150 chaser and 135 hurdler not too long ago. That 135 rating would make Sweet Home Chicago a 148 hurdler, plus the notional 6lbs rise for coming here, ie 154. Maybe that 156 isn’t too ridiculous after all. Even if it’s only half-right, it still makes him 17lbs well in. I might be miles wrong but I’m more than happy to pay to find out.
