What are you backing Today?

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viking said:
God’s Own should win this if anywhere near his best but I fear his tendency to belt one or two may cost him. I’ve gone for Theo who gets plenty of weight from the others and was looking for a real threat last time when failing to get home. The 2.5f shorter trip should be in his favour and 10/1 looks a decent enough price


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Just watched the Haldon GC. God’s Own belted a couple as expected but his class was enough to ensure he got the job done in the end. Theo rather taken off his feet and it was a bit much in hindsight asking him to run well in this grade again in little more than a week


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You could do worse thing than have an EW bet on Wot A Shot 16/1 up at Edinburgh today.

Said to be fit and well and has been 1st 2nd and 3rd at the track from 3 runs.
 
2.15 Nott'm
Latest g/s reading;7.2
A cracking little sprint which shouldn't be too hard to solve, with only 7 runners.
Flying Pursuit is easily discounted - has only run once over the trip in 40 outings, and probably needs more cut anyway.
Can't split Kick On Kick On and Copper Knight but it's handy they're both pace horses drawn high, so I've dutched them and done a rfc (currrently c12/1 on 365).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Assuming Definitly Red ran to his OR of 164, the less experienced Black Corton has probably run to around 160, 7lbs above his OR, with Virgilio on about 159 (OR 157). I reckon BC is probably a 167+ horse in the making.
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RPRs have rated DR at 164 and BC at 160, bang on what I'd anticipated but while the handicapper has left DR on 164 he's only put BC up to 157. I imagine Nicholls won't be too unhappy with that given the hose jumped nowhere near as well as he can. Virgilio has also been left alone so the run hasn't done him any harm either.

I'm working on my own figures just now but I expect I'll be rating the entire race about 3lbs better. BC will have a +p.

I've mentioned before that immediate post-race interview comments, which I know some on here dislike, can be illuminating. Danny Cook was ecstatic after the race and talked about how much celebrating they'll be doing.

Interestingly too, the owner said they felt DR was "seven to ten pounds short of top class".
 
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Tanlic said:
You could do worse thing than have an EW bet on Wot A Shot 16/1 up at Edinburgh today.

Said to be fit and well and has been 1st 2nd and 3rd at the track from 3 runs.
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Wot A Shot Wot A Shot is a winner around here, he quite enjoys this track and he's got his ground conditions. He does need the race to drop right for him to win but if it does then he'd run a nice race. Trainer N.Richards
 
Desert Orchid said:
RPRs have rated DR at 164 and BC at 160, bang on what I'd anticipated but while the handicapper has left DR on 164 he's only put BC up to 157. I imagine Nicholls won't be too unhappy with that given the hose jumped nowhere near as well as he can. Virgilio has also been left alone so the run hasn't done him any harm either.

I'm working on my own figures just now but I expect I'll be rating the entire race about 3lbs better. BC will have a +p.

I've mentioned before that immediate post-race interview comments, which I know some on here dislike, can be illuminating. Danny Cook was ecstatic after the race and talked about how much celebrating they'll be doing.

Interestingly too, the owner said they felt DR was "seven to ten pounds short of top class".
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BC's been alloted 157, though whether that still obtains after tomorrow is in the lap of the gods. It's probably a fair reflection of what he achieved at Wetherby,though you'd expect improvement for Newbury. If I were PN I'd be delighted (and first in the queue for the 33/1).
 
reet hard said:
2.15 Nott'm
Latest g/s reading;7.2
A cracking little sprint which shouldn't be too hard to solve, with only 7 runners.
Flying Pursuit is easily discounted - has only run once over the trip in 40 outings, and probably needs more cut anyway.
Can't split Kick On Kick On and Copper Knight but it's handy they're both pace horses drawn high, so I've dutched them and done a rfc (currrently c12/1 on 365).
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Turned a profit, but so easily could have been a cigar. Ho hum.
 
2.55 Newbury
Moon Racer may be the value here at 15/2 (4 places with Skybet). The stable seems very confident he’ll get the trip and a 3lb rise from last time out when he appeared to have loas in hand may be generous. The jolly looks very short but may well follow up here if the race doesn’t come too soon


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viking said:
2.55 Newbury
Moon Racer may be the value here at 15/2 (4 places with Skybet). The stable seems very confident he’ll get the trip and a 3lb rise from last time out when he appeared to have loas in hand may be generous. The jolly looks very short but may well follow up here if the race doesn’t come too soon


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Looked as if Moon Racer was ridden purely to qualify and not given a hard time. One I’ll be looking to keep onside for bigger prizes later including the Final of this series


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Fontwell 3.55 Milkwood 7/1 looks a value e/way bet. The Wincanton bumper he ran in l/t/o is working out well. The 2nd Bold Plan finished 3rd in the nov hurdle at Newbury yesterday.The 6th Drunken Pirate won the Newbury bumper yesterday. The 10th Zyon finished a close 3rd in the Ascot bumper last week. The 5th Boldmere has let the form down but he was badly hampered at the first in a hot novice hurdle and may have lost confidence.
 
3.15 Doncaster-​Wolf Country

Each Way @ 10-1 [Bet 365] 5 Places ,1/4 BOG

To cap off a great season for Charlie Appleby
 
This is my take on the Badger Ales:

WNC 3.35 BADGER ALES TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (Class 1) (4yo+ 0-155)Winner £34,170 16 runners 3m1f30y Good To Firm ITV4
No.
Form
Horse
Stats
Days
Age
Weight
Trainer
Jockey
OR
TS
MON
(158)
Notes
RPR
16
28-051
Sam Red
tb D
15
7
10-4
Dan Skelton
Mr William Marshall 7
122
119
167
?
171? Hd
158
1
11043-
Present Man
t CD
196
8
11-12
Paul Nicholls
Bryony Frost 3
144
138
158
p
152
2
21279-
Ramses De Teillee
t
206
6
11-9
David Pipe
David Noonan
141
91
158
? p
157
9
10P43-
Dancing Shadow
b D
200
9
11-0
Victor Dartnall
Conor Shoemark
132
86
157
p
120
3
710/1-
El Bandit
D
543
7
11-7
Paul Nicholls
Harry Cobden
139
-
156
Hd
-
14
203-43
Captain Buck's
tp bf
22
6
10-6
Paul Nicholls
Daryl Jacob
124
140
156
154
8
-37112
Belmount
p D
4
9
11-0
Nigel Twiston-Davies
Jamie Bargary
132
125
155
p
152
10
231513
Sumkindofking
t
13
7
10-13
Tom George
Noel Fehily
131
125
155
p
148
15
138541
Fingerontheswitch
tp D
7
8
10-4
Neil Mulholland
Robert Dunne
122
109
155
e Hd
150
6
1UP-01
Bigbadjohn
t C
13
9
11-5
Nigel Twiston-Davies
Tom Bellamy
137
132
154
150
7
7-6322
Forever Field
p bf
31
8
11-5
Nicky Henderson
Jeremiah McGrath
137
117
153
149
12
-P312P
Bestwork

46
7
10-9
Charlie Longsdon
Jonathan Burke
127
135
153
p
153
4
-11215
Kings Lad
t C D
7
11
11-6
Colin Tizzard
Richard Johnson
138
85
152
+
[++]
149
5
1P3331
Allelu Alleluia
b
17
7
11-5
Jonjo O'Neill
Nick Scholfield
137
118
151
? p
145
11
321551
Aunty Ann
CD
22
7
10-10
Charlie Longsdon
Jordan Nailor 7
128
122
151
p
151
13
7-2512
On Demand
p C
25
7
10-7
Colin Tizzard
Wayne Hutchinson
125
126
148
146

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This is always a good race and the obvious place to start is with Nicholls’s runners. Present Man is overnight favourite and this might be the time of year to catch him with Bryony Frost’s claim no hindrance in the least. El Bandit could be a blot based on his best hurdles form and allowing the notional 10lbs improvement for fences. He’s effectively a novice, with only one chase in his career and that was a year and a half ago but if this is a long-term plan it’s highly unlikely that Nicholls won’t have been working him over the larger obstacles for some time. But what if the Hennessy is the plan? Jockey bookings suggest Captain Buck’s is the least fancied of the yard’s trio. I have to have some sickness insurance on Kings Lad after last week. My reading of the race tells me he’s better than the bare form at Ascot but he’ll need to be. The only other one for which I can muster enthusiasm is Sam Red but he’s the one I fancy the most. Had I read the form before his last race I’d have been all over him like a rash even though he ended up winning despite it probably being no more than a prep for this. The bare form is nowhere near good enough to win here but it’s his hurdles form and novice chase form last season that strikes me as leaving him seriously under-rated. He was a 139 novice hurdler towards the end of the season before last and appeared to be brought along gently last season in novice chases. However, at Fakenham in April, he ran into a horse called Step Back to whom he tried to concede 12lbs. Losing by 16 lengths over three miles equates to those 12lbs but it doesn’t allow for the ease of the win. Three weeks later Step Back totally destroyed a top class Whitbread field. Ten lengths behind Sam Red at Fakenham was Captain Buck’s, also receiving 12lb. Tomorrow he has to give Sam Red 9lbs if you include the latter’s rider’s claim yet Captain Buck’s is nearly half the price of Sam Red.

Bets: 1 pt win Sam Red 14/1; 1/4 pt win Kings Lad 20/1
 
Sam Red was also one I considered strongly but have gone for Ramses de Teillee with the easing of the ground in his favour



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Little L15 for Sunday. Navan 1:35 Apple's Jade, (good thing?), 2:10 Doctor Phoenix. Sandown 2:20 Thomas Patrick 2:55 Don't Ask
 
The best race tomorrow is at Bangor - Which is the three mile chase at 1:50. I am prepared to take on the market leaders and go left field with Delusion Of Grandeur who I reckon is handicapped to win again on his best form. 16/1 tickles my fancy.
 
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Looks that sort of race Martin, misfits and pipe openers all at shorter- follow you in

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Yeah that's the thinking, Geoff. Each way with the three places available. Good luck fella!
 
Following you in there. Sure to go better at today’s trip


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Morning

7.00 Kempton-Chookie Dunedin


Each Way @ 10-1 [Ladbrokes] BOG

Of interest he comes all this way to make his artificial surface debut
 
Wasn't a bad run in fifth for Delusion Of Grandeur. He has to go in the tracker.
 
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