What are you backing Today?

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Desert Orchid said:
I've taken the three favourites in the last three handicaps at Ascot.

It's very unlike me to be backing favourites but the truth is that I don't look at the betting until after I've done the form.

All three strike me as good favourites.

Royal Regatta has clearly had his issues but is on a winnable mark having beaten Kylemore Lough at levels in the Stella race at this meeting two years ago. He has a King George entry which suggests he’s not disappointing at home.

Minella Daddy was my main bet in the Whitbread and this race is a long way off that level. Whatever happened at Sandown I don't know but he was never going.

Chatez has a similar advantage over the field as Speedo Boy did at the weekend based on his Flat ability. He just needs to prove he can translate it back over hurdles.
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That was difficult viewing but it at least reminded me of why I don't usually bet on non-TV races.

Roddy might tell us otherwise but it looked to me like Minella Daddy ran similarly to the Whitbread, never seemingly enjoying it and I wonder if he dislikes being on the inside of other horses. On top of that, the number of times Bowen never asked him to find a stride was shocking. His future engagements will be interesting.

Regal Regatta was only there for the exercise after all. Lots of tell-tale signs that he wasn't there to win long before he lost his place. No doubt he'll be a much bigger price next time as a result of this.

Chatez was a big disappointment. Jolly's Cracked it had the winning of the race on his best form but nowhere near the prospects of Chatez's recent Flat figures. Had Chatez not been in the race I could have fancied JCI in the same way that I fancied Royal Regatta but these illustrate the chances you take backing horses coming back after absences.

Not a good day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That was difficult viewing but it at least reminded me of why I don't usually bet on non-TV races.

Roddy might tell us otherwise but it looked to me like Minella Daddy ran similarly to the Whitbread, never seemingly enjoying it and I wonder if he dislikes being on the inside of other horses. On top of that, the number of times Bowen never asked him to find a stride was shocking. His future engagements will be interesting.

Regal Regatta was only there for the exercise after all. Lots of tell-tale signs that he wasn't there to win long before he lost his place. No doubt he'll be a much bigger price next time as a result of this.

Chatez was a big disappointment. Jolly's Cracked it had the winning of the race on his best form but nowhere near the prospects of Chatez's recent Flat figures. Had Chatez not been in the race I could have fancied JCI in the same way that I fancied Royal Regatta but these illustrate the chances you take backing horses coming back after absences.

Not a good day.
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Last weekend was the worst weekend I've ever had betting. You're one of the best on this forum and no doubt you'll be flying high again.
 
I'm big on the First Assignment/Might Bite double tomorrow. So seeing First Assignment posted in 'Will Win' makes me ever so slightly more nervous.
 
Ghazawaat (1.25L) 7/2 was caught on the line in strongly run similar contest last week. She should come on for that first run in 5 months, and her trainer is past master in applying headgear at the right time, and today's first time pieces should see her home around a sharper Lingfield circuit.
 
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1.50 Haydock
Black Mischief looked sure to win when coming down at the last at Market Rasen last time out. The eventual winner that day Jersey Bean is now rated 136 having gone in again easily at Newbury and Black Mischief who was giving 12lb at Market Rasen (less the admirable Aine O’Connor’s claim) gets to race off 136 today with Dickie up. A strong bet for me at 11/2


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viking said:
1.50 Haydock
Black Mischief looked sure to win when coming down at the last at Market Rasen last time out. The eventual winner that day Jersey Bean is now rated 136 having gone in again easily at Newbury and Black Mischief who was giving 12lb at Market Rasen (less the admirable Aine O’Connor’s claim) gets to race off 136 today with Dickie up. A strong bet for me at 11/2


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:thumbsup:
 
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viking said:
1.50 Haydock
Black Mischief looked sure to win when coming down at the last at Market Rasen last time out. The eventual winner that day Jersey Bean is now rated 136 having gone in again easily at Newbury and Black Mischief who was giving 12lb at Market Rasen (less the admirable Aine O’Connor’s claim) gets to race off 136 today with Dickie up. A strong bet for me at 11/2


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Very well done.nice price
 
Trying my luck at the fitba now...

I've taken Livi not to lose at Ibrox. The home side remains seriously over-rated and Livi are the stuffiest team in the league. I hope they don't commit suicide by trying to change their style today.
 
3.00 Musselburgh. Cap St Vincent. I think the horse is fairly well handicapped and a decent win 11 days ago, I think it will go in again today. Currently around 2.64.
 
3.20 Ludlow. Thomas Campbell. This horse is far far superior to anything in this race. If the horse jumps around it should hack up. The current price is ridiculously high at 1.67 and I'm getting stuck into it now.
 
Irishgoat said:
3.20 Ludlow. Thomas Campbell. This horse is far far superior to anything in this race. If the horse jumps around it should hack up. The current price is ridiculously high at 1.67 and I'm getting stuck into it now.
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Well done - takes balls to strongly recommend an odds on shot.
 
LUKE said:
Well done - takes balls to strongly recommend an odds on shot.
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I'd as easily lay an odds on shot. The other was odds against. You're probably a member of the other Irish forum where people tip and spout about big prices but never get a winner. I also lay horses that are 3.3/3.5/3.7. That an issue too ?
 
Welcome Irish. I think you might have misinterpreted Luke's sentiments. There are a lot of us on here that go for big prices, which I think Luke was, (possibly cryptically) aluding to! :) E.G not enough people tip short priced horses at a good win strike rate on this forum anymore, (which you have done well today). Keep posting fella.
 
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I understand Marble. I gamble for a living and I back at mostly of 3.0 and downwards to odds on. it's rare I'd back anything at bigger prices. I'd have no problem laying at even 4.0 if I think the horse has no chance but I mostly lay favourites at shorter prices. I could tell you I layed Might bite and Padre Mio on Saturday at low prices and I could be accused of after timing so I won't say it. I posted in the 'welcome' thread in which I said I keep my own ratings and price up most races each day. I'm new here, I fully understand that and people will be critical and and that's fine. All my bets are open to see on the other forum including Saturday's bets. I decided to take a break from that particular forum because the majority have no comprehension of class/grades/handicaps or ratings but still want to argue about them. I had a look at a few racing forums and I thought this was probably the most knowledgeable so I joined to have a bit of discussion and post my bets, the winners and losers.

I post my bets near the off between 10 and 3 or 4 minutes from the off, some people don't like that either.
 
Irishgoat said:
3.20 Ludlow. Thomas Campbell. This horse is far far superior to anything in this race. If the horse jumps around it should hack up. The current price is ridiculously high at 1.67 and I'm getting stuck into it now.
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I like betting short ones especially in these races. Thomas Campbell is a tricky one though. I thought he ran a nice race LTO over a trip too short but he'd been a non runner twice before that so there was a nagging doubt the horse has a problem. In today's race by initial thought was he must be a certainty but when I looked at it I wanted 5/6 to back him. Psychedelic Rock looked a good opponent for him based on their last 3 runs. I'd have bet him at the SP of 7/2.
 
SlimChance said:
I like betting short ones especially in these races. Thomas Campbell is a tricky one though. I thought he ran a nice race LTO over a trip too short but he'd been a non runner twice before that so there was a nagging doubt the horse has a problem. In today's race by initial thought was he must be a certainty but when I looked at it I wanted 5/6 to back him. Psychedelic Rock looked a good opponent for him based on their last 3 runs. I'd have bet him at the SP of 7/2.
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My take on it was, the horse was improving hand over fist over hurdles in 2017 into 2018. Rated 155 over hurdles in March this year. They said they wanted to go chasing with it. Gave it an 'educational' in a class 3 at Newbury when it just looked awkward. Today's trip was definitely on the sharp side for it but it was a class 4. I'd say now after winning today, it will be upped in class and trip next time out.
Psychedelic Rock, was struggling to win a class 2 and eventually won a class 3 handicap off 133. So all in all there was a potential class 1 running against a decent handicapper. I thought the 1.67 was an amazing price.
 
No problem with your logic at all. We're basically in difference over 13 ticks.
 
12.10 Southwell, Anna Jammeela. I'm laying this today. Currently 3.2. This is a very messy class 6 handicap. Anna Jammeela is running off 52 today, I think 53 could be about right. But I have a whole host of other horses within a 1lbs of the fav, and even 1 rated 'potentially' a few lbs higher taking weight into consideration. At best I think Anna Jammeela has 1 length on a few horse, but it's going to be messy and if sluggish out of the stalls or hemmed in and loses a length it's curtains. Strong lay for me.
 
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1.05 Hereford, Dr Sanderson. Currently around 2.40 I'm laying this, much tougher races than it's previous 2 and under a penalty.
 
Irishgoat said:
12.10 Southwell, Anna Jammeela. I'm laying this today. Currently 3.2. This is a very messy class 6 handicap. Anna Jammeela is running off 52 today, I think 53 could be about right. But I have a whole host of other horses within a 1lbs of the fav, and even 1 rated 'potentially' a few lbs higher taking weight into consideration. At best I think Anna Jammeela has 1 length on a few horse, but it's going to be messy and if sluggish out of the stalls or hemmed in and loses a length it's curtains. Strong lay for me.
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Your balance is lighter after it won but what that doesn't tell is that it was backed at double figures in running. I'd say it shows that your reasoning was sound.
 
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