What are you backing Today?

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Nice one Reet

It’s not often I even look at midweek fayre but I’ve done fairly well in the Artillery Gold Cup in recent years, mainly by following trainers (Nicholls did well for a while) and jockeys.

My eyes were immediately drawn to Jody Sole, who rode for Nicholls, and Late Romantic looked to have every chance though his jumping leaves a lot to be desired but the more I looked I couldn’t believe how potentially well treated Carlos Du Fruitier is in this race with previous race winning jockey Brodie Hampson on board.

She’s more experienced than any of these jockeys and the form of her mount’s Kempton 3rd over Christmas is red hot in the context of this race. I’ve a slight niggling doubt about the 3m trip (slightly shorter would be perfect at this stiff track) but the ground shouldn’t be too testing and 2/1 looks very good indeed for a horse who’s likely to still be improving, unlike the majority of runners.
 
12.50 Briac, laying this for a place in a horrible race at around 2.04. Dorking **** could go well in a bad bad race but just the lay for me.

1.20 Sandown, Not another muddle, around 2.64 I'm laying this hard. Originally I was going have a win bet on Sir Edgbert but decided to stick with the lay.
 
Two fairly strong fancies for me on Saturday, one being the one I already mentioned on The Grand National thread, Pobbles Bay.

The other is Admirals Secret in the 1:45 at Wincanton. He has an excellent strike rate over fences, (3/8), must be forgiven for refusing to race the last day, and is basically getting a lot of weight off other horses. He could be well handicapped still. 11/2 a good price I reckon.

Good luck tomorrow.
 
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wilsonl said:
It’s not often I even look at midweek fayre but I’ve done fairly well in the Artillery Gold Cup in recent years, mainly by following trainers (Nicholls did well for a while) and jockeys.

My eyes were immediately drawn to Jody Sole, who rode for Nicholls, and Late Romantic looked to have every chance though his jumping leaves a lot to be desired but the more I looked I couldn’t believe how potentially well treated Carlos Du Fruitier is in this race with previous race winning jockey Brodie Hampson on board.

She’s more experienced than any of these jockeys and the form of her mount’s Kempton 3rd over Christmas is red hot in the context of this race. I’ve a slight niggling doubt about the 3m trip (slightly shorter would be perfect at this stiff track) but the ground shouldn’t be too testing and 2/1 looks very good indeed for a horse who’s likely to still be improving, unlike the majority of runners.
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Good shout , Lee.
:cool:
 
The eaglehaslanded 435w
Has been running well at Cheltenham over further and now drops back in trip and down in grade.
Nicholls has 3 in it.
Dan Skelton's on the gamble,D.Jacob on another and JJ Burke on The Eagle.7/1 looks good value.
 
With the likely pace, C/D and ground all in his favour Black Corton (2.10 Asc) looks a solid bet @ B365's current 3/1.
 
Marble said:
The other is Admirals Secret in the 1:45 at Wincanton. He has an excellent strike rate over fences, (3/8), must be forgiven for refusing to race the last day, and is basically getting a lot of weight off other horses. He could be well handicapped still. 11/2 a good price I reckon.

Good luck tomorrow.
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If I owned Admirals Secret James Best wouldn't be riding him again.

Admirals Secret was cantering all over the field two or three out, before his jockey put unnecessary pressure on him for a 'big jump' , something you don't do on dodgy jumpers who've refused to race.

What was James Best thinking???

He has thrown away a winnable race there.

Thanks a lot...
 
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All is Good (Hunt 2:00) looks very good after a break and a wind-op, 100/30 a fair price to have a bet on.
 
Kilmarnock to beat Celtic today at Rugby Park (7/1-ish).

Celtic were in steamrolling form from after the January break until being steamrolled themselves on Thursday by Valencia. Celtic is a team that, domestically, thrives on confidence and they are simply far superior to everyone else up here but they have their frailties. One of them is the type of synthetic surface they have to play on at Killie, Livingston and Hamilton.

Rodgers tends not to risk players like Simunovic, Benkovic and Ajer on these surfaces. Benkovic is out injured anyway but it will probably be another makeshift defensive set-up, which isn't good. Brown has been in commanding form in deep midfield since the break but reverted to type the other night, playing much more negatively and when he does that the whole team loses form. If he does it again today I expect Killie to get several shots on goal, something Celtic aren't used to facing domestically.

I think it's still the case that in all league games since Stevie Clarke took over at Killie they have amassed more points than any other side including Celtic who tend not to play too well at Rugby Park anyway. There's also a chance that Celtic's motivation levels will be slightly down after both Aberdeen and the Ibrox side dropped points at home yesterday.

Obviously I want to see the Hoops rattle in five or six and stretch their lead and goal difference at the top of the table but I have huge respect for what Stevie Clarke is doing in deepest Ayrshire.
 
Hoping today will be a really good day. I got a few bits of info for a few horses today.

1.00 Huntingdon, Hold the note, around 3.25 currently. I've been told this won't be winning today, already been layed. I've been laying 3.6/3.55. It will sting like hell if this horse wins but hopefully the info is spot on.

1.50 Navan, Raya Time, currently backing this to win, around 2.44 currently.

Good luck to anyone betting today.
 
Danzan (7.00N) has regularly competed in quality races and probably ran the race of his life when a close 3rd to the smart Island Of Life at Kempton, even though his pilot went for home too soon. That was his first ever handicap run and he disappointed on his second when reportedly not acting on the Southwell surface latest. Back in a h/c today, which is effectively a drop in class, and I'd expect him to run much better than his price suggests.
9/1 generally.
 
Hussar Ballad 5.00 Newc, think this old horse looks really well in today running from a mark of 54, hasn't won since Oct 17 but has ran some decent races since and has plumeted in the h'cap. Lto over C/D in a slow run race took a keen hold and didn't quicken off 58 but still only btn 3 1/2 lengths. But back in Oct in a much faster run race, 8 secs quicker from 64 was btn 4 3/4 lengths in 3rd by Trautman giving that horse 5lbs, Trautman won from 5lb higher afterwards and currently rated 69, up 10lbs, HB has dropped 10lbs since that run, but what gives it more substance is that the 4th and 5th also won their next race over C/D beating horses in Nearly There and Good Man which have collateral form with HB which suggest he would have gone very close in a faster run race lto at Newc. Anthony Britains stable is in good form at present with 2 winners,2nd and 2 3rds from last 7 runners past F/N and has 7 winners this year, at around 12/1 looks a decent EW bet to me.
 
Good luck to Reet and Simpson (good to see you posting Simpson!).

Anemoi runs tomorrow at Taunton, so before I forget...

Here's what I wrote about him on my latest blog entry..

https://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/entry.php?511-Marble-s-anti-post-bets-for-Cheltenham-2019

"Country Hurdle - ANEMOI from Harry Whittington's yard is another horse who has form with the excellent yardstick Jarvey's Plate. Anemoi won his novice hurdle's very convincingly. This well bred son of Manduro, out of a Cape Cross mare, looks very interesting on a mark of 135 for The County Hurdle. He has an entry in the 4:15 at Taunton this Tuesday. This will be over the his usual trip of two miles. I hope he can stamp his authority over the field on Tuesday, putting himself right in the picture for The County Hurdle in the process. He is currently available at 25/1 for The County Hurdle."
 
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He's been off the track 49 days, needs to have a run mate.
 
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I'm not particularly interested in backing him for tomorrow at shortish prices, the 25/1 for The County Hurdle is where I think the value's at. :)

So you are right in the sense that I shouldn't have posted it on this thread.

I still think he'll win tomorrow though. I wouldn't put anyone off...:)
 
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He’ll need to at least run well as there’s no guarantee he’d get in the County off 135. It’s likely but 135 can be borderline.
 
Yes, having considered it you're absolutely right, Lee.
135 is too low to be sure of a run; certaintly not what I'd want backing him anti-post for The County. I need some certainty!

Top jockey Darryl Jacob booked to ride tomorrow.
 
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Court Royale looks interesting in this race (4.15 Taunton). The return to good ground will surely see a much better effort from him than the last twice and he looked progressive when winning over C&D in November. The PFN horse he gave weight and a beating to that time has won since and is now rated 132. Court Royale races off 121 today with Sean Bowen up and 12/1 will do for me
 
3.45 Taunton, Orchardstown Cross. I got a bit of info that the money is not down to win today. I'd had a fairly big lay on it. Around 3.15 currently.
 
A bit of a redner from earlier. I'm on a recovery mission to claw back a few quid that went south.

7.00 Wolves Dont Do It, laying this for the win and also the place. Around 3.75 on the win, and around 1.69 on the place. I'll be happy if it gets beat, but if it's unplaced too I'll claw back most of today's loss.

I thought the horse exceeded itself over 1m2f, over 1m1f today. I can't see it getting home tonight in front as I thought it needed/needs further.
 
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