What are you backing Today?

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Wissahickon has all the hallmarks of a certainty in the Winter Derby, especially with Court House to guarantee a good pace. However, there's 21K for 2nd today, and with Wm Buick in the plate, to ehsure he's ridden more judiciously, I expect him to turn arond the place form with Big Country. F/c currently pays around 11/2.

In the Hever Sprint, Gorgeous Noora has any amount of speed and, while she was never expected to beat Kachy latest, still showed enough toe to cover the first 5f in course standard time.
7/2 best.
 
My head is all over the shop with today's racing - and that's without even looking at the AW card.

I've chopped and changed in nearly every race so I probably should have left betting alone altogether today.

As it is, I've landed on three bets, none of which were my original selections, and I just know the original selections will win! I let the prices put me off them.

Anyway, I've backed:

Eider - Kilkishen
Dovecote - DDC ew
888 Chase - Rather Be

and added Pagero (Adonis) and Daklondike (Eider).

I mentioned Pagero in the long shot thread. That's just sickness insurance. I only just noticed Daklondike's price. I'd thought he'd be about 5/1. He's got a lot to do on my figures but this extra trip might bring about a lot of improvement.
 
PlaceBacker said:
Looking forward to the hurdle debut of Red Force One tomorrow at Kempton [2.25]

As flat form looked useful last summer when winning 3 on the bounce, and is now with Paul Nicholls.

Each Way @ 10-1 [Bet 365] BOG
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4th!

Never really looked comfortable, did run on suggesting might need further but probably more importantly softer ground
 
reet hard said:
Wissahickon has all the hallmarks of a certainty in the Winter Derby, especially with Court House to guarantee a good pace. However, there's 21K for 2nd today, and with Wm Buick in the plate, to ehsure he's ridden more judiciously, I expect him to turn arond the place form with Big Country. F/c currently pays around 11/2.

In the Hever Sprint, Gorgeous Noora has any amount of speed and, while she was never expected to beat Kachy latest, still showed enough toe to cover the first 5f in course standard time.
7/2 best.
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Well done Reet.
 
Gulliver (6.55) was runner-up to 2 smart horses in Island Of Life and Kachy, and has been thwated 3 times since by an indifferent pace and an outside draw. Neither should be a problem today and he ought to win this cosily.
3/1 generally.
Though unexposed, Sir ThomasGresham is a conceivable danger, and I've taken the f/c to cover that contigency. (20.52 b365)
 
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I actually have 5 or 6 bets lined up for today.

2.10 Fflos las, Mid Day Gun laying for a place at around 2.04
 
2.30 Leicester, Night of Sin, having a maximum lay on this. Around 2.38 at the minute. The horse did hack up over 2m on good to firm but I was always of the impression it wanted soft. It then won well over 2m3f on soft and was impressive. Today over 2m4f on good to firm. I really think it will get beat. Max lay
 
Trying to claw back some of the losses from earlier. laying and backing in the next.

6.00 Wolves, Martineo. around 2.42 and I'm laying. Dropped from 79 to 71 and won @ 7/1 last time out, back up 2. I think this race is very tricky and at such short odds I think it's worthy of a good lay.

In the same race, lucky lodge, I've back it e.w and 7/1. I think the handicapper was harsh on this horse for awhile but starting to drop slightly in the ratings, hopefully can catch a place at least for me.
 
This Martineo is being backed off the boards, into 1.95 now. I've went in again with a maximum lay, I had to at that price as I can't see it winning.

If this wins, I'm out for a week or 2 to regroup. I hope it won't come to that and get's well beat.
 
4.10 South

4 horses dominate the market and Three Weeks is readily discarded as unlikely to have the pace for this trip,at this level.
That leaves 3 horses, all lto C/D winners:

Space Bandit Early fav, and won 5l latest, but in significantlty lower class and in a time 3 seconds slower than the other 2.

Weld Al Emerat 2nd fav. Won 0-80 1/2l, but in a reasonable time for the class.

Saint Equiano 3rd in. Won 0-95 1.25l in a fair time for the class. Carded a very similar T/S to the horse above. Worst of the draw among the prnicipals, but with only 8 rnrs and a likely good pace, oughtn't to be too much of a problem.
My money's on Saint Equiano (4/1 generally)_on grounds of class and price, but it all points to being a close contest between the 2, so I've also done the rfc with a solid chance of reaping a bonus.
 
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Unlucky with your Lays Irish Goat, laying at exchange prices is a very hard game, just to prove it i'll put up a few which i think have a very good chance of getting beaten, but usually goes boobs up!
1 Gorgeous General 2.30 Sthwll, layed at 2.38, think that there are 3 or 4 which have a decent chance of beating it, mainly Piazon, Astraea and Toni's a star. Gorgeous General is also racing from a higher mark than he's been alloted in future 4lb higher.
2 Point Zero 335 Sthwll, layed at 3.95, has won twice at sthwll over 5fs but btn on the 3 occasions he's ran over 6fs(albeit only narrowly on one run). The 2nd 5f win was in a seller where he was very well in at the weights but only just beat a horse rated 22lb inferior, his other win in a novice auction was against 3 yos in the main. Don't think the 6fs quite suits him as well as 5fs and don't think this slower ground will help him get home, also races from a mark of 72 a mark he hasn't been able to win from before.
3 More Salutes 8.30 Kempton, layed at 6.0 best run lto and with his trainer in good form can see why it's relatively short in this race, but even that run falls short of a fair few others in this race imo. Can find 4/5 better chances than him and quite fancy a longish priced horse as well.

Hope i'm right but we will see.
 
reet hard said:
4.10 South

4 horses dominate the market and Three Weeks is readily discarded as unlikely to have the pace for this trip,at this level.
That leaves 3 horses, all lto C/D winners:

Space Bandit Early fav, and won 5l latest, but in significantlty lower class and in a time 3 seconds slower than the other 2.

Weld Al Emerat 2nd fav. Won 0-80 1/2l, but in a reasonable time for the class.

Saint Equiano 3rd in. Won 0-95 1.25l in a fair time for the class. Carded a very similar T/S to the horse above. Worst of the draw among the prnicipals, but with only 8 rnrs and a likely good pace, oughtn't to be too much of a problem.
My money's on Saint Equiano (4/1 generally)_on grounds of class and price, but it all points to being a close contest between the 2, so I've also done the rfc with a solid chance of reaping a bonus.
Click to expand...

Sorry about that one - in a fast run race, Saint Equiano appeared to go off too quickly, too soon from his outside draw. Bugger :thumbsdown:
 
Suzi's Connoisseur (3.05L) dotted up in a lesser race over C/D 3 runs ago, then was outclassed in a hot conditions race at Wolves. had 2 runs since over the wrong trip. Now returns to Lingfield, and the OH has kindly decided to drop him to 1lb below his winning rating.
Merhoob is the obvious danger, but a cover f/c should allow a useful profit, either way.


Edit Merhoob NR (I hadn't realised)
 
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2.00 Huntingdon, Ferrobin, around 1.65. Looks a 2 horse race and I think this horse will be too good for Sammy bill. Having a decent win bet on Ferrobin.

2.10 Leopardstown, Tombstone, around 1.98. I think the horse will get back to winning ways today. Having a decent win bet on it.

Doing a win double on the above too.

2.20 Sedgefield, Arthur Mac, around 1.48. I think the price is very very skimpy. I'll be laying this today. I think Shantaluze @ around 3.9 might get the job done but just be sticking with the lay.

Good luck to anyone betting today.
 
2nd last bet of the day for me.

2.40 Leopardstown, The red menace, around 1.95. Hefty, hefty lay for me. I'll be shocked if it gets home in front.
 
Confrontational (7.00) led all the way to win a similar class race in Ireland, but - on his first UK outing - similar tactics failed, owing to having to cross from an outside draw and being taken on for the lead by Swift Approval. Both horses filled the last 2 places, which tells its own story about the pace they went.
With the prime draw here, and no obvious pace to take him on, he looks set fair to boss this race from the off, and land a decent bet in the process. The fav, although unlucky lto, has yet to compete in a race of this class.
11/4 generally.
 
Newcastle 2:30 Forever Dylan. Dropped to a very fair mark and worth betting at 16/1.
 
I place laid him at Sedgfield looked like he blew up then ran on but couldn't get a blow in. The 25 length was an exaggeration as he was heavily eased but it's not like Micky to step a moderate horse up in class
unless he's trying to get a few more pounds off it's back.........Looks more competitive than Sedgie...place laying him again :0) but good luck
 
Forever Dylan We got this horse recently from Henry De Bromhead and he runs in Gemma's colours. He ran well for a long way on his stable debut at Sedgefield and we are hoping for further progress today

Trainer
 
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