What are you backing Today?

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Ludlow 3:00 Oxwich Bay. I fancy this one back over hurdles. He has enough form in the book for him to have a live chance, especially his placing at Cheltenham towards the end of 2017 off a very similar mark. I don't think this event will be as hard to win. I reckon he will go close with a decent round of jumping, although I am not taking those early show prices as I think they're too short. At 10/1 or bigger I will be involved.
 
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I wasn't going to have a bet in the last 8.30 Wolves, the reason being Nabeyla reached odds of 2.32. I wanted higher. It's now around 2.72 and I think at that price it's worth a decent bet. I've heard bits and pieces about this horse and it's supposed to be fairly smart. Backing now around 2.7'ish
 
Breathless Times beat better horses than these 2 ago, then disappointed lto owing to an irrregular heartbeat, and had a 2 month break afterwards. Roger Charlton seems to have sorted him since, as he travels him to Newcastle, where he holds a 55% strike rate.
7/1 generally.
 
First bet of the day. 3.25 Doncaster, Court liability. Laying this for a place, around 2.1 at the minute. Today is a much tougher race than of late and I'll be very very surprised if it can win.
 
Last bet of the night for me.

7.45 Chelmsford. Zorawar. Around 2.64 at the minute. This is a max lay for me. If it wins I'll feel the pain for a few days. The horse had a couple of good wins but I feel it's at the end of it's teather. Max lay for me.
 
Kilmarnock to beat Celtic today at Rugby Park (7/1-ish).

Celtic were in steamrolling form from after the January break until being steamrolled themselves on Thursday by Valencia. Celtic is a team that, domestically, thrives on confidence and they are simply far superior to everyone else up here but they have their frailties. One of them is the type of synthetic surface they have to play on at Killie, Livingston and Hamilton.

Rodgers tends not to risk players like Simunovic, Benkovic and Ajer on these surfaces. Benkovic is out injured anyway but it will probably be another makeshift defensive set-up, which isn't good. Brown has been in commanding form in deep midfield since the break but reverted to type the other night, playing much more negatively and when he does that the whole team loses form. If he does it again today I expect Killie to get several shots on goal, something Celtic aren't used to facing domestically.

I think it's still the case that in all league games since Stevie Clarke took over at Killie they have amassed more points than any other side including Celtic who tend not to play too well at Rugby Park anyway. There's also a chance that Celtic's motivation levels will be slightly down after both Aberdeen and the Ibrox side dropped points at home yesterday.

Obviously I want to see the Hoops rattle in five or six and stretch their lead and goal difference at the top of the table but I have huge respect for what Stevie Clarke is doing in deepest Ayrshire.

Killie did pretty much everything I'd expected from them and although conceding a 90th minute winner I reckon they justified the bet over the piece. They made Celtic work very hard.

They have another tough task tonight at Ibrox in the Cup replay, already made tougher by being denied a good penalty shout and conceding an early goal but I've taken 22/1 that they can turn it around. I still have faith in Steve Clarke's ability to rally his troops but the SFA fix was in before the game started with the appointment of Ibrox-facing officials. The governing body are desperate for whichever side plays out of Ibrox to be the dominant force in Scotland and it is a measure of how bad the club actually is that they still can't get close to Celtic in the league.

I've probably thrown my money away but I can't see Killie lying down and rolling over just because they've lost an early goal.
 
Last bet of the night for me.

7.45 Chelmsford. Zorawar. Around 2.64 at the minute. This is a max lay for me. If it wins I'll feel the pain for a few days. The horse had a couple of good wins but I feel it's at the end of it's teather. Max lay for me.


Well done -I would love to know the stats regarding David O'Meara trained favourites.
 
I'm not sure on the fav stats but what I've noticed about O'Meara is when he fancies one, he seems to head to wolves or preferably lingfield. That horse tonight was running off a pretty higher mark than just about 2 weeks ago and also upped from c6's of late to c5 tonight. If he puts it out again within 7 to 10 days in a class 6 at lingfield or wolves I'll keep a close eye on it, if not I'd say it'll be sometime before it wins again.
 
No great pace in the 6.10 @ Wolves and a plum draw, which should allow Doctor Sardonicus to emulate his 2 recent, comfortable c/d wins.
7/2 best.

edit @ 1.45 Price is now shot to bits, so it might be worth a small f/c with Orvar (currently 13.93 with b365)
 
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Thurles 3.05
Go Another One may be worth backing at 8/1 here. He disappointed in November but that was quite soon after a tough race at Cheltenham previously. He’s been given a break since and I’m happy to take the price offered in the hope he can resume progress


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Hopefully a good start to the day.

2.25 Southwell. Greyzee, laying this for the win and also laying for 2 places. Around 4.0 for the win and 2.56 for 2 places. I'd like the price a bit lower for the win, but I thought it's last run exceeded it's ability. I'll be surprises if it wins today and hopefully loses out on 2nd place too.
 
2nd last bet of the day for me and my best bet of the day.

Having a max win bet on Anytime Will Do in the 2.50 Huntingdon around 2.34 at the minute. Very classy horse and should be far too good for today's opposition. Max win bet for me without a doubt.
 
Last bet of the day for me.

4.25 Sedgefield. Jokers And Rogues, around 2.54'ish. Laying this pretty hard. I'll either get out ok for the day, or bad day at the office!
 
Looking forward to the hurdle debut of Red Force One tomorrow at Kempton [2.25]

As flat form looked useful last summer when winning 3 on the bounce, and is now with Paul Nicholls.

Each Way @ 10-1 [Bet 365] BOG
 
1.50 lingfield, Pink Flamingo around 2.62. Having a very decent win bet on this. 2.62 looks a nice price to me.
 
2.25 Lingfield, Red Phoenix, around 2.3 at the minute. I honestly can't believe this horse is such a low price. I'm laying it hard and I'll be very surprised if it wins.
 
I'm backing a couple of horses with excellent win strike rates tomorrow at Newcastle. In the Eider, I like Daklondike but the weight might stop him, and Mysteree may return to his best form but that still might not be enough. However, West Of The Edge gets the nod. He was second last year on a three pound higher mark. His chasing record is a healthy 5/23, so somewhere between 20-25 percent. I reckon with the rub of the green and a clear round of jumping he'll win tomorrow for trainer Richard Newland. He has the right profile.
 
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Aristo Du Plessis can win the 3:55. He has an excellent strike rate, (9/25), near enough 40 percent, won over 93K in prize money. Tomorrow looks another opportunity to notch up another victory.
 
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A good Frenchie from Macaire's yard, now with the good doctor, Richard Newland, called Rose Sea Has, having its first run over here in Kempton's 2:25. Worth a bet I reckon.
 
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Kempton
1.15 Champagne Champ 14/1 e/way (BOG)
2.25 Song For Someone 12/1 taken e/way
3.00 Scarlet Dragon 7/2 (BOG) e/way - I think this can give the odds - on fav a scare or more.

Newcastle
2.40 Progress Drive 12/1 (BOG) e/way

Chepstow
4.50 Exmoor Mist 8/1 (BOG) e/way
 
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