What are you backing Today?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Desert Orchid said:
Dipping a tentative toe in the murk of midweek all-weather effluence at Kempton this afternoon.

I got a tracker alert last week for a horse that ran in France, chose to ignore it and it pished up at 9/1. An alert came through yesterday for today so I might as well use it as betting fodder.

Kempton 3.55 Nazeef. According to the alert it was 5/2 but it's a bit weak this morning and I had no trouble getting 7/2. On RPRs it only has 3lbs to find but it was on a steep curve last season and could be better again by some way.
Click to expand...

Nice one DO
 
Nicely done, DO.

I like the look of Troubadour tomorrow in Newcastle's 3:55. I see it going close. This is what I recently wrote about his form from last season.

"Troubadour is trained by Michael Dods and had a fantastic two year old campaign last year. He progressed through the handicaps nicely. He then finished second in the big two year old race at York. He gave the third horse Rose Of Kildare six pounds that day and Rose Of Kildare has franked the form well by winning two group three's on the bounce.

Troubadour's final run last year was when second to an ex Richard Fahey horse who has now moved to Joseph O Brien called (6) Summer Sands when giving him weight. Summer Sands actually looks a horse to follow in Ireland in his own right this season as he won quite handsomely against an in form horse that day at Redcar."
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
100% record for the new Flat season. :lol:
Click to expand...

I might have to make that 100% for the AW...

I got another alert yesterday for today.

I left it till this morning to wait for the BOGs. The price wouldn't normally be my bag unless I thought it should be evens or shorter, all the more so in a handicap, but since I'm flush...

Nwm 5.20 Magic J. The best price last night was 2/1 so it was easy enough to hold off. I managed to get 9/4 without the BOG and it's as short as 7/4 and blue elsewhere. Oisin Murphy rides, which can't be bad, and it's a low-class race. It's off 85 and I tracked it in the belief it will develop into a 100+ sort.
 
Troubadour was dissapointing. I think he can do a lot better than that when running back on turf. Every horse can be forgiven one awful run I suppose. I will keep the faith.

Breathtaking Look runs tomorrow. Hopefully she runs a good race. I think she will train on and her form from last season is well up to scratch. Jim Crowley rides.


Good luck with your one coming up, DO.
 
Last edited:
Magic J never looked like troubling the impressive winner and might have a mentality issue. That's the first race I've seen today. I'm just wondering if there's a golden highway against the near rail.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Magic J never looked like troubling the impressive winner and might have a mentality issue. That's the first race I've seen today. I'm just wondering if there's a golden highway against the near rail.
Click to expand...

The 1.50 today is only the second race I've seen. Again, a front runner skips away (at long odds). Track bias favouring front-runners?
 
It'll suit Breathtaking Look as I assume she'll be up there from the go especially dropping a furlong to 6F!

I reckon Reet might be on the wrong one of the stable pair.

Time will tell. :)
 
Last edited:
Newmarket Saturday

1:15 I am liking the improving mare who is bottom weight ridden by John Egan called Restless Rose (NAP) in the opener. She could be well ahead of the handicapper.

1:50 Hareem Queen E/W progressed through the ranks from handicaps to winning a listed race last year. She can run very well and 16/1 is certainly a fair price on offer.

4:45 Roger Varian trains Nahaar and he is a worthy favourite later in the day. He should be very hard to beat.

5:20 Stone Circle looks a huge price at 20/1 for Michael Bell and Fallon. He's been given a fair-enough opening handicap mark and Fallon claims the three. I can only imagine he's such a big price because of the competative nature of the race though I think he will make odds of 20/1 look too big. He'll be nearer first than last.
 
Last edited:
3.35 Nwm - Mum's Tipple ew 14/1 w/o Pinatubo. Not many bookies are going ew in this market and the 18/1 elsewhere is win-only. I reckon 14/1 is about the right price for Mum's Tipple in the full market so in my head I'm getting the fourth place. I've also taken 33/1 to four places in the main market as I wasn't aware the fourth place was available until a moment ago.
 
Waldkonig looks hot in the 3.00 Nwm but with Godolphin in such hot form I'm going to take Volkan Star (ew 10/1) to make him work very hard. 4/1 ew without the favourite might also be a sound investment.
 
My picks have drifted and drifted. It doesn't fill me with confidence but I suppose horses don't know their prices.
 
I can't do much worse tomorrow than I did today!

At Haydock I'll take a chance on Kynren in the listed race (3:25) by putting him in my each way patent. He has top handicap form from last season and may actually be good enough for this. The early prices have him at 12's wheres I reckon he should be a 6's or 7's chance.

5:00. My Ukulele looks to be on a lovely mark to exploit. She can run a big race.

Newmarket 2:25. I reckon Protected Guest will out run the odds. Three places on offer which I like.
 
Last edited:
Back to basics for me tomorrow.

I fancy Joseph O Briens Summer Sands at Naas (5.05). An improving sort who won a listed race well last season. Troubadour never franked the form a few days ago at Newcastle but I don't think he ran anywhere near his best so I am not worried about that.

Arch Moon (Haydock 3:25) should improve enough from the gelding operarion based on what he did last season. Adrian Nicholls trains Strawman but he disappointed last time out and he's been gelded since so it wouldn't surprise me if he bounced back to chase Arch Moon home. He looks the main danger. A reverse forecast maybe..

3/1 each so I guess a win double looks the logical thing to do.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top