What are you backing Today?

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Diligent Lady 4.30W skated home in a well run c/d novice on her 2nd start, recording a high s/f in the process. Hasn't lasted home on 2 stiffer tracks since, but gets the chance to show her speed again today.
16/1 b365
 
reet hard said:
Diligent Lady 4.30W skated home in a well run c/d novice on her 2nd start, recording a high s/f in the process. Hasn't lasted home on 2 stiffer tracks since, but gets the chance to show her speed again today.
16/1 b365
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Fell out of the stalls;ran green & last most of the way, picked up and finished 3rd @11/1. Phew!
Sharp track & faster ground, she'll do OK, sometime soon.
 
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8.20 Newcastle-Summer Heights

Each Way @ 14-1 [Bet 365]

Been ridden like a non trier this season..
 
One I mentioned before, Arnold, is out tonight at Newcastle.

Should be hard to beat.
 
I've got a couple of these wrong recently but I can make excuses for them so I'm already creating an excuse bank for Star Of Emaraaty tomorrow in the 2.10.

I have heavily availed myself each-way of the 12/1 on offer as I was worried if it would be a backable price. I was seriously anticipating 6/4 or shorter.

It's top-rated on ORs and RPRs and I have it miles clear on my time ratings. And I mean MILES.

I would seriously consider upsetting Slim by putting it on his Will Win thread but I have allowed discretion to get the better part of valour and shat out out of going win-only, so it's a hefty each-way bet but I'll still be seriously disappointed if this one doesn't hack up.

And I mean hack up.

And for good measure the double with Yazaman, another good thing, in the sales race will pay 59/1.

Edit to add:

To say I'm balls deep in these is meaningless as I'm a midget but you get my drift.
 
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It's a relatively quiet betting day for me but one I'm very much looking forward to.

I do have a lot involved in the aforementioned 2yos but compared with last weekend when I had bets in something like ten races today is quiet.

I hope Logician does enough for bookies to take him seriously for the Arc and with Zaaki out I could probably ride him to victory. I'm tempted to look at the winning distance market. I can see him being asked to stretch in the last couple of furlongs at this trip.

I'm very tempted by the 6/4 on offer about Believe In Love. She totally destroyed a decent field last time. They gave it as soft that day but my time ratings are arrived at via a minus going allowance pointing to good ground at worst. Maybe there was a stronger tailwind than described. I think they also went very fast on the day. The first three at the finish were among the last four early in the race. Entangling was detached in last being niggled on and off by Turner. She got to the winner's quarters about two out but was ultimately beaten over 17 lengths. Mondain was held up too and tried to follow the winner through the race but was left for dead as well.

Whether Believe In Love could have found more had she been asked a more serious question - she was really only shaken up - is a bit of an unknown but her RPRs this season read 73, 79, 80, 96, 101, 112 and the comments in her most recent three read, "comfortably", "readily" and "easily, impressive". Plot those figures on a graph and you'd be forgiven for thinking you were looking at something to do with coronavirus cases this week.

With Alpinista out she really only has Monica Sheriff to beat and while the latter is an admirable filly and fancied by many good judges for the Ebor, I can't really fancy her to give Believe In Love a serious race.

I think she is an odds-on shot all day long and again might look at the winning distance market.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've got a couple of these wrong recently but I can make excuses for them so I'm already creating an excuse bank for Star Of Emaraaty tomorrow in the 2.10.

I have heavily availed myself each-way of the 12/1 on offer as I was worried if it would be a backable price. I was seriously anticipating 6/4 or shorter.

It's top-rated on ORs and RPRs and I have it miles clear on my time ratings. And I mean MILES.

I would seriously consider upsetting Slim by putting it on his Will Win thread but I have allowed discretion to get the better part of valour and shat out out of going win-only, so it's a hefty each-way bet but I'll still be seriously disappointed if this one doesn't hack up.

And I mean hack up.

And for good measure the double with Yazaman, another good thing, in the sales race will pay 59/1.

Edit to add:

To say I'm balls deep in these is meaningless as I'm a midget but you get my drift.
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Agree on Star Of Emaraaty. Good luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've got a couple of these wrong recently but I can make excuses for them so I'm already creating an excuse bank for Star Of Emaraaty tomorrow in the 2.10.

I have heavily availed myself each-way of the 12/1 on offer as I was worried if it would be a backable price. I was seriously anticipating 6/4 or shorter.

It's top-rated on ORs and RPRs and I have it miles clear on my time ratings. And I mean MILES.

I would seriously consider upsetting Slim by putting it on his Will Win thread but I have allowed discretion to get the better part of valour and shat out out of going win-only, so it's a hefty each-way bet but I'll still be seriously disappointed if this one doesn't hack up.

And I mean hack up.
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OUCH!

My gut tells me she hasn't run her race but I'll need to see how the numbers crunch.

Maybe the ground (shouldn't have been a problem), maybe not over Newmarket (less than six weeks since the big run so could have bounced) but certainly looked after when the response wasn't there.
 
End of season 2yo filly races DO. There's always a chance one or more are going to improve and the winner and third today were both one from one coming into the race

Disappointing that Dubai Fountain so easily turned the form around with SOE though but that's typical of a Johnston horse for you
 
I get where you're coming from, wilsonl, but I checked back through the history of the race. It is littered with top-rated horses who seriously underperformed on the day. This is just another.

I was never happy with Yazaman either. He always seemed to be struggling to go the pace, which you wouldn't expect of a horse with the highest speed rating.

And Believe In Love was never travelling convincingly although I was saying out loud through the first half of the race t let her stride on and make it a real test.

If there was one day this week I was really looking forward to it was today.

It's turning into a bit of a nightmare.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I get where you're coming from, wilsonl, but I checked back through the history of the race. It is littered with top-rated horses who seriously underperformed on the day. This is just another.

I was never happy with Yazaman either. He always seemed to be struggling to go the pace, which you wouldn't expect of a horse with the highest speed rating.

And Believe In Love was never travelling convincingly although I was saying out loud through the first half of the race t let her stride on and make it a real test.

If there was one day this week I was really looking forward to it was today.

It's turning into a bit of a nightmare.
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......but with a happy ending! I think that a cluster of good horses today didn’t get near giving their running. It’s getting to that time of the season when many start going over the top and calling it a day. I find I’m looking more and more towards the jumpers already.
 
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I've just taken 10/1 Jawwaal for the Portland. I might have done well to get that as it's shorter and blue just about everywhere else and strikes as the type that might halve in price by the off. I haven't checked yet but I suspect maybe Simon Rowlands has put him up as he did at York last time, provoking a big gamble but the horse was given an easy time of it after travelling best of all.

It comes with a health warning, though. I don't have a good record in this race. Captain Colby in 2016 and Hogmaneigh in 2008 were my last two winners.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've just taken 10/1 Jawwaal for the Portland. I might have done well to get that as it's shorter and blue just about everywhere else and strikes as the type that might halve in price by the off. I haven't checked yet but I suspect maybe Simon Rowlands has put him up as he did at York last time, provoking a big gamble but the horse was given an easy time of it after travelling best of all.

It comes with a health warning, though. I don't have a good record in this race. Captain Colby in 2016 and Hogmaneigh in 2008 were my last two winners.
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Desert, you seem to make a very thorough analysis which must come from a comprehensive and personal data base with your own (time based) ratings ? Very impressed - must take many midnight hours.
 
Thanks, Barjon. I've been doing it for over 40 years but don't spend as much time on it now as I did when I was younger and information wasn't as freely available as it is now.

I've learned over the years to be more selective about the races I analyse, which is why you won't find me getting involved in discussions about ordinary midweek racing or joining in threads that don't hold specific interest to me.

It's been a balancing act over the decades, trying to balance work, family, social life and racing. Spinning plates at times and making people round about me less than happy, to be honest.

The data base isn't mine. I just access and use what's out there.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks, Barjon. I've been doing it for over 40 years but don't spend as much time on it now as I did when I was younger and information wasn't as freely available as it is now.

I've learned over the years to be more selective about the races I analyse, which is why you won't find me getting involved in discussions about ordinary midweek racing or joining in threads that don't hold specific interest to me.

It's been a balancing act over the decades, trying to balance work, family, social life and racing. Spinning plates at times and making people round about me less than happy, to be honest.

The data base isn't mine. I just access and use what's out there.
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Ah yes, those days before computers. I used to rate 2yo at various courses. Chester was the best where experience of the course counted for a lot (still does). You had to go to see, but it was worth it to spot newcomers to Chester who found out how to handle it, finishing well and on the heels of the placed horses. They tended to be good prices next time they ran there and invariably ran extremely well, but modern communications means they are less dark than they were. Oops, sorry, reminiscing.
 
I'm hopeful today. Although I ended up nicely in profit yesterday it was an uncomfortable journey so it's significantly dampened my enthusiasm and chastened my confidence.

These are extracts from my private analysis for today which I wrote on Wednesday and edited this morning (edits in red):

1.40
I’m loath to oppose Alfaatik who did us a turn at York and I can’t muster up any enthusiasm for anything else. The worries with Alfaatik are a possible bounce and the step up in trip, and that’s enough to make me baulk at the price of around 5/2 as I write. Alfaatik is now 15/8 tops. If the money is right he’ll win but he isn’t for me at the price. Instead, a small win (no ew available) bet on Hochfeld at 17/2 without Alfaatik will give me an interest. I might try the f/c nearer the off.

2.10
I like the improvers for this and would narrow them down further to Sunset Breeze (best odds 7/1 on Wednesday evening), Ghalyoon (9/2) and Tranchee (12/1) against the field. Tranchee gets a big mark-up last time after going clear too soon before folding late. His claimer is making a name for himself and he’s officially 2lbs well in. At the prices he might be a good each-way bet and could end up a gamble. Sunset Breeze is officially 5lbs well in and on a curve for a trainer who is worth following when he gets them on a roll. Ghalyoon also gets a big mark-up for a strong late finish last time but steps back in trip a little for the first time. Maybe that’s at the suggestion of O’Neill who rode him that day when the horse was very keen at the back. Given his connections, you’d imagine he’s considered some way better than an 88 animal. I might divvy up a point between all three at best possible odds and try a permed forecast, just in case. They are now best prices 5/1, 5/2 and 7/1 respectively so I should have been braver and gone in on Wednesday. I can’t narrow them down any further so will leave the race alone. I’m just wondering what I would have done today if I hadn’t known those early prices. I’ll mull over that and maybe take an interest nearer the time.

2.40

I’m hoping Sacred takes this and at 3/1 I’ll be backing up that hope with cash. A win will be a big boost for my ante-post 1000 Guineas bet (50/1) on Miss Amulet who beat her in the Lowther and who has this week been bought by Coolmore. I have Sacred 15lbs clear on time ratings and won’t be looking past her. Again, the price is gone. She’s now 7/4 tops but that might still be value if my figures are correct. At least I had the foresight to take her on Wednesday in the double with One Ruler at the ‘big’ prices. If the double comes off it will be ample compensation.

3.15
I’m not sure what to make of this race which is a G2 in name only. If they intend to take Red Verdon over for the Melbourne Cup, they won’t want a penalty, assuming one would accrue. Other than that, with Dettori up he has to be taken seriously. I don’t fancy anything else so am leaving the race alone.

3.45
I did this race as part of my project and have backed two. The project horse is One Ruler, which I backed at 4/1 on Wednesday evening in anticipation of a price collapse. He won the race represented by Latest Generation on Wednesday and that one was backed from 13/8 into 8/11. This is obviously a much better race but I have One Ruler 15lbs clear on time ratings with every chance that he will improve again. I think he’s probably under the radar of the handicapper at just 96, a rating that would be based on the history of the Sandown race he won. Apollo One is second-top on ORs and the longest priced (14/1) of the fanciable contenders. I took that each-way to 4 places (Sky) on Wednesday. The price has indeed collapsed to 7/4 tops and as short as 11/8 in places so I’m pleased to have got on early as well as at 7/2 with the double with Sacred at 3/1 (the best double prices at the time). Apollo One is 12s tops and would still interest me today if I weren’t already on. There’s another runner from the Latest Generation-One Ruler form running today, in the 2.00 at Sandown, called Maximal. When the tracker alert came through yesterday evening it was 4/7 but it’s down to 2/5. The treble with Sacred* pays over 8/1 so I’ll take that too. If there is a weak link in the treble it is probably One Ruler given where he stands on ORs but that’s a chance I can take.


Fingers crossed for a good day.

*should read 'with Sacred and One Ruler'
 
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I’m with you on Sacred 13/8 (down to 11/8 now). Got a slight worry that Mohawk King is also in my tracker and Frankie booking is maybe significant so got an EW saver on that.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
2.10
I like the improvers for this and would narrow them down further to Sunset Breeze (best odds 7/1 on Wednesday evening), Ghalyoon (9/2) and Tranchee (12/1) against the field. Tranchee gets a big mark-up last time after going clear too soon before folding late. His claimer is making a name for himself and he’s officially 2lbs well in. At the prices he might be a good each-way bet and could end up a gamble. Sunset Breeze is officially 5lbs well in and on a curve for a trainer who is worth following when he gets them on a roll. Ghalyoon also gets a big mark-up for a strong late finish last time but steps back in trip a little for the first time. Maybe that’s at the suggestion of O’Neill who rode him that day when the horse was very keen at the back. Given his connections, you’d imagine he’s considered some way better than an 88 animal. I might divvy up a point between all three at best possible odds and try a permed forecast, just in case.
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Fuxake.

How can you be so right and not make a fuckin penny on a race!
 
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I can't help thinking Sacred would have won if she'd been in the other group. The side-on replay suggested she maybe made her move too soon and she seemed to take a strange stride a furlong out.

I'm not as disappointed as I was about yesterday's reverses, partly because my expectations were suitably lowered and partly because I still think she was probably the best horse in the race.

Hopes for Miss Amulet remain intact for now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I can't help thinking Sacred would have won if she'd been in the other group. The side-on replay suggested she maybe made her move too soon and she seemed to take a strange stride a furlong out.

I'm not as disappointed as I was about yesterday's reverses, partly because my expectations were suitably lowered and partly because I still think she was probably the best horse in the race.

Hopes for Miss Amulet remain intact for now.
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Maybe, bit irritating because the winner was also in my tracker in a minor role due to Simon Rowlands note of exceptional sectionals -
“ UBETTABELIEVEIT (Nigel Tinkler) is a fast and useful juvenile from a somewhat unexpected source, but you better believe it that he can run a bit. Total Performance Data sectionals – available in the Results Section of this site – have him overcoming a pace bias when bursting clear late on in a novice at Doncaster last time, with his last two splits of 11.03s then 11.46s red-hot in the circumstances. His striding (also in those results) suggests he may be better at 6f ”

I saved with the wrong one!
 
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