What are you backing Today?

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I did get some money back as I was prudent enough to take the Sacred/One Ruler double ew at the big prices but nowhere near enough to cover the day's outlay but when you bet an 18/1 shot you accept it's 1/18 it won't win and I got that price about what ended up something like 9/2 at the off.

If I keep doing that I'll end up in front in the long term.

Still disappointed, though, and kicking myself about that handicap!
 
The Irish Champion's an intriguing race, with the odds-on Ghaiyyath susceptible to a pace challenge. Maybe Magical will take him on, with the intent of providing the strong pace that Japan (7/1, Hills) needs at this trip. Will keep stakes small though, as he might just be on his way to the Arc.
 
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I'm on Sottsass for the ICW at 10s and 12s for 3 places. I think these conditions, 10f on decent ground, are close to his optimum and he'd have been campaigned all year for his Autumn targets. Instinct tells me the fav is vulnerable not that long after his Juddmonte win. Magical I can't have but Japan like the selection is probably better over 10f so you can maybe forgive his dud over 12 lto. He's worth small cover.

The Park Stakes is interesting and I'm willing to forgive Molatham his run in Deauville. It's possible that's as good as he is but that track has funny ground and on his Jersey effort 6/1 is too big. Wichita is too short and One Master was well beat last time out. Limato respected and he's in a couple of multiples with the Godolphin horse who runs in the National.

I thought 100/30 about Santiago was very fair. I backed him at Goodwood because the WFA is overly generous and whilst he was a bit disappointing I think taking on that calibre of older horse not long after runs at Royal Ascot and the Curragh was tough for a 3yo. He should be much better today and will stay. I can't have Pyledriver staying and the others are a bit meh. Hukum's form was let down by Alignak yesterday and the JOB horse looks a 2 miler+

I also have Chindit and Peaceful in multiples with horses that run on Sunday
 
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I can't see past Gaiyyath myself. There has to be a danger that they’re taking him to the well too often but there’s also the chance that he isn’t taking much out of himself in his races, so superior is he. After he won at Newmarket (I think) they said he only lost 3kg in the race. His mid-race pace is maybe just too strong for everything else and Buick is fast becoming the best judge of pace next to Dettori.
 
That Juddmonte though Dessie, was it that good? Magical imo is better elsewhere (was below form in the YO behind Enable the previous year) and Lord North is a Group 2 beast. I think his Eclipse was a fair bit better. Plus three week gap is a doubt at his price.
 
To be fair to Japan, Euro, there was a valid excuse for his KG run. I'd still have him as a 12f horse btw; just suffered a poor trip in last year's Arc.
 
Euronymous said:
That Juddmonte though Dessie, was it that good? Magical imo is better elsewhere (was below form in the YO behind Enable the previous year) and Lord North is a Group 2 beast. I think his Eclipse was a fair bit better. Plus three week gap is a doubt at his price.
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York can throw up some iffy performances and I wouldn't judge Gaiyyath on just that. I agree about the Eclipse and I think Leopardstown will suit him a lot better in the sense that he can take them close to the edge of their comfort zone in the back straight, get a good breather round the bend and kick away in the straight. If he's got a lead on them after the bend I can't see them getting near him.
 
In this 2.50 I'm not sure there's as much between the two Hamdans as the betting suggests. I tried to get 20/1 Mubjir and put it on the longshot thread but py the time I clicked on the price it was 18/1 and by the time I entered my stake 16/1.
 
reet hard said:
The Irish Champion's an intriguing race, with the odds-on Ghaiyyath susceptible to a pace challenge. Maybe Magical will take him on, with the intent of providing the strong pace that Japan (7/1, Hills) needs at this trip. Will keep stakes small though, as he might just be on his way to the Arc.
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Ghaiyyath overrated, by plenty who should know better, on the back of 3 easy leads. Proof positive that interpreting sectionals solely through maths is not the answer.
Japan won't have done his Arc odds any harm,either.
 
Aye, they'll somehow still find a way to rate him 'best horse in the world'.:lol:
 
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Though he has a 8-11 Fav to beat tomorrow I think this newcomer will run well

3.05 Wolverhampton-Naamoos

Each Way @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
 
Desert Orchid said:
First numbers:

Using Sotsass on his OR of 119 gives

Magical 120 (cf OR 121)
Gaiyyath 121 (cf 130)
Armory 119 (cf OR 112)
Click to expand...


Yeah, I think Magical has run to the same level as last year more or less. Amazing she won considering that and how much of a better renewal it looked on paper. I can't believe Armoury did my Sottsass place money.
 
Another bet for Sha Tin [Hong Kong] this morning, following my favourite jockey there Karis Teetan

10.10-Multimillion

Each Way @ 8-1 [Unibet]...5 Places
 
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Liberty Beach 3.10 ran the race of his life in the King's Stand & has the pace and the draw to improve on that here.
8/1 4places, Betfair
 
Desert Orchid said:
First numbers:

Using Sotsass on his OR of 119 gives

Magical 120 (cf OR 121)
Gaiyyath 121 (cf 130)
Armory 119 (cf OR 112)
Click to expand...

RPRs from yesterday:

Magical 120 (cf previous career best RPR 124)
Gaiyyath 122 (cf 131)
Armory 119 (cf 115)
Sottsass 119 (cf 123)

It's hard to get away from the conclusion that Gaiyyath has run a good half a stone below form for whatever reason. My gut says it's one G1 too many too soon.
 
On a line through Enable it's crystal that he's better than Magical.
Main bet today is Port Guillaume in the GPdP. He's impressed both starts this season and looks the best of the field.
I also like Master of the Seas in the National Stakes. The way he finished last time out was eye catching and imo he should be fav. I thought 10/3 was way overs.
Have to take on Stradivarius over 12f and Way to Paris looks the obvious one. We know he likes the track and he's been in good form all year.
 
I've only just started looking at the Longchamp card.

I had no idea Serpentine was running and no idea how he can be on offer at 100/30. I think that's an insane price unless he's known to be below form. A fit and well Serpentine cannot lose this race and I can't imagine 'the lads' letting that price last. If they do it would suggest there's a problem with the horse.

Serpentine, for me, is an above-average Derby winner and should be no better than evens.
 
Euronymous said:
On a line through Enable it's crystal that he's better than Magical.
Main bet today is Port Guillaume in the GPdP. He's impressed both starts this season and looks the best of the field.
I also like Master of the Seas in the National Stakes. The way he finished last time out was eye catching and imo he should be fav. I thought 10/3 was way overs.
Have to take on Stradivarius over 12f and Way to Paris looks the obvious one. We know he likes the track and he's been in good form all year.
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Ghaiyyath's man
Ghaiyyath's never been.properly taken on before,so ratings prior to that are meaningless.
Agree about the Golphin horse in the National Stakes though.
 
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