What are you backing Today?

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Tom Marquand admitted he probably made too much use of Nahaarr, in the Steward's Cup - wish I'd have picked that up.
 
One bet in the last race at Sha Tin this morning

10.45-Savvy Nine

Each Way @ 15-2 [William Hill] 4 places
 
Intrigued by Firepower 3.00C; 170k yearling, won first-time up then ran in 3 high class races without threatening again. However, did show enough early speed in the gp2 Mill Reef to suggest a drop back in trip may be in his favour. Gelded shortly afterwards and not seen until today.
That he runs for this 12k pot, rather than an easier 7k race tomorrow, offers encouragement for his chances. May be flying a kite, but has the profile of a ready horse to me.
12/1 B365
 
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I'm experimenting with a couple today.

I don't usually look at the non-terrestrial stuff, all-weather or ordinary Sunday racing but am having a pop at the two more valuable races at Chelmsford.

Blown By Wind has carried my cash more than once this season but lost all chance at the start before finishing well. He's 11/1 today but I reckon that's like 1/10 he'ss mess up again at the stalls and I'm not convinced that's the case. at some point MJ will sort out this issue and he will take advantage of a lenient mark.

Firepower makes his 3yo debut against a couple of improvers but who are rising up up the ratings. Their curve will flatten soon. There has to be a chance that Firepower, who was running in Group races at two is better than a 90 handicapper. There's obviously been a reason behind the extended absence but what if he'd had a normal campaign? He might have started six months ago, ignoring lockdown obviously, and risen through the ranks himself. There are still a couple of decent sprint handicaps in the last couple of months of the season that he can aim for and he'll probably need to be higher than 90 to get in. At 12/1 today it's worth a small risk, as is the double.
 
Champion jockey Brian Hughes trundles off to Plumpton for the one ride on Jamacho in the 2:50 as he bids for a five timer. Carrying another penalty but Charlie Longsdon has another couple of runners on the card with a competent claimer up so he doesn’t seem too bothered about taking some weight off him. Drifting a bit in the market, though - 5/2 to 7/2 - which is a bit of a concern and may put me off if it keeps going.
 
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Now 4/1 but I’m hoping he’s still ahead of the handicapper. The drift is a concern but I think his market rivals best form is in lower grade races


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Desert Orchid said:
I'm experimenting with a couple today.

I don't usually look at the non-terrestrial stuff, all-weather or ordinary Sunday racing but am having a pop at the two more valuable races at Chelmsford.

Blown By Wind has carried my cash more than once this season but lost all chance at the start before finishing well. He's 11/1 today but I reckon that's like 1/10 he'ss mess up again at the stalls and I'm not convinced that's the case. at some point MJ will sort out this issue and he will take advantage of a lenient mark.

Firepower makes his 3yo debut against a couple of improvers but who are rising up up the ratings. Their curve will flatten soon. There has to be a chance that Firepower, who was running in Group races at two is better than a 90 handicapper. There's obviously been a reason behind the extended absence but what if he'd had a normal campaign? He might have started six months ago, ignoring lockdown obviously, and risen through the ranks himself. There are still a couple of decent sprint handicaps in the last couple of months of the season that he can aim for and he'll probably need to be higher than 90 to get in. At 12/1 today it's worth a small risk, as is the double.
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Looking at the positives, it's an experiment worth binning :lol:
 
barjon said:
Champion jockey Brian Hughes trundles off to Plumpton for the one ride on Jamacho in the 2:50 as he bids for a five timer. Carrying another penalty but Charlie Longsdon has another couple of runners on the card with a competent claimer up so he doesn’t seem too bothered about taking some weight off him. Drifting a bit in the market, though - 5/2 to 7/2 - which is a bit of a concern and may put me off if it keeps going.
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Yes, the market turned out to tell the story - Jamacho drifted from 5/2 to 4/1 (which is quite a lot in my book) and the final favourite (who won) strengthened from 6/1 to 100/30. Long experience has taught me not to back drifters - some go on to win but most don’t.
 
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Couple of experimental ew's @ Leicester:
2.00 First Lott 7/1
2.55 Rio Ronaldo 22/1
(Would've had a go at the 3.05, but the fav looks a laydown).
 
I think Willie John is worth a go at Goodwood. This is a step down in class and his best form has been at this track. Oppo seems tres ropey certainly in comparison to the rivals he faced in the Golden Mile.
 
Euronymous said:
I think Willie John is worth a go at Goodwood. This is a step down in class and his best form has been at this track. Oppo seems tres ropey certainly in comparison to the rivals he faced in the Golden Mile.
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I was thinking along similar lines last night, Euro, but ended up leaving the race alone.
 
Euronymous said:
I think Willie John is worth a go at Goodwood. This is a step down in class and his best form has been at this track. Oppo seems tres ropey certainly in comparison to the rivals he faced in the Golden Mile.
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Golden Mile was a much stronger pace than is likely here, and the bulk of his form is over further. He'll be outpaced at some stage, imo.
Dawaam for me, now he's drifted to 9/2.
 
In the 2.25 at Newmarket, I reckon Caspian Queen has at least as good a chance as anything ahead of her in the market so 9/1 strikes me as pretty sound value but 8/1 to four places (Sky) in a 9-runner race just has to be bitten.
 
I like to oppose a braveheart shortie in listed/group races and Mildenberger is a juicy candidate today in the Rose Bowl. I've gone with Ghostwatch who was disappointing in the Ebor but I can give a pass there given the poor ground. His previous run when 3rd in France was well advertised by the 2nd running well behind Call the Wind in the Kergorlay and 11/2 is fair. Withold I fear more than the fav tbh.
 
I wouldn't oppose it for that sole reason, Euro, but I wouldn't back it at today's price. It's top on my figures so deserves to be favourite but it's very tight between the four of them so the market is probably wrong.

I wouldn't back Withhold at 2/1 either so Ghostwatch and Ranch Hand are probably very good value at 11/2 and 9/1 respectively. Ghostwatch owes me from the Ebor too. Ranch Hand was 11/2f for the Ces last year but ran too free. His form over 14f this year doesn't convince me that today's trip will suit and Ghostwatch's dosage profile is much more loaded towards stamina so Ghostwatch will carry some sickness insurance for me too.

Same destination, different route :lol:
 
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