What are you backing Today?

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Tidal Point 1.30P was a closing 2nd in a better race than this at a heavy ground Haydock, last June.
Hasn't encountered proper cut since, but worth an ew pop at B365's 28/1 today.
 
Celcius 2.50L has a propensity to pull too hard, if the first-time hood does what it's applied for, he should have the legs of these.
5/1 B365 & Hills (Oddschecker kaput at the mo.)
N/R
 
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Eagle Court3.10N ran a new pb latest, and ought to improve again for this somewhat stffer test.
11/2 generally.
 
Tintern Theatre an interesting runner at Ludlow 3.20
Off for nearly 2 years but 10lb below where he left off and 12lb below the mark he won a better race than this off at Kempton in 2017.
Obviously has risks attached though


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viking said:
Tintern Theatre an interesting runner at Ludlow 3.20
Off for nearly 2 years but 10lb below where he left off and 12lb below the mark he won a better race than this off at Kempton in 2017.
Obviously has risks attached though


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Riot 7.30K just failed to last home against Tammani (levels) at Sandown last July with the rest nowhere. That horse now races off 106.
Riot subsequently broke his maiden around the sharper track at Kempton. It may be significant this 850k yearling reurns to that he returns to the same C&D this evening (all runs on RH tracks). JG usually knows what he's doing with this type, so my money's following him.
11/2 generally.
 
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Small ew on Mews House 4.10S; iffy draw, but plenty of pace on his side.
20/1 & drifting at the mo.
 
Naswaary 4.10N has never raced on soft ground, but his sole win came on g/s at a stiff Salibury. Has the perfect acttion for it, though, and the way he won that race (10f) suggest he'll improve plenty for today's trip & ground.
Taken the 14/1 - 5 places, with Hills.
 
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You're one hell of an enthusiastic punter, Reet. Good luck. :)

Newmarket 1.50

Burning Cash. He improved markedly from his first to second run when 4th at 150/1 the last day. He took a keen hold then, was short of room, but stayed on well in the final furlong. The stronger the gallop the better his chance. It's possible soft ground will mitigate some of the out-and-out front runners in this line up over the trip of five furlongs, making slightly more of a test. I envisage him running past a few horses in the final furlong.

York 2.05

A stab in the dark on Garden Oasis each way, who won wearing first time cheekpieces last time. He wears them again stepping up in class. Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute, its possible there's a good handicap in him I reckon. He's on that type of exploitable rating of 80 to go close. He won't lose for being badly handicapped that's for sure.
 
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I've been musing over backing Pogo in the Challenge Stakes all week but the ground is a major turn off. It's also fairly competitive with Happy Power and Glourious Journey running well in recent starts.

So my sole bet is Magic Lilly in the Pride Stakes. I think Frankonia is one of these Gosden horses that the layers make fav for races just based on where they are trained. Don't see the form at all. Magic Lilly owns the best form in this race courtesy of her run behind Terebellum and Queen Power here in June. She was poor at Ascot over a mile the time after but that race featured a massive pace collapse and she was prominent throughout. I got 5s last night and 9/2 is still perfectly acceptable.
 
Main bet of the day for me is Strait Of Hormuz, 4.10 Nwm. I've had to sacrifice the extra place for the sake of getting 14/1 as money has started to come for it.

Earlier I wrote elsewhere:

This is usually a good race and in terms of value wouldn’t be far off normal, unlike some of the mega heritage handicaps this season. The Wokingham, for example, was worth only about £40k to the winner. There has to be a fair chance that a lot of these will have been targeting this race for some time. They’re probably all on curves so I’m going to play safe enough and stick with Strait Of Hormuz who is in pole position on my figures and possibly on as steep a curve as anything. He stayed on strongly last time to beat Derevo who was many people’s pick for the Cambridgeshire on that form (top-rated with Timeform) and this extra distance should suit. He has winning form in soft too. He’s probably over-priced because he isn’t in a big stable (16/1 available). I’ll settle for him each-way against the field at the best place terms available and hope for the best.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Main bet of the day for me is Strait Of Hormuz, 4.10 Nwm. I've had to sacrifice the extra place for the sake of getting 14/1 as money has started to come for it.

Earlier I wrote elsewhere:

This is usually a good race and in terms of value wouldn’t be far off normal, unlike some of the mega heritage handicaps this season. The Wokingham, for example, was worth only about £40k to the winner. There has to be a fair chance that a lot of these will have been targeting this race for some time. They’re probably all on curves so I’m going to play safe enough and stick with Strait Of Hormuz who is in pole position on my figures and possibly on as steep a curve as anything. He stayed on strongly last time to beat Derevo who was many people’s pick for the Cambridgeshire on that form (top-rated with Timeform) and this extra distance should suit. He has winning form in soft too. He’s probably over-priced because he isn’t in a big stable (16/1 available). I’ll settle for him each-way against the field at the best place terms available and hope for the best.
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Totally inept from Frank Spencer, letting the horse drift right out the back in the first furlong on a day when everything was winning from the front half of the action. Either that or the horse wasn't off (although it was strongly backed through the morning, suggesting otherwise) although it's also possible he was riding to orders as the trainer had stated he's a hold-up horse.

I would love to see some stats regarding the winning percentages of horses in big races when they're ridden from last compared with those ridden from midfield or nearer the front.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Totally inept from Frank Spencer, letting the horse drift right out the back in the first furlong on a day when everything was winning from the front half of the action. Either that or the horse wasn't off (although it was strongly backed through the morning, suggesting otherwise) although it's also possible he was riding to orders as the trainer had stated he's a hold-up horse.

I would love to see some stats regarding the winning percentages of horses in big races when they're ridden from last compared with those ridden from midfield or nearer the front.
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..........particularly when the going is soft.
 
Some good races today but struggling to find many opportunities.

The Dewhurst looks fascinating and there is an angle or two. The impression I have of the Hannon pair, I can't split them. Both look quality prospects but he's been very active on social media going on about Chindit and his work and barely mentioning Etonian. I like to avoid all trainer chatter if I can help it and a 10/3-14/1 price diff between these two is bogus and I've backed the latter.

The other angle comes via the National Stakes. Now, Thunder Moon was impressive that day but Wembley suffered a horrible trip. He was slow out the gate costing him a length and had to be switched wide twice before rattling home. Again, the price diff between these two colts 5/2-11/1 is excessive and I've dutched Wembley with Etonian.

Of the others I think you have to be against impressive Gimcrack winners in this historically. It's such a different test.

The Harrington entrant was impressive lto but looks to me like a good ground horse.

Small ew on Smart Champion in the ces. Very eye catching at Goodwood. **** knows if he'll stay but I'm willing to pay the price of finding out at 40/1

First jumps bet of the season will be Grand Sancy in the nc at Cheppers. Not sure the fav will like the track
 
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Roulston Scar 3.10Y is a progressive 4yo which loves York and handles cut well. His Nottingham win on his return looked little more than a warm-up for this.
12/1 B365
 
Two bets today: Thunder Moon, 11/4 BF, on whom I am very, very sweet and Vis a Vis (70 win BF, 33/1 ew 1st 8, Sky Bet).
 
I'm with Euro on Etonian to out run the odds. Tranchee would be a nice winner having highlighted him earlier in the week, I haven't got a lot on 12/1 I took but flat racing for me is only for a flutter. Some Chaos can run well at Chepstow. I've gone off Reshoun in the Ceserewitch, he's drifted to a price where I can't seriously fancy him to place. I've taken something else instead. Not So Sleepy I went for, no idea why.
 
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Katskill Nap Irish Ces: Ran well on first flat run for WMP on ground probably too quick for him.
EW 14/1 B365
 
That went well.:rolleyes:
Natural History 4.25G ran a blinder in a valuable Haydock race on hvy. Won a nothing race at Chester since, but still retains his Haydock mark.
7/2 B365
 
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