What are you backing Today?

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Another Custard the Dragon fan here. I follow the Mackie horses. Anyone remember Wigtown Bay from years back?
 
An outsider/long shot fancy in the classic chase for me tomorrow.

The horse was formerly trained by Willie Mullins, before switching to Venetia Williams yard about two years ago.

Upon changing trainer, DIDERO VALLIS won on his second and third start over fences, over distances which appeared to make him look like a 2M4F chaser.

The past eighteen months or so, the horses best performances were when fifth in the Brown Plate at the Cheltenham festival behind Siruh Du Lac.

He was then second on boxing day 2019 at Wetherby, when splitting race winner Top Ville Ben, and the eventual third horse horse home Lake View Lad.

Top Ville Ben and Lake View Lad are both very good chasers on their day, which is illustrated by the fact they're both rated in the 160's now. They are the type of horses who could run in something like the Ultima Chase at the festival with every chance in their own right.

I'm interested in Didero Vallis off a mark of 130 on Saturday. This also happens to be his last winning mark, but this 3M6F test will be a totally different test of stamina which he may actually revel in.

I just think he's shown plenty over the shorter distances, showing that there is talent that has probably yet to be fully discovered. He may out run big odds in this different type of chase, the real staying contest and jumping contest that it is.

I'll have a look the best odds and terms nearer the race time.

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Ah, interesting times.

Didero Vallis runs in the classic chase at Warwick tomorrow. This race probably a tad easier than his entry in the Welsh National last week. I have to back him in this now!!

He's 16/1 best priced but maybe someone will offer up 20s in which case he is my longshot to follow or to tip tomorrow. The stable had three winners yesterday didn't they?
 
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I haven't been keeping an eye on the betting for the Classic Chase but I've trawled the form.

I took 6/1 earlier this evening about Le Breuil because I've backed it ante-post (50/1) for the National and it needs to win to have any chance of making the cut. The main fancy for this race, though, is Achille. I'd assumed it would be about 5/1 so I was pretty gobsmacked to see that it was in double-figures and blue so rather than wait until the morning and maybe end up with 8/1 I've taken 14/1 to a decent amount.

I admit I'm influenced in this by my colossal ratings for the stable's Royal Pagaille and Cepage recently. I'm thinking something must just have really clicked in the yard. If Achille can show himself to be as far ahead of his mark as those two he'll turn this into a procession.
 
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If its not mine I hope its yours, DO!

So between us, we think Venetia Williams holds the key to the race. :)
 
Just Amoola Gold at Warwick. I don't trust Sky Pirate, especially at his price today, and the selection's form is working out excellent
 
I agree with Sky Pirate thinking Euro. If he's a good thing for the Grand Annual why isn't there a heap of stable money for him today, when this would be infinitely more winnable.
 
He also has a bit of a wild card entry for the Betfair Hurdle and wouldn't pick up a penalty for winning this.

Plenty of reasons to like him, just as many to oppose him. It's a race I'm happy to leave alone.
 
In the absence of strong betting material with the horses today I've turned my attention to the Scottish Premiership.

I've permed all six games to finish in draws. It's a ploy I used to use back when there were only ten teams in the league and it would be very rare for a 'round' to go by without at least one of the games finishing all square.

The six matches make it much more expensive but the racing isn't doing it for me today so I might as well throw some dough at a gamble.

Celtic should have won the other night even with a Second XI on the field. But one commentator summed it up perfectly after the game. Celtic's boys looked like boys in the final ten minutes. Livi have won their last eight matches. I don't know exactly at which point Martindale took over as manager but he's clearly got them in serious form. They're also a very physical side and it's hugely likely the mason in the black will let them bully the kids. It tells you how far downhill Celtic have gone this season when the visiting Scottish team is a best price 4/1.

Tomorrow I can see Motherwell denying Stevie G's Govan Galacticos all three points. As I've said before, they are an ordinary team and there for the beating but I've never known a team score as many deflected goals. I reckon at least five of their league wins so far have been down to wicked deflections. That luck is bound to run out soon.

All the other teams are of a similar level, with tactically astute managers and I can see them cancelling each other out.

And if you haven't already seen it check out Lawrence Shankland's goal for Dundee Utd during the week:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9yrQcVvYXg
 
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The Macon Lugnatic was an early tracker horse for me. Was disappointing first time up, though Pauling’s yard was in a bit of a rut at the time, and I’m hoping for a better run this time. General 14/1 in Pertemps qualifier (next) at Warwick.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't been keeping an eye on the betting for the Classic Chase but I've trawled the form.

I took 6/1 earlier this evening about Le Breuil because I've backed it ante-post (50/1) for the National and it needs to win to have any chance of making the cut. The main fancy for this race, though, is Achille. I'd assumed it would be about 5/1 so I was pretty gobsmacked to see that it was in double-figures and blue so rather than wait until the morning and maybe end up with 8/1 I've taken 14/1 to a decent amount.

I admit I'm influenced in this by my colossal ratings for the stable's Royal Pagaille and Cepage recently. I'm thinking something must just have really clicked in the yard. If Achille can show himself to be as far ahead of his mark as those two he'll turn this into a procession.
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I need to see this race again. I was convinced for the first three-quarters of the race I was on a non-trier [in Achille] and then when he did make his move he was unnecessarily wide. Maybe the instructions were to make sure the horse saw the fences after so long off but the residual impression is that the jockey was seriously over-confident.

Prime candidate now for the bounce.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Imperial Alcazar was winning leg 5 in a Lucky 63 for me, the Mullins mare the odd one out but a very tidy profit for the day.
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Well Done, Beef.

Despite having a good few weeks overall, after a quick scan of the cards today I felt it was one of those days that I couldn't be bothered to study the card properly. The only angle I could see was whether to be for or against the favs.

Mind you, it was my mums 65th birthday today so this put things in perspective. I've known all along if she gets covid with the state her health's in, that she'd probably die. It's two or three weeks before she gets a vaccine. Today was a birthday to saviour.

I probably should have just bunged all the favs in Yankee. I lost a few quid on Didero Vallis, but that was my fault. The horse had no form over this distance and it was a stab in the dark too far that didn't come off. I paid my money and took my chances as the staying goes.

What do we think happend to Chatham Street Lad in Ireland? I guess it's now more likely he runs in a handicap at the festival?
 
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Beef or Salmon said:
Thanks, It will go along way to it alright, just have to keep it hidden from her good self now, which could prover trickier than finding 5 winners
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I know what you mean. Mrs O knew nothing about my Rooster Booster win ("I had £2 at 9/2") until the big-mouth brother blurbed to his wife and she blurbed to Mrs O.

She wanted a fvckin motor out of it!
 
I can;t believe you can have 1/2 Envoi Allen that any .-2m.4f novice in training should be 5/2 to defeat him Mullins or no Mullins

Had a good run lately so I am putting 60% on the nose.....not like the old days but still a considerable amount as as they say it's buying money

Happy punting
 
Marb said:
Hereford 3.20

I haven't a lot of form to go on but I think trainer Olly Murphy has proved a shrewd enough trainer with his hurdler's, especially handicap hurdlers. This is Dubai Guest's first attempt in a handicap hurdle, but being trained by Olly Murphy makes me think there's every chance he'll run better in a handicap than he has in his novice hurdles. Who knows, maybe he's been readied for this race. The betting market might prove interesting.

All three each way prices.
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He ran well this day coming from the back. The horse of Ben Paulings that battled back to win, Apple Rock, is entered this Friday, so I'm just posting this a reminder to myself, with a view to backing Apple Rock this Friday. He looks an interesting type in his own right. They pulled 11 lengths clear of the third horse and Apple Rock successfully gave Dubai Guest a stone in weight while prevailing. If Dubai Guest is a horse to follow Apple Rock must be followed too.
 
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