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What are you backing Today?

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A 3/1 chance in a small field, giving 20 pounds to the winner, 6 weeks before The Festival.

You guys keep believing your naked eye, that he 'didn't want to go past' etc.

I'll play the long game.
 
Well, its two races now in which he has arrived swinging and didnt go through with it. It wasnt just today. Both on flat tracks with long straights and short run ins. Cheltenham on the other hand. Keep playing that long game.
 
HawkWing said:
Well, its two races now in which he has arrived swinging and didnt go through with it. It wasnt just today. Both on flat tracks with long straights and short run ins. Cheltenham on the other hand. Keep playing that long game.
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His three runs prior to that weren't exactly inspiring. Well beaten 6th, 3rd and a faller. He has definitely improved since that.
 
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Marb for what its worth I've just taken a quick look and it certainly looks like he had a touch of the single farm payments up the run in. I think if you're looking towards something like the Grand Annual its a bit of a weird race in my book but to win any handicap you need to have a bit in hand of your mark to win a Festival Handicap you really need to have 10lb plus up you're sleeve and even then you're hoping somewhere along the line some dirty devil hasn't managed to sneak a Graded performer in off a mid 140's mark. I'd imagine the distance that pair have pulled clear today the handicapper might well raise FB I wouldn't be surprised to see 7 lb to the winner and 4-5lb for the runner up effectively putting Forest Bihan off 155 ish that would be a massive ask to win from that mark.

It may be the case Marb that if he was to turn up in one of those big handicaps he'd be a fair old price and the way he travels into the races if you could get 5/1 or over to place only on the day, that might be the way to play him especially if as some suggest he's not the easiest to get to put his head in front. More than one way to skin a cat mate. I don't really have a solid opinion on today's race as I've only had a quick glance but if you do make you're mind up that he's started to keep a bit for himself then playing place only is the way to go with such types.
 
Interesting points, Danny. As you know me well enough by now to know I cannot and wouldnt be daft enough to claim he was a 'certainty', in the Grand Annual. But I wouldn't be as quick to rule him out either. Time will tell. I'm not one for place only backing. I'd much rather have a good each way bet with the best possible each way terms available to me nearer the race.
 
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Morning

Expecting a big run in the 1.50 Cheltenham from

​The Kings Writ

Each Way @ 8-1 [Bet 365] 1/4 BOG
 
Marble said:
A 3/1 chance in a small field, giving 20 pounds to the winner, 6 weeks before The Festival.

You guys keep believing your naked eye, that he 'didn't want to go past' etc.

I'll play the long game.
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I have to say I agree with Danny's reply to this.

I don't see what his price today had to do with anything nor the amount of time before the festival and he was giving 20lbs to the winner because he's already that much better. It's not as if he was giving 20lbs to Altior.

It's clear to anyone who watches the finish that he wasn't giving 100% effort on the run-in.

The long game, if there is one, was blown yesterday. Yesterday was the plan. He'll go back up the ORs for that - unlike Modus - and won't win a handicap this season because he won't qualify for lower-class ones. They might try and find a small conditions race for him but I imagine his campaign now will be to get him back down to 150 or lower. He hasn't won a jumps race since October 2017 now.

I have as much chance of winning a Grand Annual as he has.
 
Cracking Find has only been out the first three once in his last ten or so starts.

No shame in finding him too good giving him that weight.

Each to their own.

The idea Forest Bihan winning yesterday, in order to get a bigger hike in the weights, would be good for Forest Bihan's Grand Annual chance, cannot be right.
 
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Marble said:
No shame in finding [Cracking Find] too good giving him that weight.
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Absolutely not.

But that's never been the point of the argument.

The point has been that he appeared not to be too interested in doing so. He would have beaten CF yesterday if he'd wanted to. He didn't want to. That's the point.


Marble said:
The idea Forest Bihan winning yesterday, in order to get a bigger hike in the weights, would be good for Forest Bihan's Grand Annual chance, cannot be right.
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No-one would disagree with that and I don't think anyone has said it so I'm wondering where it came from?
 
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3.05 Lingfield.
f/c Three Weeks to beat Fearsome
Currently pays 4.96 - none too dusty in a 4 runner contest.
 
Backed a couple at Fontwell today:

3:00 - Birds Of Prey (at 7/4 with Laddies, decent chance in this.)

4:00 - Tigeralley (at 7/1 again with Laddies, has a squeak at good odds.)
 
Yes, Danny, that's the way it goes sometimes with horseracing. With the drift to 10/1 guess I should have backed the second one e/w. Never mind, maybe something will be worth a go during the week!
 
Down Royal 3:55 Liffeydale Dreamer ...Win and Place 16/1

This mare's gone to a fair price. She only recently turned four years of age so still has plenty of mileage. She had a good win last year on the flat, with clear preference for good ground. She should encounter decent ground again here. She wasn't beaten far in 5th place the last day at Punchestown, which was a return to form. It puts her there with a live each way chance. The handicap mark is nothing to complain about. She'd be a few pounds higher if starting off in England. 109 Irish mark doesn't seem too bad. Get that sterling on.
 
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David O'Meara has trained Gulliver (7.15) for just 4 runs.
In the first of them he was drawn 12/12 at Lingfield and to race wide as a consequence; ran well on his next 2 starts. but finished 2nd to 2 high class horses - Island Of Life and Katchi respectively.
Lto got into a cut-throat pace duel with Danzan, but both were passed by horses coming from the rear of the field. all 4 runs were higher class than today's contest and none look the calibre of those he finished 2nd to.
7/1 generally.
 
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Marble said:
Down Royal 3:55 Liffeydale Dreamer ...Win and Place 16/1

This mare's gone to a fair price. She only recently turned four years of age so still has plenty of mileage. She had a good win last year on the flat, with clear preference for good ground. She should encounter decent ground again here. She wasn't beaten far in 5th place the last day at Punchestown, which was a return to form. It puts her there with a live each way chance. The handicap mark is nothing to complain about. She'd be a few pounds higher if starting off in England. 109 Irish mark doesn't seem too bad. Get that sterling on.
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Good luck mate,hope it gets 2nd lol
 
reet hard said:
David O'Meara has trained Gulliver (7.15) for just 4 runs.
In the first of them he was drawn 12/12 at Lingfield and to race wide as a consequence; ran well on his next 2 starts. but finished 2nd to 2 high class horses - Island Of Life and Katchi respectively.
Lto got into a cut-throat pace duel with Danzan, but both were passed by horses coming from the rear of the field. all 4 runs were higher class than today's contest and none look the calibre of those he finished 2nd to.
7/1 generally.
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Rubbish!:(
 
Desert Orchid said:
The long game, if there is one, was blown yesterday. Yesterday was the plan. He'll go back up the ORs for that - unlike Modus - and won't win a handicap this season because he won't qualify for lower-class ones. They might try and find a small conditions race for him but I imagine his campaign now will be to get him back down to 150 or lower. He hasn't won a jumps race since October 2017 now.
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Cracking Find went up 6lbs
Forest Bihan up 3lbs
Modus down 2lbs

Should they meet again, Forest Bihan will be, on the new ratings, 3lbs better off for half a length, in theory enough to turn the form around. Would I back him to do so? Not a snotter's chance.

I was maybe a bit quick to dismiss the chance of FB winning again as he's still a pound below his highest winning rating (when he actually gave Simply Ned weight) for which he went up 4lbs to 158. But it also means the one thing he is not doing is improving.
 
Cheers, O.
Race was won from the front (1st & 2nd both first 3, turning in) and he never got near them from his outside draw.
 
Seniority 6.00 Meyd: for no other reason than Ryan Moore thinks it's worth the round trip to ride it.
9/2 best at the mo.
 
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