Irish Flat Season 2016

[EC1]

should still have beaten the older horse late time though L..if ROW is owt to go by..if ROW had had a 6 second easier time instead of just 3... its fair to say he would have done

i have no doubt its a decent maiden..but is it a 12/1 derby shot on back of it though?

not sure mesen..worth looking in to anyway...the more info we get the more we know is my motto

 

[SlimChance]

should still have beaten the older horse late time though L..if ROW is owt to go by..if ROW had had a 6 second easier time instead of just 3... its fair to say he would have done

i have no doubt its a decent maiden..but is it a 12/1 derby shot on back of it though?

not sure mesen..worth looking in to anyway...the more info we get the more we know is my motto

The 12/1 is gone. they are taking 8/1!

 

[EC1]

good luck to em Slim...not for me at that price at end of March beginning april with all the big guns to come...on breeding like we said its more a leger horse

 

[wilsonl]

..but is it a 12/1 derby shot on back of it though?

Absolutely not IMO but the horse's chance isn't in anyway diminished by the fact that he's under priced and it wouldn't surprise me to see him leave yesterday's performance well behind in time, which in an open year would put him in the picture.

I will not be getting involved in anything until the key trials are out of the way though, especially as we still have top class NH fayre before then.

 

[EC1]

i don't get involved usually in ante post..not a game that remotely interests me normally but i did have a few bob on Wajeez at 24.0...couldn't resist as if it does act on the ground he will be on everyones lips in a few weeks like GH was last year after it were made obvious what a good animal he was when he won the dante.

does anyone remember Leonardo da vinci in the late 70's..won a mdn by 10 length or so and was made fav for the derby on back of it

 

[Desert Orchid]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Coolmore had one or two better Derby prospects sitting having a beer at home.

 

[gus]

Found the quote on Wajeez:

"JOHN GOSDEN has issued a warning to potential backers of his leading Investec Derby fancy Wajeez, who went into many a notebook when running out an impressive seven-length winner of his only juvenile start at Nottingham last year.Generally 16-1 third-favourite behind his stablemate Foundation in the Epsom market, Wajeez has recently returned to Clarehaven from his winter holiday at his owner Hamdan Al Maktoum's Shadwell Stud, but a Derby bid is "unlikely" according to his trainer.
Gosden, who won his second Derby when Golden Horn led home a stable 1-2 a year ago, said: "Wajeez is doing fine but what he wants is soft ground, which is why we were able to run him only right at the end of the season at Nottingham on testing ground, which suited him but not the others.
"I'd say, given his action, a Derby bid would be unlikely for him at this stage unless it came up bottomless like the year Teenoso won."
Golden Horn made his return in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket last April, but where Wajeez returns has yet to be determined.
Gosden added: "Where he goes is ground dependent, but soft going at Chester in May in something like the Dee Stakes or Vase could be his forte."

 

[gus]

does anyone remember Leonardo da vinci in the late 70's..won a mdn by 10 length or so and was made fav for the derby on back of it

I do. By Brigadier Gerard out of Lupe, the Oaks winner. Trained by Peter Walwyn, owned by Wildenstein. Unraced at two, won the Wood Ditton first time out and then the White Rose Stakes at Ascot by ten lengths with Eddery motionless. I can still see it in my mind's eye on Grandstand. He was fantastically impressive. I got the train from Liverpool where I was at University to go and see him in the Dante, his next run, for which he was odds-on and can still recall the groan from the stands when Pat went for his stick early in the straight. Shirley Heights won it from Sexton Blake with Julio Mariner third and Leonardo fifth.

 

[gus]

Correction. Julio Mariner was second in the Dante and Sexton Blake third.

To be fair to LDV, the White Rose was a Group 3 in 1978, worth nearly six grand to the winner. For comparison purposes, the Dante winner that year got just over £13k. And in the White Rose, he gave 3lbs and a ten length beating to Nicholas Bill who had won a 27-runner mile maiden at the Newbury Spring Meeting by six lengths.

 

[edgt]

Well remembered gus.
I remember Pat looked to be on for a four timer that day at Ascot but only won two, Buckskin beaten by Shangamuzo that day as well.

Back in the 1970s the Wood Ditton was THE race at the Craven meeting, the winner often getting very short quotes for The Derby.

Levanter won the race in 1971 and was Derby ante post fav for a while on the strength of it ( I only remember this as he stood at Waterloo Stud near me and his promo blog said so )

For my money Moonlight Magic is the Derby bet at 20/1, his improvement in 2 weeks between his first two starts was phenomenal to my eyes.

 

[gus]

Back in the 1970s the Wood Ditton was THE race at the Craven meeting, the winner often getting very short quotes for The Derby.

Indeed. Pinturischio began what was supposed to be a glorious three-year-old career in the 1961 Wood Ditton. Sadly, he was "got at" and that was that.

Moonlight Magic is an interesting one, there's no doubt. Good luck with him.

My only ante-post interest on the race at this stage is a bit on Deauville at 25/1 after the Royal Lodge (on the basis he'd reverse the form with Foundation over a further 4f) but he really blotted his copybook next time out in the Racing Post Trophy and I think I've done my money.

 

[gus]

For my money Moonlight Magic is the Derby bet at 20/1, his improvement in 2 weeks between his first two starts was phenomenal to my eyes.

He runs in the Ballysax on Sunday. Paddy Power make him 9/4 joint favourite with Cook Islands.

It's a good card with Alice Springs reappearing in the 1000 Guineas Trial.

 

[gus]

Heavy ground this afternoon and it's hard to find a bet but I'll certainly be watching Alice Springs with a great deal of interest as I think she's potentially a big player in the Classics this season, particularly the Oaks. Her form stands up really well but her running style screamed out that she needed a strong pace and a trip. An end-to-end gallop over a mile would suit but stepping up to middle distances will be right up her street.

Seven furlongs today is definitely on the sharp side now, particularly in a smallish field. Her class may well see her through but she's not a betting proposition at around evens.

 

[Absurdistan]

Alice Springs ran a shocker unless the plan was to plod round.

 

[Colin Phillips]

Liked the look of Bhutan the Galileo colt that won the first.

 

[fonz]

Alice Springs ran a shocker unless the plan was to plod round.

I wouldn't be taking the form too literally on this ground
Something similar was mentioned on another thread but I'm also looking forward to some good ground and hopefully some form to trust at HQ this week.

 

[gus]

Alice Springs ran a shocker unless the plan was to plod round.

Never put in the race, one token backhander. Easy in the market. She'll come on a ton, I'd have thought - she'll need to, of course - and better ground and a step up in trip will see her in a totally different light. Can you tell I've got an ante-post slip?

 

[gus]

Liked the look of Bhutan the Galileo colt that won the first.

Yes, he won nicely, Col, although the time was slowish.

Donnacha O'Brien rides well (as you'd expect) and is decent value for his claim.

As a matter of interest, does anyone know his height? He doesn't look as tall in the saddle as Joseph did which would obviously help in terms of weight issues.

 

[Grey]

Donnacha's on the left of the group

 

[gus]

Donnacha's on the left of the group

Thanks for that.

Not much in it, then.

 

[edgt]

Nothing at all gus. He rode apache with an 8 ounce saddle a few times last year.
If i were a rich man I would certainly prefer a jockey with a decent saddle under him regardless of how good the jockey is and Donnacha is very very good.
I would exacta him and Killian Leonard for the Irish Apprentice title this year if it were possible.

 

[davidjohnson]

Strange one this. Must have properly caught them by surprise.

Lack of any decent entries and the fact he went off at 14s suggests he's not been showing at home what he did on track.

Was quite impressed with the 2 from the Ballysax

 

[gus]

Was quite impressed with the 2 from the Ballysax

I've had a small bet on Idaho at 25/1 for Epsom. Plenty seem to think that they know which O'Brien's best Derby horse is and that horse is US Army Ranger. They might be right. But if you subscribe to the view that he's still in the process of finding out about his middle-distance colts then there's some mileage in looking at others from the stable. Betting and jockey bookings suggest Idaho wasn't expected yesterday but he ran a fine race. With hindsight he did a lot of running round the outside turning in but it was an impressive move and he looked all over the winner until Harzand (race-fit) reeled him in. The pair were miles clear and the time was good. Smullen's comments afterwards raised doubts about the winner handling Epsom, although Weld clearly disagrees. Whether Harzand runs or not I could see Idaho, better for the run, turning it round on decent ground at Epsom.

Of course, he could go Chantilly instead but that's in the price, for me.

 

[LBM]

I disagree Gus. I think with better ground and more distance Harzand would always finish ahead of Idaho. He has been given an OR of 110 and I think he will finally run at Epsom. 25/1 e/w has been taken. There are many horses I don't fancy for the Derby at the top of most bookies list for the race. Looking forward to how the rest of the preps pan out.

 

[gus]

Opinions differ, LBM, and you may well be right. Harzand's pedigree certainly isn't one that suggest he needs plenty of give, that's for sure.

I was really surprised that the response of the bookies yesterday was to shorten US Army Ranger in the Derby market. O'Brien seems to me to use the early part of the season to find out about his horses. He doesn't push them hard at home and the impression I have is that he watches the trials with the same outlook that the rest us do: has a view (but not necessarily a strong one) on what he thinks might happen but is open-minded and willing to change it based on what actually happens. Occasionally, of course, he'll have an absolute stand-out horse but US Army Ranger doesn't strike me at this stage as that kind of animal.