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The Derby

Standard times don't take account of bends and undulations - and Epsom has more than most.
 
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reet hard said:
Standard times don't take account of bends and undulations - and Epsom has more than most.
Click to expand...

They clearly do take account: in effect, this is the time it takes a fully-mature horse with a certain level of ability carrying a specified weight on good ground on a windless day to run this distance at that course with all its bends and undulations (if any).
 
Any bend, camber or undulation, serves to break up the pace, which has a concomitant effect on the speed a race is run at. It's self-evident that horses running at lower speed expend less energy to travel the same distance, so it's wrong to gauge stamina requirements purely on standard times.
Chester's 6f 18yd course has a ST of 1m 12.5s: Newbury's 6f 8yd is 1m 10.5. Judge for yourself which is the stiffer test.
 
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As I said earlier, we could go on forever but I don't want to.

We'll obviously have to agree to differ on the stamina test the Derby course represents.
 
If you watch the film of that Derby Lester gave him a quite brilliant stamina conserving ride . When it came to the Curragh and a headwind and soft ground at Longchamp he did not get home . The tight track for the Washngton International gave him the chance of getting home despite the ground . When one says a horse stays a trip I always think that means they stay it in all circumstances and I do not think that Sir Ivor did .
 
Notable to see Heffernan using his usual "tender riding style " again yesterday so tender that he got a two day whip ban.
 
:lol:

Revenge by the stewards for the urine extracted from them the previous day
 
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reet hard said:
Any bend, camber or undulation, serves to break up the pace, which has a concomitant effect on the speed a race is run at. It's self-evident that horses running at lower speed expend less energy to travel the same distance, so it's wrong to gauge stamina requirements purely on standard times.
Chester's 6f 18yd course has a ST of 1m 12.5s: Newbury's 6f 8yd is 1m 10.5. Judge for yourself which is the stiffer test.
Click to expand...

I agree 100% with this.

I read many years ago that horses slow down and get breathers rounding bends. The tighter the bend the slower they go.
 
The most distinctive feature of the Derby course, one which hits you right between the eyes when you see it for yourself, is the 134 foot climb in the first five furlongs. That section of the track also "snakes" slightly, first left and then right, but it's the uphill climb which is significant.

Anyway, back to this year's Derby. It's interesting to see that Heffernan rides Idaho tomorrow at Leopardstown. Idaho is clear favourite but Moore is on Shogun, second in the betting. Thoughts?
 
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gus said:
Anyway, back to this year's Derby. It's interesting to see that Heffernan rides Idaho tomorrow at Leopardstown. Idaho is clear favourite but Moore is on Shogun, second in the betting. Thoughts?
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trying to accomadate some bets for the Derby on him
booked heff
tomorrow declares non runner Shogun and going to York
and Ryan riding tomrrow Idaho
 
Edgt has money on Moonlight Magic ante-post and he certainly won't be tearing up his ticket after today's race. My money looks done on Idaho. You could see him and Shogun improving for the extra two furlongs but neither of them screams "Derby winner".

The Dante is the most reliable Derby trial. An impressive winner on Thursday would surely be clear favourite for Epsom. An unimpressive winner probably would, come to that.
 
fonz said:
Cloth of stars wins the Greffulhe, Any thoughts?
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Just watched the recording.

The form ties in, possibly tenuously, with Idaho and it's clearly decent enough in a year when there hasn't yet been a standout performance but I was a tad underwhelmed, to be honest. There was a point in the straight where Cloth Of Stars looked briefly to be in trouble and he made quite hard work of it albeit well on top at the end. His previous run this season may have had a bearing.

Not for me.
 
As it happens I don't have any bet on Moonlight Magic; yet !
Not sure what to make of today's race glad as I am to see him win.
Ballydoyle horses bound to improve as will the Weld horse who looks another St Leger type and better older horse.
 
Derrinstown was a muddling race with the obrien trio caught flat-footed and we're closing on the winner. The proximity of the pacemaker also put doubts on the strength of the form. Unless the Dante or the French guineas throw up a strong candidate then the Chester vase looks the strongest form. I think there will be many with ew chances and it may well pay to avoid the first two in the betting. I hope black Sea put in a good run in the Dante as I think he is a forgotten horse who has already won this season. The most tricky derby to pick the first three for many a year.
 
Having already put Awtaad up at 50/1 for the Derby I am going in again at 16/1.

It seems to me the bookies are happy to ignore the form book.

I refer to The Gurkha who beat somewhat ordinary field in an ordinary time in France V Awtaad who just stuffed the 2000 Guineas winner and on a line through the 3rd just improved again on his previous best.

A few bob more EW at 16/1 doesn't look a bad bet to me especially as his trainer is comparing him to the brilliant Adross
 
Thanks for let me know 12 hours after I read it in the Racing Post and noticed the huge drift on the machine:),,,I've been sucking eggs a long time sunshine :whistle:

I'm happy as I had the foresight to also back him AP for the Guineas and lay the favourite plus I am only too happy enough to take 4/1 about him kicking The Gurkha into touch :p
 
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I've just gone in again on Idaho @ 25/1 Paddy Power (NRNB) and it was encouraging that he at least got a mention in the "Breakfast with the stars" AOB telephone call; Seamie reportedly very happy with him.

I'm slightly worried about his temperament after getting upset in the stalls at the start of the Ballysax & his brother having shown similar traits and I'm also concerned how that long stride will handle coming down the hill but there's hardly any rain forecast now for the next couple of weeks and I'm sure that he'll show marked improvement on better ground and for the extra 2f. Highland Reel has been in and out but showed in the HK Vase last December what he's capable of with conditions to suit and if his brother has the same level of form in him then he's surely much too big a price in a race seemingly lacking star quality.

There's a chance my money will be gone after 5 furlongs but if - and it's a fairly big if admittedly - he's in contention entering the straight I'll be confident of him at least placing and he represents miles better value than something like Ulysses, who is now bordering on a ridiculous price for a maiden winner where the three horses to follow him home were all making their debuts having missed their 2yo campaigns.
 
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Red Verdon being considered following a stone increase for his Haydock win. Some people have more money than sense.
 
Anyone have an account with 10Bet? Cloth of Stars (who I have at 10s) is a best priced 7/1 across the board but these friggers have him at 12s.
 
some "which trial is best" data from the last 25 years or so.

[TABLE="width: 408"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1st[/TD]
[TD]2nd[/TD]
[TD]3rd[/TD]
[TD]4th[/TD]
[TD]worse[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fielden[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dante[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2000 Guineas[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ch Vase[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grefullhe[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I2000[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dee[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Derrinstown[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lingfield[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sandown[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Glasgow[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]K Derby[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody><colgroup><col><col span="5"></colgroup>[/TABLE]
 

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