1000 Guineas (and beyond)

Fast ground would be a massive concern for me with Seta. I thought she was going to win easily at Doncaster until not letting herself down. Given the form of that race, I'd expect her to be able to run to 115+ under her conditions, but I don't think she'll get them on Sunday.
 
Looking at Rumoush and dropping back in trip, I don't necessarily see it as a negative, but does anyone know what the last 1000 Guineas winner was that was dropping back in trip, or 2000 Guinas winner for that matter.
 
Quite like the look of Nurture in this at a massive price - she's still a maiden and has switched stables since her last start but that was over CD when narrowly beaten by Timepiece in a listed event. She's 50/1 at the moment which IMO is a big price for what she's done and has been narrowly beaten by the colts in a big sales race. Fingers crossed they'll hold her up this time and she'll be staying on.

Only question is who's going to ride? (Assuming stable jockey Jim Crowley rides Puff)
 
Gamla Stan said:
Gal,

Any idea if Devoted to You runs here or in the Pretty Polly? She'd have an EW squeek in this but would need the ground to ease I suspect.
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stanjames.com 1000 Guineas update
We will probably only run Devoted To You in the stanjames.com 1000 Guineas, she is well and will be ridden by Johnny Murtagh.
 
davidjohnson said:
Looking at Rumoush and dropping back in trip, I don't necessarily see it as a negative, but does anyone know what the last 1000 Guineas winner was that was dropping back in trip, or 2000 Guinas winner for that matter.
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Off the top of my head, Roland Gardens won the 1978 Two Thousand Guineas - I was there - having won Epsom's Blue Riband Trial Stakes the previous week over eight and a half furlongs. That's the last one I can recall. You could argue it doesn't really constitute "dropping back in trip", of course.
 
Cecil had Storm Trooper, won the Feilden impressively and then dropped back for the Guineas. Seem to remember he was backed into quite a short price but never figured.
 
gus said:
Off the top of my head, Roland Gardens won the 1978 Two Thousand Guineas - I was there - having won Epsom's Blue Riband Trial Stakes the previous week over eight and a half furlongs. That's the last one I can recall. You could argue it doesn't really constitute "dropping back in trip", of course.
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With odds on favourite Try My Best tailed off !
 
davidjohnson said:
Looking at Rumoush and dropping back in trip, I don't necessarily see it as a negative, but does anyone know what the last 1000 Guineas winner was that was dropping back in trip, or 2000 Guinas winner for that matter.
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There are very few races further than a mile open to top level performers prior to the guineas so I wouldn't think it's relevant. Someone might be able to correct me but the only grade 1 race further than a mile for 2yo's (or 3yo's prior to the guineas) is the race Passion for Gold won. There are obviously a few other stakes races such as the race Twice Over won at 2 (Not doing well with race names here - but it could be the Zetland?) and the Feilden (Get in ;)) but all I believe should be taken from it is that the winner of them will stay. Whether they're quick enough is another matter.
 
I am on Music Show at 16´s here. I really think Special Duty is going to struggle to get the distance, especially if she is ridden from behind and fails to settle in the early stages, which I think is very likely. I have always considered Seta as an Oaks filly and I can see her running a good trial for that race in the Guineas.
 
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Flame said:
Blue Maiden could be the surprise package and don't be surprised if Fallon makes a late switch.
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She's hugely overpriced, she runs a cracking race in the Nell Gwyn I think.

I like the French filly but the opposition is stronger than I had anticipated a month ago and I think Music Show should be favourite now. Devoted to You and Blue Maiden are the EW bets against her.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I like the French filly but the opposition is stronger than I had anticipated a month ago and I think Music Show should be favourite now.
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Special Duty is bombproof. The bottom line of her pedigree suggests she'll stay, her form on fast ground is miles clear of everything and some of her opposition on forums seem to centre on her sharing the same sire as Johannesburg.
 
Euronymous said:
Special Duty is bombproof. The bottom line of her pedigree suggests she'll stay, her form on fast ground is miles clear of everything and some of her opposition on forums seem to centre on her sharing the same sire as Johannesburg.
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I wouldn't be worried about Special Duty getting the trip, but apparently her trainer is.
 
Bar the Bull said:
There are numerous maidens and stakes races over 1m2f and a few over 1m4f. Top level performers have almost all run in races of this type.
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Prior to the guineas~? Name me a 1m4f stakes race for 2 or 3yo's prior to the guineas. There may be one or two 1m2f stakes races and i've tried to name them but you've not added anything.

How many 1m4f maidens are there prior to the Guineas? Not many. None at 2 either I would guess. Not that many 1m2f maidens for 2yo's either.
 
A few 1m4f maidens I meant. Ah there's a fair amount of 1m2f maidens and conditions races. And the following stakes races:
Sandown Classic Trial
Ballysax
Fielden
Epsom Blue Riband

Loads of horses run in a Guineas after taking a maiden. The fact that none do so after winning a 1m2f maiden or any of the above races is probably the point that was being made earlier.
 
I'm being pedantic but the feilden is over 1m1f.

I'm not really sure what your point is to be honest...
 
Neither am I.

My point is that there are plenty of horses who have had the opportunity to drop back from 1m+ to win a Guineas, but none of them do as it is usually an indication that the horse will be more suited to a stamina test.

They don't have to be Group races.
 
Does anybody know the last time a horse won a maiden over any trip in the same year as the 1000 or 2000?

I don't by the way. Just wondering.
 
It's absolutely pissing it down where I am in London and BBC Weather forecasts rain for Newmarket every day until Sunday.

With that, I've backed Devoted To You at 33/1, she'll have come on for her run, stay the trip and handle the ground.
 
18 declared -

Blue Maiden
Devoted To You
Distinctive
Gile Na Greine
Habaayib
Hibaayeb
Jacqueline Quest
Lady Darshaan
Misheer
Music Show
Nuture
Pipette
Pollenator
Puff
RUmoush
Sent From Heaven
Seta
Special Duty
 
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