2 Mile Chasers 20/21

I wouldn’t be so sure Cheltenham’s his track anyway.

Lovely horse though, absolutely off his rockers as well.
 
Confirmations for the Tingle Creek

Altior (IRE) Brewin'upastorm (IRE) Castlegrace Paddy (IRE) Esprit du Large (FR) First Flow (IRE) Greaneteen (FR) Politologue (FR) Rouge Vif (FR)
 
Rouge Vif Daryl Jacob at 7/1 could upset Atior. On his return giving weight to all bar one in a h'cap he had the entire field struggling to keep up from 3 out. Without turning a hair he left them for dead and looks like he has improved no end since last season.
 
Tanlic said:
Rouge Vif Daryl Jacob at 7/1 could upset Atior. On his return giving weight to all bar one in a h'cap he had the entire field struggling to keep up from 3 out. Without turning a hair he left them for dead and looks like he has improved no end since last season.
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Did look impressive, but he beat a bunch of horses that won't win 4 races between them all season...some have been beaten since by wider margins!
 
Same could be said about a lot of up and coming chasers. When Sprinter won at Donnie the horses he beat were hardly heard of again winning one bad race between them.Rouge Vif was having only his 6th run over fences so it is entirely possible he could be on the upgrade.....The Nichols pair look more exposed and more likely to get trounced by Altior if he is 100% On the other hand Rouge Vif might just be a decent ew bet as things haven't exactly been plain sailing for Altior of late
 
The ground my be an issue for Rouge Vif. There's plenty of rain forecast, and Whittington is on record as saying he doesn't want soft ground.
 
Maruco said:
The ground may be an issue for Rouge Vif. There's plenty of rain forecast, and Whittington is on record as saying he doesn't want soft ground.
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Pulled him out of the Shloer for precisely that!
 
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Tend to forget about the UK weather being **** LOL

The horse is such a fireball he'd probably burn himself out by halfway if the ground was very soft or heavy

If his luck is in and it is g/s I would think he'll take his chance
 
Altior 14/1 to win the Tingle Creek and Champion Chase with 365.

Probably goes off around evens on Saturday, and if he wins that he’ll be challenging favouritism. If he doesn’t win on Saturday, he won’t be winning the Champion Chase. It’s a fair bet to be honest.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Is that actually on offer?

I see it's 4/5 and 7/1 for each race (13.4/1 the 'double') but they don't lay that because the second price depends on the first result.
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Yeah bottom of the anti post bit.

Was having a Fanny around before and saw it. Thought it was fair enough price. If he wins on Saturday at 4/5 as he’s entitled to do, he’s probably a 4/1 shot.

He loses, he won’t be winning the champion chase anyway. So in my head you’re taking 14/1 for him to win the champion chase.
 
Double J said:
Altior 14/1 to win the Tingle Creek and Champion Chase with 365.

Probably goes off around evens on Saturday, and if he wins that he’ll be challenging favouritism. If he doesn’t win on Saturday, he won’t be winning the Champion Chase. It’s a fair bet to be honest.
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taken
 
Henderson seems very bullish about his chances....

"You still wouldn't see a horse that could go with him over five fences here and it would be frightening if they could."

That's after raving about Shishkin being an aeroplane and that, what he did was scary!!!
 
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Double J said:
Yeah bottom of the anti post bit.
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Found it and took it.

The only thing that concerns me is why would they offer it in the first place? Have they maybe heard Altior isn't going to win on Saturday?

It reminds of the occasional offer on ITV racing. It happened again on Saturday: If Marie's Rock wins we'll double the prize to £100k.

And Marie's Rock goes and gets hammered. And that wasn't the first time something like that has happened.

I'll maybe lay Altior on Saturday to cover the bet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Found it and took it.

The only thing that concerns me is why would they offer it in the first place? Have they maybe heard Altior isn't going to win on Saturday?

It reminds of the occasional offer on ITV racing. It happened again on Saturday: If Marie's Rock wins we'll double the prize to £100k.

And Marie's Rock goes and gets hammered. And that wasn't the first time something like that has happened.

I'll maybe lay Altior on Saturday to cover the bet.
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No. Just no.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll maybe lay Altior on Saturday to cover the bet.
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So you lay Altior at evens....Now your 1 bet has cost you twice as much....effectively cutting the 14/1 to 7/1....you may as well just bet him to win at Cheltenham and not worry, that he's a gallop short of a Lb....

Desert Orchid said:
The only thing that concerns me is why would they offer it in the first place? Have they maybe heard Altior isn't going to win on Saturday?
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The bet makes sense to the bookmaker; firstly they are not paying out Saturday. Secondly, they are already up on this event because the bet's cast on Defi for this race, are already in their satchel's. They only payout if he jumps a clear round on Saturday ahead of the next best 2 milers in the country, then survives 3 month's of Hendo's indecision, gets to Chelt's in one piece, the weather is in his favour, and on the eve of the race; Hendo doesn't decide to go straight to Liverpool over 2m 4 f where he sees him having a far better chance of winning as a fresh horse and not having to face the best the Irish have to offer over 2 miles too.

You have to think, as much as Henderson dithered and beat himself up over the decision to run Altior at Ascot against Cyrname; his own genius is floored here because he stated openly that Altior would be better at the middle distance and who are we to doubt him, even if he doubts himself. What's more, I think he is right. Doesn't mean I think he will be beaten on Saturday, on the contrary...I just feel the trainer is now trying to convince (say something enough times and you start to believe it yourself) himself and only running him will show us!
 
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Maxbet said:
So you lay Altior at evens....Now your 1 bet has cost you twice as much....
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If Altior loses on Saturday I've recouped [in theory, since I haven't laid it yet] my initial outlay. It only 'costs' me if Altior wins on Saturday and loses in March but by then I can lay off a smart-looking 14/1 (7/1, as you say, counting Saturday's lay) bet at close to evens.

It strikes me as safer than letting it all ride on one outcome.

I just don't trust bookies to offer 14/1 without having some inside gen on it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If Altior loses on Saturday I've recouped [in theory, since I haven't laid it yet] my initial outlay. It only 'costs' me if Altior wins on Saturday and loses in March but by then I can lay off a smart-looking 14/1 (7/1, as you say, counting Saturday's lay) bet at close to evens.

It strikes me as safer than letting it all ride on one outcome.

I just don't trust bookies to offer 14/1 without having some inside gen on it.
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I trust your opinions, and there isn’t many a better judge. I’m just not sure of your thinking in taking 14/1 if you don’t trust it.
Surely you’d just leave the bet, lay Altior at evens on Saturday, and then back him at an enhanced price of probably 12/1 for the Champion Chase as a result.

Think you maybe reading far too much into the bookies offer there.
 
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Aren’t they just taking a view that Altior could get turned over on Saturday, and that even if he wins, he’ll be vulnerable as an 11yo come March anyway?

I dunno that there’s anything sinister or ‘insider’ going on here, DO. Looks like they’re just adopting a position, and offering a mild inducement to anyone with an opposing view.
 
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Double J said:
Surely you’d just leave the bet, lay Altior at evens on Saturday, and then back him at an enhanced price of probably 12/1 for the Champion Chase as a result.
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In the cold light of day the morning after the night before, this is exactly what I should have done.

And, to be honest, I'm a wee bit annoyed with myself for being so impulsive.
 
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