2000 Guineas

Ladbrokes are longest about JP after been noticeably shortest about him since Janurary. Could be a case of them simply having little or no liabilities on him.
 
Raven`s Pass has drifted to 7.8 on BF. Curious as to why this is i had a look in their forum for some indication and apparently Dave Nevison and Steve Mellish have been discussing the animal on RUK and have both come to the conclusion it wont stay.

The problem with pro punters like these is that they don`t specialise in betting on only one or two areas of the sport and therefore give only cursory glances to certain races/horses and come up with half baked ideas.

I`ve watched the Dewhurst a number of times and RP comes to win the race and totally loses his action in the dip. This is the sort of thing that happens a lot on the Rowley Mile to horses who are unsuited to the ground conditions on the day.
Look at how all at sea Dubawi became in the 2005 renewal as the hammer came down - drifting like a barge on ground he hated:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Bhy8MhNNHZU

I`ve had to stick another ton on Gosden`s charge at the prices now on offer and expect to be in a postion to lay some of it off at much shorter after the Craven tomorrow.
 
"I`ve watched the Dewhurst a number of times and RP comes to win the race and totally loses his action in the dip. This is the sort of thing that happens a lot on the Rowley Mile to horses who are unsuited to the ground conditions on the day.


Look at how all at sea Dubawi became in the 2005 renewal as the hammer came down - drifting like a barge on ground he hated:...."



Euron, I agree with your observation as to what happened to Dubawi, but that was surely because he was running downhill on ground firmer than he appreciated.

But I'm not sure that Raven's Pass lost his action due to the combination of ground AND the downhill run, or just the dip itself.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Apr 16 2008, 08:44 AM
Dave Nevison and Steve Mellish have been discussing the animal on RUK and have both come to the conclusion it wont stay.
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I’m quite taken with Raven’s Pass but am pretty sure he won’t win the Guineas. I’ve written about him recently. We know he was a runaway winner of the Solario Stakes in a fast time and three lengths third in the Dewhurst despite looking to be a top of the ground horse that would not have appreciated the much softer going he experienced at Newmarket than in his previous races. Nevertheless, I don’t think he’ll fully get a fast run stiff mile. He has no evident prepotent stamina influences and the Elusive Quality colt may prove effective at distances up to a mile rather than further. I would not expect him to fully see the trip out at Newmarket even on better going.

New Approach will obviously be difficult to get past, but he is at the other end of the spectrum with more stamina than he needs for this. Whatever he does in the Guineas I expect him to outperform that in the Derby.

I’ve sorted out two or three to take the favourite on with that exclude many of those prominent in the betting. I’ll be working on my staking strategy this week.
 
I wouldnt put anyone off backing Henrythenavigator for the guineas. I think he will prove to be Ballydoyles No. 1 in time, and think that he is a good back to lay come the day...without trying to rhyme...

Worth a few bob at 42s.
 
I'm probably reading something into it that isn't there, but I was a bit surprised Murtagh didn't ride Henrythenavigator in the post race gallops at the Curragh at the start of the season. I'd have thought, if he was seen as being a potential group 1 winner at three, they would have ensured the schedule was juggled in some way that he would have done.
 
Originally posted by del boy@Apr 16 2008, 10:08 AM
I wouldnt put anyone off backing Henrythenavigator for the guineas. I think he will prove to be Ballydoyles No. 1 in time, and think that he is a good back to lay come the day...without trying to rhyme...

Worth a few bob at 42s.
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Henrythenavigator will improve for stepping up to a mile unlike some of the others and I agree should not be overlooked. I'm also surprised they appear to be pushing one or two ahead of this one at home. He could turn out to be a similar prospect to Duke Of Marmalade last year.
 
Mel

Murtagh did not ride Henrythenavigator simply due to time constraints. Unlike recent years the conditions (wind and rain) was so bad that the colts all worked in one bunch while the fillys worked together in another big bunch.

But as has been previously stated those “worked outs” were only a day out and nothing serious done at all.

Reading the Racing Post today (and the Betfair market), O’Brien is hinting the Guineas might come too soon for him much in the same way it did for Duke Of Marmalade last year and that better is likely as the season progresses.

Steve and others might remember I was negative to the chances of DOM and EM last year simply because they were not ready. I would be in the same boat for Henry this year and JP is by someway (imo) their number 1 choice.

Steve what chances do you give JP getting the mile?
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 16 2008, 10:52 AM
Steve what chances do you give JP getting the mile?
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I like JP but am not totally convinced about the mile. The Johannesburg colt followed a maiden win at the Curragh with a Group 3 victory at Leopardstown. It looks possible he’ll get a mile and with plenty of speed in his pedigree he could turn out to be difficult to beat at the distance if he does stay. I would think he seems more likely to excel at distances up to a mile, however.
 
That is fair enough Steve, looking at his pedigree I was surprised to see him staying 7 furlongs so well last time out. It would definitely be a doubt for me.
 
Originally posted by SteveM@Apr 16 2008, 10:54 AM


I’ve sorted out two or three to take the favourite on with that exclude many of those prominent in the betting. I’ll be working on my staking strategy this week.
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Interesting. It looks a good renewal and i would expect one of the top half dozen in the market to prevail in those circumstances. That said i can`t resist another bite on Rio at 40s.
 
Well Godolphin have been saying that he's doing nothing at home, and that Ibn Khaldun is their number one.
 
Thanks; I haven't been following flat news flow over the winter.

I was really taken by him in the Dewhurst. Reading between the lines of what you are saying, it sounds to me like they may enter him in the French Guineas if there is a bit of cut and if Ibn Khaldun is so good.

He looks more like a French Derby horse to me.
 
Godolphin is primarily looking at three colts to run in two Guineas Ibn Khaldun (nominated by Godolphin as its leading hope earlier this season) Fast Company, now with Godolphin after being with trained by Brian Meehan last season and Rio De La Plata, who won three of his six starts last season at 7 furlongs. It is likely that two of these will run in our Guineas and one in France.

Much will of course depend on conditions, but do not be put off Fast Company if he lines up at Newmarket. He’ll go very close if he takes part. He is a lazy worker and normally shows nothing at home, but significantly has just worked very pleasingly with Ibn Khaldun, finishing upsides.
 
I am going to have a right cut at this flat season, as I should have a little more time on my hands over the next few seasons.

I think Godolphin are going to have a decent year. They are in a lot better shape than they have been over the past few years, which is hardly surprising, given how much money Sheikh Mo has been spending.
 
State of play after the Craven:

New Approach 3/1
Ravens Pass 5/1
Twice Over 6/1
Ibn Khaldun 7/1
Jupiter Pluvius 10/1
Confront 16/1
Fast Company 16/1
Henrythenavigator 20/1
Perfect Stride 20/1
Famous Name 25/1
Fireside 25/1
Rio De La Plata 25/1
Bruges 33/1
Forgotten Voice 33/1
Stimulation 33/1
Almajd 40/1
Amaakin 40/1
Calming Influence 40/1

50/1 bar
 
And Betfair....

New Approach 4.8
Ravens Pass 6.4
Twice Over 7
Ibn Khaldun 9.6
Jupiter Pluvius 11
Confront 17.5
Fast Company 19.5
Henrythenavigator 30
Perfect Stride 40
Stimulation 42
Amaakin 44

50 bar
 
From RP


Raven's Pass, watched by Sheikh Mohammed, delighted John Gosden who expects more from the colt in the 2,000 Guineas and on quicker ground.

"I wanted to run him over seven furlongs but it would have been too soft in the Greenham," he said. "I've not been hard on him. He got a bit tired and the other horse nailed him on the line.

"They were six lengths clear so I think it was a proper trial. He got keen in the middle of the race but I was really happy because he was not fully would up today."
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Can't wait to see him when screws are tightened down


just hope our weather don't put mockers on what is looking like a cracker
 
to bypass a Guineas with a Craven winner to go to the Dante when he is not a sure Derby runner because of stamina doubts looks like an stupid decision.
 
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