2000 Guineas

Agreed. I can't see the point of bypassing the Guineas, his Craven Stakes performance would have given him an excellent ew chance.

If he were to finish in the first three it would greatly enhance his stallion value. He's not likely to be given the chance run over a mile again.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Apr 24 2008, 05:21 PM
Stoute did the same with Alnasr Alwasheek and he ended up winning nowt after the Dante and he didn`t stay 12f either.
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Alnasr Alwasheek didn't miss the Guineas for the Dante ~ he actually started favourite behind Rodrigo De Triano.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Apr 24 2008, 05:44 PM
That`s it, he missed the Derby didn`t he. I knew he`d missed one of them.
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......nah, he got stuffed in that one too! :P

He went Craven/Guineas/Dante/Derby/International/Prix Dollar
 
Fair enough. I think i`m getting him mixed up with Dr Devious who deffo missed the Guineas for the Kentucky Derby.

I `ve started laying Raven`s Pass at 6 and 6.2 on Betfair. I expect him to be available nearer 7 on the day. My position on him (£100 @ 9.2) is looking better than it did before the Craven.
 
I would thank in advance for a report of the weather in the zone ahead of the meeting weekend.



It looks just a fine edition.


At the moment I will side with Infallible and New Approach.
 
5 day stage acceptors...going is currently good to firm.

Alfathaa 3.c
Bahamian Kid 3.c
Dream Eater (IRE) 3.c
Fast Company (IRE) 3.c
Fireside 3.c
Henrythenavigator (USA) 3.c
Ibn Khaldun (USA) 3.c
Jupiter Pluvius (USA) 3.c
Moynahan (USA) 3.c
New Approach (IRE) 3.c
One Great Cat (USA) 3.c
Perfect Stride 3.c
Plan (USA) 3.c
Raven's Pass (USA) 3.c
Rio de La Plata (USA) 3.c
Scintillo 3.c
Stimulation (IRE) 3.c
Strike The Deal (USA) 3.c
Stubbs Art (IRE) 3.c
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Apr 28 2008, 12:48 PM
Jupiter Pluvious is 10s at Laddies and mostly 8/1 elsewhere. Not a good sign for his backers i would think.
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What has also been noticeable is how short Henrythenavigator has been with them in recent weeks also with Ladbrokes and they have cut him again this afternoon into 12/1.
 
He was beaten 3 lengths in heavy ground by New Approach when giving him weight. Improvement is certainly required but its not out of the question given a decent surface.
 
But even the coventry stakes on his favoured surface has not exactly turned out to be a great race. And he had to work for that ( i recall)
 
I don't think he's good enough either, but any Coventry winner would need to improve greatly to win a Guineas.

Who was the last one to do it anyway?
 
I agree he did have to fight that day, but he it was only his second run and he was dropping right back in trip. At the time he was clearly their number one two year old and was strongly backed (as strong as a 2 year old can be at that time of year I suppose) for the Guineas even back then. The wheel since came off in heavy ground and granted his price is getting a bit short but if there was confidence there it should be noted.

Landseer won a French Guineas....
 
Originally posted by del boy@Apr 16 2008, 10:08 AM
I wouldnt put anyone off backing Henrythenavigator for the guineas. I think he will prove to be Ballydoyles No. 1 in time, and think that he is a good back to lay come the day...without trying to rhyme...

Worth a few bob at 42s.
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Into 21 now on Betfair, should be shorter come later in the week i feel. I think i will stick it out and maybe lay off on Thursday or Friday, just my stake mind...
 
It all depends on the ground, it would need to be genuinely good ground for him to have be at his best so the showers or heavy rain could be significant.

Thats the beauty of New Approach though, I think he is a really solid favourite on any ground and will be very tough to beat.
 
Martial in 1960 was the last one.

Of course, Desert prince and ROG ran well in the race before Classic success over a mile .
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 28 2008, 03:41 PM
Thats the beauty of New Approach though, I think he is a really solid favourite on any ground and will be very tough to beat.
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Not sure I'd completely agree with that, Gal. Of course he is the one to beat on any ground, given that he holds virtually all of his main challengers on 2yo form. I'm not suggesting for a second either that New Approach won't act on fast going (he did in the National Stakes- though the ground was certainly not lightning fast that day), but rather that he would be vulnerable to a horse with a superior turn of foot over the trip. Also worth pointing out that he very much had things his own way in the National Stakes- dictating a moderate gallop.

For me, the race revolves to a large extent around the ground. If there is no rain (or very little) and the ground comes up on the fast side, I feel New Approach could be vulnerable to the likes of Raven's Pass, Jupiter Pluvius, Rio De La Plata or even Henrythenavigator; if the ground is at all softer than good all of those can be discounted IMO, and it's hard to see past the Bolger colt, though Ibn Khaldun could be interesting.

Fascinating race in prospect.
 
Originally posted by trackside528@Apr 28 2008, 05:28 PM

For me, the race revolves to a large extent around the ground. If there is no rain (or very little) and the ground comes up on the fast side, I feel New Approach could be vulnerable to the likes of Raven's Pass, Jupiter Pluvius, Rio De La Plata or even Henrythenavigator; if the ground is at all softer than good all of those can be discounted IMO, and it's hard to see past the Bolger colt, though Ibn Khaldun could be interesting.

Fascinating race in prospect.
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Agree with that. According to the clerk of the course up to an inch (worst case scenario) is forecast before Saturday. Ground any softer than good virtually hands the Guineas to the favourite imo.
 
The 2K has been veritable graveyard for supposed 'good things' in recent years based on their 2yo running. George Washington is the only one I can think of who won. Talk about New Approach being something of a penalty kick etc is plain daft. There's plenty who went into the race as hot favourites with lofty reputations who couldn't win it.
 
But New Approach`s form has a far more substantial feel to it than most favourite`s (given his ground)

2005 - Dubawi...like NA wanted and didn`t get a softer surface.
2004 - One Cool Cat...Didn`t look like a Guineas winner and was priced on trainer rep alone.
2001 - Hawk Wing..Should have won.
1998 - Xaar..Always looked a 2yo.
 
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