2000 Guineas

Originally posted by davidjohnson@May 1 2008, 09:01 PM
If the forecast is accurate, then the pushing out to 5/1 of Ravens Pass is an overreaction. Should be closer to 3's on good or faster.
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Going aside Raven's stamina could give out against those who genuinely get a mile-plus. I always like to back something that will get the mile well in the Guineas. The pace of the Guineas could see RP go well for seven furlongs and then empty coming out of the dip. I'd rather side with something that will come out of the dip staying on - New Approach, Henrythenavigator, Ibn Khaldun, Perfect Stride, etc all seem more the type whose stamina resources will kick in just as RP's are emptying.
 
That`s what i thought until i looked at his pedigree. Can`t believe the favourite is less than 2/1. Crazy price. The Dewhurst was a race that emphasised stamina because of the ages of the horses and the ground conditions. The Guineas is more likely to be a speed contest. Only truly great 12f animals win Guineas (unless the opposition is well below par like it was in Golan`s year) and the chances are he isn`t great given how few horses are.

EDIT: replying to Bar.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@May 2 2008, 10:30 AM
I had a look at the Racing Post Trophy again last night.

Ibn Khaldun looked more like a Derby/Eclipse horse than a Guineas horse to me.
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He may be okay at 12 furlongs. I expect him to be most effective at 8-10 furlongs. The Eclipse could be his sort of thing, although they need to be very decent to beat the older horses in that. The likes of Duke Of Marmalade could be the one to mop up the all-age 8-10 furlong races.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@May 2 2008, 11:11 AM
That`s what i thought until i looked at his pedigree. Can`t believe the favourite is less than 2/1. Crazy price. The Dewhurst was a race that emphasised stamina because of the ages of the horses and the ground conditions. The Guineas is more likely to be a speed contest. Only truly great 12f animals win Guineas (unless the opposition is well below par like it was in Golan`s year) and the chances are he isn`t great given how few horses are.

EDIT: replying to Bar.
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New Approach should prove a natural at 12 furlongs. Like I said before he'll have to be in the mould of a Nashwan or Nijinsky to excel at both distances. Then again maybe he is. He looks very good to me. I've spent a long while looking for alternatives, but sometimes the obvious is staring you in the face.

I still think Henrythenavigator is a bit of value to surprise him though.
 
I think Ibn Khaldun will prove effective at a longer distance than New Approach.

Just a hunch.

Pedigree may suggest that IK will be 8-10f, but there are grounds for looking at middle distance proving his forté. A fascinating blend of pace and stamina in the pedigree.

Similarly, the favourite looks like a middle distance horse on paper, but has half brothers proficient at a mile and less (admittedly by horses who transmit less stamina than Galileo).

I think that New Approach will prove the faster of the two.
 
ibn khaldun is very interesting, not least when you consider the hugeimprovement he made last season as it went on. he certainly knows how to gallop. i cant help but think that he may be vulnerable to the shrper types tomorrowbut it wouldnt beabig shock to me if hedid mange to win.

in fairness dj,its not too shabby,difficulty usingnet aside even though private is different gearaltogeher!
 
I know I might be wrong, but Ibn Khaldun started his winning streak beating the 71 rated Mark Johnston filly by 1.25 lengths. He beat Redolent to nail his first Group contest - Redolent has failed to win Listed races this spring.

He beat City Leader (admittedly the Royal Lodge winner) in the Futurity, but City Leader was beaten out of sight in the Craven.

Ok Curtain Call came out at franked the form at Nottingham but the form of that race told us very little indeed.

I really don't see how Ibn Khaldun can get close to New Approach on form. I know he is a very short price, but how much shorter would he be if he was trained at Ballydolye or Stanley House?

Raven's Pass did his bit for the Dewhurst form in the Craven, and I still believe New Approach was not at his best in the Dewhurst.

I cannot see New Approach being beaten in the Guineas has he has stamina in abundance, can set a true test if he wants, and also has that necessary touch of class to see of the speedier types. A bet of the season for me!
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@May 2 2008, 11:39 AM
I think Ibn Khaldun will prove effective at a longer distance than New Approach.

Just a hunch.

Pedigree may suggest that IK will be 8-10f, but there are grounds for looking at middle distance proving his forté. A fascinating blend of pace and stamina in the pedigree.

Similarly, the favourite looks like a middle distance horse on paper, but has half brothers proficient at a mile and less (admittedly by horses who transmit less stamina than Galileo).

I think that New Approach will prove the faster of the two.
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My feeling is also that New Approach will be faster than Ibn Khaldun in the Guineas. I also think New Approach will outstay IK. We should remember that speed/stamina are not mutually exclusive. The characteristics of any horse reside in how much these characteristics overlap. Look at Dancing Brave for example. After his Guineas win some said he wouldn't get 12 furlongs in a horse box. Likewise when Petrushka won her Guineas trial she was branded a sprinter when she was bound to improve at further. Daylami was another.

Whatever New Approach does in the Guineas (which he will probably win) I expect him to better that performance at middle distances (e.g. the Irish Derby).
 
Get well soon SL

I have no opinion on the 2000G, i hope the best horse wins. If I had to have a bet, I would be on the jolly. Not a big fan of Ravens Pass.
 
I have a feeling that the race will not be run at that fast a pace.

This may play into the hands of Raven's Pass, who, although not certain to get a mile, seemed to stick on well enough in the Craven and will be well suited by the drying ground.

New Approach should be staying on well at the death, and Stimulation looks the best of the unexposed types and could run into a place.
 
Sorry that you are poorly Shads, get well soon. (I hope the intolerancectomy went well.)

For those who are interested IBN K will win the Guineas, come 3rd in the Derby, 2nd at York and UNPL in the Arc. He will be retired to stud soon afterwards. Frankie will say he was one of the best he ever rode.
 
Didn`t Dettori turn his back on the horse to ride in the Breeders Cup on RP Trophy day? If I haven`t got me dates mixed up surely McKevoy deserves the ride.
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@May 2 2008, 10:16 AM
Hope you are feeling better soon. You should go private. The punctuation is much better ;-)
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:laughing: :clap: :laughing: :clap:

It's an intriguing event (ie the race, not SL's unfortunate predicament - get well soon, hen. :) )

I've tried to short-cut the usual approach and focus on the most likely candidates while not losing sight of the less exposed runners.

Three horses stand out on 2yo times. Not surprisingly, these are Ibn Khaldun (115, 8f late Oct), New Approach (115, 7f late Oct) and Raven's Pass (120, 7f Sept). The figures are 'raw' figures, ie unadjusted for the 2yo wfa allowance.

The latter two met in the Dewhurst, the race in which New Approach put up his figure, beating Raven's Pass, but that was the first time Raven's Pass had encountered softish ground, which could easily account for the 2½ lengths difference between there and Sandown, where he posted his 120 impressively.

Ibn Khaldun took a less prestigious route and his 115 on his final appearance represented the next peak on his upward curve.

What will happen tomorrow? I'm not ruling out any of these three. New Approach, as Steve says, is bred to be better over longer trips - certainly than the Dewhurst - so there has to be the strong possibility that he can surpass his 115. Raven's Pass can already run faster than 115 on decent ground but will he be able to produce it over the extra distance? It seems logical to me to conclude that whatever advantage the ground gives Raven's Pass, it will be offset by the trip favouring New Approach.

And what of Ibn Khaldun? We know that Warbler on the other forum has had this one very highly rated for some time. His 6lb+ defeat of City Leader has been franked elsewhere and collateral form entitles him to equal respect to the other two.

Henrythenavigator's two defeats coincided with the only two times he's raced on ground with the word 'soft' in the description, yet he wasn't beaten far by New Approach, to whom he was conceding weight, on one of those occasions. This, arguably, puts him in the same situation as Raven's Pass but Henry is better bred for the trip.

Throw in some other likely future stars from notable yards and an upset cannot be ruled out of the equation but I don't remember ever sitting on the fence in the 2000 Guineas and I'm not about to climb up on one now.

I reckon New Approach can find a fair amount of improvement at this mile before finding even more at further and we know he already has the right level of speed for a Guineas winner, since 115-120 is about the norm for a winner before the 3yo wfa allowance is added.

I think Ibn Khaldun is the more likely candidate to chase him home in the belief that winning this race is more imortant to Godolphin than it is to Coolmore, so it's Henrythenavigator for third spot with Raven's Pass touched off in the minor berth.
 
Cheers - but I thought you all knew about the baby?

Home now so can get back to better punctuation, and more importantly, accessing Betfair!!!
 
Great stuff on this....I think New Approach will win but it wouldn't surprise me to see any that DO mention go very close. Really looking forward to tomorrow's contest. Ground should be perfect.
 
Well my advocacy should be enough to sink Khaldun on it's own, but I think it's only fair to acknowledge that Chris was on to him first. I was in fairness looking out for him armed with Chris's insight, but the first time I would have picked him up was at Ascot, and then he went to the top of my figures at Donny. If we say that New Approach will go off no bigger than 2/1 then he's in pretty good company.

Dubawi 11/8 - 5th
One Cool Cat 15/8 - 13th
Hawk Wing 6/4 - 2nd
Xaar 10/11 - 4th
Alhaarth 2/1 - 4th
Celtic Swing 4/5 - 2nd

Only Zafonic and George Washington have landed the spoils in the last 15 years, although if I wanted to be selective I could say only George in the last 14. Other BF's include Adagio 9th, Hold That Tiger 17th, Tobugg 9th, Giants Causeway 2nd, Orpen 15th, Revoque 2nd, and Kings Theatre 13th

2 wins and 4 places in 15 years, it's not quite place laying territory, but isn't far away and being drawn in 2 might present problems yet. The Newmarket draw bias is a dark mystery the bottom to which I have never got to. Officially there is none, yet I've seen too many examples where it most definately exists (usually on the July Course in fairness). I think the problem with it, is that it shifts around on a day to day basis almost meaning that it's incapable of being tracked with any sense of prediction. This being so, we are told there is no bias, when in actual fact one often exists and can be quite pronounced, it's just that it never seems to be in the same place.

In the same 15 year period high numbers have won 46% with middle and low 27% each. There might be a chance yet that New Approach down in stall 2 could get isolated a bit as he doesn't necessarily seem to be surrounded by the better horses (1-8 look weaker than 9 - 15). Having said that, I'm not sure what the effect will be or where the pace will come from, which is probably more important.

I don't remember Mark of Esteems win, in fact I can barely remember what happened last week yet alone 1996, but a look at the race comments for a field of 13 sugests they split into a stands group and a centre group, with the centre providing the 1-2-3. In fields of 16 or less though, low numbers seem to hold sway

George Washington 6 of 14
Haafhd 4 of 14
Island Sands 3 of 16
Entrepreneur 4 of 16
Mark of Esteem 2 of 13
Pennekamp 11 of 11
Zafonic 10 of 14
 
It has to be said you were the outsider of the field to reply first, AC!!

Must be the effects of the codeine, apologies, it wasn't amusing really......was actually a hip op :shy:
 
Originally posted by Warbler@May 2 2008, 09:19 PM


I don't remember Mark of Esteems win, in fact I can barely remember what happened last week yet alone 1996, but a look at the race comments for a field of 13 sugests they split into a stands group and a centre group, with the centre providing the 1-2-3. In fields of 16 or less though, low numbers seem to hold sway

George Washington 6 of 14
Haafhd 4 of 14
Island Sands 3 of 16
Entrepreneur 4 of 16
Mark of Esteem 2 of 13
Pennekamp 11 of 11
Zafonic 10 of 14
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Mark of Esteem came stands side in his win. Beat a Tompkins horse i can`t remember the name of.

Low numbers holding sway i don`t buy because it depends where the stalls are place. Haafhd may have been drawn 4 but the stalls were on the far side in 2004.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@May 2 2008, 08:32 PM
Must be the effects of the codeine, apologies, it wasn't amusing really......was actually a hip op :shy:
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A sh*t, and I'm into rap...
 
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