2016 Gold Cuppin

EC1 said:
that March theory isn't logical for any novice..that was his target as it is most novices..you could say that about every novice that wins a festival race when you view their from,,ooh look he peaked in March..no..he peaked for his target..this year he had the KG as an erlier target..if the festival was held in December..then that would have been his peak month last yesr..a flawed theory imo
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It isn't a theory though is it. Willie has openly said that he trains all of his to peak in March.

Of the Gigginstown lot Valseur Lido seems like the logical option for the Ryanair. He's been put in his place over 3 miles this season but is very closely tied in with Apache Stronghold who would have a live chance should Vautour not turn up.
 
Maruco said:
Why? He finished third last year and was probably at his peak. This year looks the deepest I remember even without Coneygree, and how does he turn the form round with Djackadam at the very least? I'd say he's running for third at best, whereas the Ryanair is his for the taking. Plus O'Leary has at least three more guns to aim at The Gold Cup, so re-routing him gives him his best chance of landing both.
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If the rain hadn't come he may well have won last year. That is the main reason he should run and entitles him to another crack. If it's decent ground then he's a player.
If he did run in Ryanair I agree he would be a player but he deserves a shot at the big one.
Don Poli has a bit to prove as does Don Cossack though I expect him to run well.
Clearly Djakadam is the one to beat with or without Coneygree. His run last year as a baby was huge but if RTR does bypass it then one less to worry about.
 
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Don Cossack only wins easily or not at all. I could be wrong but I don't think he's ever won by less than a length and I think he's a little soft. It's actually my only concern about Vautour, as well, if he has to battle. Don Poli on the other hand is tough as old boots and is almost gold plated to run up the hill.
 
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TheBear said:
It isn't a theory though is it. Willie has openly said that he trains all of his to peak in March.

Of the Gigginstown lot Valseur Lido seems like the logical option for the Ryanair. He's been put in his place over 3 miles this season but is very closely tied in with Apache Stronghold who would have a live chance should Vautour not turn up.
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so none of his horses show their best until March?...I don't really buy that..horses have more than one peak of form per season. Horses that win multiple Group races throughout any flat or jumps seasons have to be ready a number of times per season. I can understand it with novices to a degree..but not older hosses
 
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EC1 said:
so none of his horses show their best until March?...I don't really buy that..horses have more than one peak of form per season. Horses that win multiple Group races throughout any flat or jumps seasons have to be ready a number of times per season. I can understand it with novices to a degree..but not older hosses
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I can guarantee you that WPM works back from the spring festivals for his best horses. Be very rare that one of his regresses from its last run before Cheltenham.
 
archie said:
Don Poli is O'Leary's only realistic GC horse. RTR not (quite) good enough and Don Cossack not tough enough.
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RTR ran a blinder in a superb race last year on unsuitable ground. He's good enough.
Don Cossack had nothing go his way in KG yet kept going and most likely would have won.
His Ryanair should be marked up judging on how it panned out.
 
It's not the flat though. Ricci and Mullins have gone on record numerous times saying that their horses are primed for the spring.
 
archie said:
Don Cossack only wins easily or not at all. I could be wrong but I don't think he's ever won by less than a length and I think he's a little soft. It's actually my only concern about Vautour, as well, if he has to battle. Don Poli on the other hand is tough as old boots and is almost gold plated to run up the hill.
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good reply that Archie..point taken

Don Poli is a bit like Bobs Worth..gets going when others have packed in
 
TheBear said:
It's not the flat though. Ricci and Mullins have gone on record numerous times saying that their horses are primed for the spring.
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i said both codes though

i don't believe horses only have one peak per season...to win G1's throughout a season you have to be pretty much on your best

and if they are so primed for the spring..why do they do so badly at Aintree..they do worse there than any other time of the season
 
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One thing I will concede is that the race won't be run like last year? Coneygree was relentless. What makes the running and how does the complexion of the race change depending on how it's run?
 
EC1 said:
i said both codes though

i don't believe horses only have one peak per season...to win G1's throughout a season you have to be pretty much on your best

and if they are so primed for the spring..why do they do so badly at Aintree..they do worse there than any other time of the season
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The amount of horses primed to peak at Cheltenham, massively exceeds the amount of horses genuinely primed to peak at Aintree. "The Spring" is too loose a measurement to have any real relevance, imo, and Aintree is essentially an after-thought (which would explain why Cheltenham form is often turned-over at the Aintree meeting).
 
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Maruco said:
One thing I will concede is that the race won't be run like last year? Coneygree was relentless. What makes the running and how does the complexion of the race change depending on how it's run?
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Was thinking about this yesterday and was struggling to think of one to make the pace. Could be that Ruby is thinking he can dictate it on Vautor, a bit like he did on Faugheen in last years CH.
 
Pace will be interesting. I'm assuming if Ruby is on Vautour that he will be allowed to lead while walking first mile with an orderly queue behind then waving as he sets off to win.
 
Frankel said:
RTR ran a blinder in a superb race last year on unsuitable ground. He's good enough.
Don Cossack had nothing go his way in KG yet kept going and most likely would have won.
His Ryanair should be marked up judging on how it panned out.
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How on earth has the Ryanair panned out well? Don Cossack has run and failed twice at the festival. He's run and failed once in the KG. Once it happens, twice a coincidence, three times a pattern.
 
archie said:
How on earth has the Ryanair panned out well? Don Cossack has run and failed twice at the festival. He's run and failed once in the KG. Once it happens, twice a coincidence, three times a pattern.
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The trip was clearly short enough. A blunder then blocked. He ran on well. I can see the Cheltenham point to a degree.
Judging him on his KG is harsh considering he probably would have won when things hadn't gone well. Deserves credit for sticking at it.
 
Frankel said:
Pace will be interesting. I'm assuming if Ruby is on Vautour that he will be allowed to lead while walking first mile with an orderly queue behind then waving as he sets off to win.
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There's no way they'll let him get away with it. It'd be playing in to his hands if they did. I think more likely Gigi would enter a pacemaker to stop it happening if they've got any sense. At the very least one of their jockeys would be given instructions to take it up. Willie would know this of course so probably won't happen anyway.
 
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Frankel said:
Pace will be interesting. I'm assuming if Ruby is on Vautour that he will be allowed to lead while walking first mile with an orderly queue behind then waving as he sets off to win.
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I expect Ruby to ride Vautour facing backwards over the first half-dozen; reciting James Joyce for the edification of the assembled jockey-masses. After stopping for a dump and a cup of tea by the Water Jump (second circuit), I expect him to change swiftly back into his race-silks, rejoinder the race with a quick "Giddy-up", collect the leaders jumping three-out, and canter to victory side-saddle, whilst tootling on a French Horn.
 
Three and half days into the Festival and I wouldn't be surprised at all if that's what your seeing Grassy!
 
Maruco said:
There's no way they'll let him get away with it. It'd be playing in to his hands if they did. I think more likely Gigi would enter a pacemaker to stop it happening if they've got any sense.
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They won't waste Don Cossack as a pace-maker, and Don Poli won't be able to go the pace. RTR you reckon goes to Ryanair, which leaves Giggi with Valseur Lido, who may have Jacques Ricou on top....a man so clueless about Cheltenham pace, he managed to get Jair Du Cochet beaten by a boat like One Knight.
 
:)..at post 248

pacewise i just don't see all the other trainers letting a horse..that the only chink they think he has is staying..get a soft lead..like Maruco says..even if you don't want your main hope leading..you would have something else from the stable set the pace..and keep your main hope not to far away from it
 
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