2016 Gold Cuppin

Grasshopper said:
Whilst I am certainly guilty of being a tit, my actions were borne of disbelief rather than panic, Frankel. :lol:

Convince myself of what exactly, though?

That Vautour will run in the Gold Cup? Surely that much is already self-evident?

That he will stay? It remains to be seen. I'm no wiser about his stamina than the next man.....I just view the mitigating factors more positively than others.

Regardless, why would a Vautour supporter be worried, when Djakadam has just fallen in his prep? Isn't it logical that Djakadam supporters are the ones who should be mildly concerned? I think you know the answer, don't you? For Vautour supporters, the Argento result was nothing but positive (and again, you know it).
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We'll agree on the first part. Though I'm sure it was panic also :D

The need to check (out of disbelief) when one has fallen doesn't strike me as someone who is even convinced he will even line up let alone get the trip.
A hard core supporter would have just laughed that comment off.

Myself and the Djakaholics remain undimmed and 100% committed to Gold Cup success.
A gentle expletive of f**k and all the 'non' doubts had been eroded.

:ninja:
 
Cue Card could well be the forgotten horse in this race. 3 wins from 3 this season, stamina doubts answered and cracking previous festival form. It's testament to the quality of the race this year that he's only 7/1 5th fav.
 
Frankel said:
We'll agree on the first part. Though I'm sure it was panic also :D

The need to check (out of disbelief) when one has fallen doesn't strike me as someone who is even convinced he will even line up let alone get the trip.
A hard core supporter would have just laughed that comment off.

Myself and the Djakaholics remain undimmed and 100% committed to Gold Cup success.
A gentle expletive of f**k and all the 'non' doubts had been eroded.

:ninja:
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Committed?

You fu*cking should be. ;)

You reckon my bottle is wobbling with Vautour?

We'll see. :lol:
 
TheBear said:
Cue Card could well be the forgotten horse in this race. 3 wins from 3 this season, stamina doubts answered and cracking previous festival form. It's testament to the quality of the race this year that he's only 7/1 5th fav.
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'Stamina doubts answered'. Really?
 
Grasshopper said:
Committed?

You fu*cking should be. ;)

You reckon my bottle is wobbling with Vautour?

We'll see. :lol:
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I may well be come March ......... 2019. He's a few more cracks at it yet :lol:

Actually, no I don't think you have. Just fu**ing deluded :lol: :D
 
Falling over the edge isn't the painful part - it's the landing that hurts. You're a man in blissfully-unaware free-fall, and you ain't got no wings.

:lol:

:cool:
 
I'll settle for Djak having the wings.
If it's me with no wings then can I extend to 2021 :lol:

You have accepted the 'deluded' tag then :lol: :D
 
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Grasshopper said:
Djakadam suffers cuts in fall
Djakadam reportedly suffered only minor injuries in his fall. Joe Chambers, owner Rich Ricci's racing manager, said: "Djakadam has a couple of cuts between his front legs but he was taken off the course in the veterinary van purely as a precaution. Ruby [Walsh] is confident it is nothing to worry about."
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Stitches today and a week in the box. Not exactly what you want pre GC
 
Gold Cuppin

Grasshopper said:
I reckon CC and Vautour both have still to prove their stamina for a Gold Cup.
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I'd have thought the fact it took Cue Card every inch of the 3 miles at Kempton, a flat track, to get up meant he was crying out for something like the Cheltenham hill. Add in his Wetherby & Haydock demolition jobs over 3m in deep ground & for me there's no stamina doubts whatsoever. He is going to be a huge player.

Vautour on the other hand is a different kettle of fish. A horse with a lot of class but a look at the last 2f of the King George tells you what you need to know about him potentially staying the gold cup trip. Add into the mix the way he came home in the Supreme & JLT lSt year and your most definitely looking at a horse who excels over a trip well in excess of the gold cup one.

Another thing that sticks in my mind, having read it before Christmas, is that Willie Mullins judges his horses solely on their races there and then at the track through his binoculars, a trait his late father Paddy passed on to him. He doesn't take notes or watch replays etc. The bit below from 'The Irish Field' confirms as much. This has obviously served him very well over the years being Champion trainer in Ireland for so long. He trusts in his own initial judgment.

In the aftermath of the King George defeat to Cue Card Channel 4 approached Mullins who graciously stopped to chat for a minute. He was asked about his feeling on the race and if ultimately Vautour had failed to stay the 3m trip. Mullins response was "Well it looks like that, yeah". That's from what Mullins had just witnessed through those same binoculars from the Kempton stands and that's what I, and many others, witnessed from the comfort of my own living room.


Now if the trainer thinks he didn't get the King George trip over 3m at Kempton what chance has he in a faster run race on a course as stiff as Cheltenham over 2f further?

That always stuck in my mind & I tend to pay a lot of heed to what Willie says in the immediate aftermath of a big race to get a true reflection on what he actually thinks. Not in the days or weeks after when owners, staff or jockeys have all had their speak.

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Vautour will run in the Gold Cup, Kauto Abu.

Get over it, and get on.

I'm already on-record re the stamina question.

:cool:
 
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He runs in it alright, I'm not debating that. I'm just pointing out the fact his trainer doesn't think he stays 3m


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Alan King confirms Smad Place goes for the Gold Cup & will be ridden pretty 'pretty handy'.


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Mullins has said nothing of the sort, KA. Come on.

He said "it looks like that, yeah"........and quickly qualified it by saying "I'm not taking him out of it (the Gold Cup) anyway".

It would be wholly counter-intuitive for Mullins and Ricci to train Vautour for the Gold Cup, if they don't think he stays. The very fact the race remains the target means that they clearly think he does stay, which is the polar-opposite of what you are trying to infer, from an inconclusive quote issued issue five minutes after his horse has been beaten in the King George.
 
there is an interesting comparison of the this years KG with last years..bear in mind the going stick said 5.5 when CC won and 6.1 when SC won..the times on both cards for all races suggest there was very lttle difference in the ground on both days. It could be argued that it was actually a length or so quicker when CC won..but..there is very little difference between both surfaces. Its not often you get a chance to compare two races as big as this on near identical ground.

Last year..SC ran very efficiently thorughout compared with data from other 3 mile races here. It was a solid pace..run completely efficiently.

Splitting the race into 3 slices looks like this

F1-F7F7-F13F13-FIN
2014Silviniano Conti118.00130.60 96.00 344.60
2015Cue Card119.40129.63 98.20 347.20

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[TD="width: 86"] Total [/TD]

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That shows that energy used was pretty equal to F13 because..SC ran 7 len quicker to fence 7..but in middlle section CC ran 5 faster than SC...so to be fair they should both run a similar time from fence 13 to the finish as they have used a similar combined energy from F1 to f13

..but they don't...SC ran it 11 lengths faster

The reasons behind that 11 lengths shortfall..i'll leave up to you to address..or ignore
 
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I haven't infered anything ...you can see the figures..I know what i think about it but i'm not passing a view yet..i want to do more comparisons with other years..but CC finish is slower than it should be late on.. that is very clear. Its quite clear that both horses have run in a similar manner to F13..energy used..but SC has finished 11 lengths faster..obviously this was the proper SC and what he has run that year was what i would say is a benchmark in pace distribution over this 3 mile trip

i'll have a look and try and find another comparison..probably on slightly slower ground than either of teh above..and then look at finishing time to see if other winners have run faster late than CC on slower ground,,,after running efficiently.

I do think thats a weak finish...don't you?

One think that crosses my mind is..that a horse that stays better than CC..ie the Don..had he stood up..wouldn't have had to be pegasus to run a faster finish than CC..because if you magic last years SC into this years race..he would not have been stopping..his 2 second faster finish tells you that
 
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Are you inferring it was a weak finish or not? Your first and last sentences appear to contradict each other. :cool:

Here's my view.

If the numbers suggest something which is wildly at variance with the visual and collateral evidence, then I would probably question the numbers.

However, I do respect your research.
 
Just to confirm the similarity of ground...in a basic way..these are the times of all races on both days..i've obviously worked out GA's in more detail but i would imagine that someone looking at the comparison might assume CC race was on slower ground..but that isn't the case

20142015
1st race231.1230.1
2nd race312.1309.6
3rd race367.7370.0
4th race226.3227.7
5th race363.3363.5
6th race317.4317.6

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even just looking at those..its pretty similar

having been doing NH speed figures for all meetings over the last few months it struck me that it might be the case that some direct time comparisons are available if i did some old meetings and find similar going days.

when i first did the figures this year i assumed that CC's low fin% 94.9% compared with SC last year 97.8%...was down to a very strong early pace taking its toll..thats what i said to you after the race i think Grass. I don't think thats the case looking at the earlier splits

when you look at the comparison with SC last year..its clear that early efforts are not cause of CC slow finish..CC has gone overal to F13..a pace condusive to finishing in a par manner..but has failed to run a par finish. A slow finish % is either..a strong early pace taking toll late on....or horses slowing down..its not the early/mid pace that slowed CC..its an ebbing of stamina compared to a horse like SC who we know has stamina for this test imo.

my view up to press is that both CC and V were sitting ducks as they were finishing slower than par ...and that a horse like SC from previous year would have taken them..the figures certainly suggest that to me
 
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I personally wouldn't think either of them can stay ....based on that..but i am going to find another year to confirm it in my mind.

You can only beat what is in a race..i'm not knocking V or CC..they were still there to fight that finish out whereas..on the day..others for various reasons did not run their race. By doing this analysis we can try and put other horses at their peak in against them..up to press,,a match fit SC would have run faster later..after using similar early/mid petrol...that would concern me personally about Vautour getting further..others will think its just bollix and completely ignore it. I can't really do that..i have to try and find out with all the evidence available just what is the worth of the performances we have already seen.
 
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