2016 Gold Cuppin

I think that part of the rebuttal would be that SC is much better on a flat track and Vautour is better left-handed and on spring ground.
 
Right..another comparison

When Long Run won..the ground was officially G/S soft places..same as other two years....no going stick reading..but on my calcs it was a little bit slower than either SC's year or Cue Cards. We not talking much though..2 lengths per mile at most..but the important bit is..it was fractionally slower
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F1-F7F7-F13F13-FINTotal

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2014Silviano Conti118.00130.6096.00344.60
2015Cue Card119.40129.6398.20347.23
2010Long Run120.71129.4094.40344.51

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</tbody>

Long Runs race was in the ground..again a decently run race..most KG's are from my data...finishing % was 98.7%..it was very decently run..up to F13 it was a sceond slower than Cue Cards..which is fair given slightly fractionally slower ground. As a pace scenario..all these races are really similar up to F13.

The crucial point again is..even though Long Run has used similar petrol to Cue Card at F13..on slightly slower ground..he has run from fence 13 to finish.....nearly 4.0 seconds faster than CC..thats 20 lengths

It can be said that of the 3 races Long Run ran slower to fence 7..some of that is slower ground...but his run from F7 to F13 was faster than the other two....and by the time they get to F13 he is just 5 lengths slower than CC..the ground accounting for some of that difference. But from F13 to finish..he has beaten CC by 20 lengths...on slower ground

What those 3 race figures show me..is that two of the winners stay very well..Long Run especially so...but that CC does not stay as well as either of them by some way.

They also tell me that LR was a tad better than SC over this trip on the days when they both put in proper staying efforts

I'll try and find another one later
 
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Gold Cuppin

Grasshopper said:
Mullins has said nothing of the sort, KA. Come on.

He said "it looks like that, yeah"........and quickly qualified it by saying "I'm not taking him out of it (the Gold Cup) anyway".

It would be wholly counter-intuitive for Mullins and Ricci to train Vautour for the Gold Cup, if they don't think he stays. The very fact the race remains the target means that they clearly think he does stay, which is the polar-opposite of what you are trying to infer, from an inconclusive quote issued issue five minutes after his horse has been beaten in the King George.
Click to expand...


Of course he wasn't going to take him out of it, he'll have entries from Queen Mother up to the Gold Cup right up to final decs and rightly so. Again, i'm not debating on whether he'll run or not in the GC, it certainly looks like he will.

The point I'm making is that Mullins is going back on his initial gut feeling, that the horse didn't stay at Kempton if they do indeed decide to go for the gold cup in March. That can't be good. Now whether that feeling was aired 5 seconds or 5 minutes after the race is irrelevant. I've already highlighted above where Willie Mullins makes judgment on his horses, there and then on the course through his own binoculars, picking up on every last detail so that interview gives you the best insight on his true feeling on the matter of Vautour staying or not. "It probably looks like his stamina ran out"


Here's the full quote below quoted from an Irish newspaper from that Channel 4 interview in the aftermath of the race. It gives a fairly straightforward view on his initial gut feeling and they're his words, not mine.

Mullins was magnanimous in defeat and admitted it was "probably" a lack of stamina which cost Vautour.
"He didn't jump the last as efficiently as he could have, but it was a very brave run, as it was from the winner. I don't know if his stamina gave out, but it probably looks like that.
"We won't make a decision about the Gold Cup for a while, we'll see what we have to run in it when it comes - I won't be taking him out of it, anyhow."


There you have it in black and white that Willie Mullins feels Vautours stamina probably gave out. So for you to argue that he clearly does think he'll stay the gold cup trip just doesn't make sense. Cheltenham will be 2f further, concluding with a gruelling hill after a faster gallop that that at Kempton. Smad Place will ensure that after Alan King today confirmed he'll be ridden 'pretty handy' come March. In other words like his Hennessey win & his Argento win yesterday from the front off a fast gallop.

Perhaps they're thinking going back left handed is going to be of some benefit to him or sitting longer, spring ground etc, I have no idea into their line of thinking of how they're going to plan to get him home in front. There's no quotes or thinking from them suggesting he'll definitely stay the gold cup trip, they're living more in hope. There are to the contrary tho from his trainer. Also from Ruby's paddy power Christmas blog,

" Will Vautour stay the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip next March? Honestly, I don’t think we can answer that question until we try it."

would also suggest they're living more in hope than anything else. But to argue that they definitely think he stays because he's being trained for it is nonsense. Look at Silvinaco Conti & what that hill done to him. Florida Pearl most certainly didn't like that finish & was trained for that race on numerous occasions with stamina assured.

Vautour has too much speed & not enough stamina. That hill will devour him. Kauto Star was the exception with class, speed & stamina in abundance.

Kauto Stars only come along once in a lifetime tho.



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I haven't done it with the Long Run year but I've just played the other two races side to side from the first fence onwards. They're pretty much bang even until about to turn in. That's when SC begins to pull away gradually and even Dynaste went past CC & Vautour.

Sounds like Long Run would've been even further ahead.
 
these are the full splits comparing LR and CC

F1 – F4F4 – F7
Long Run60.4360.2869.6159.7756.9637.46
Cue Card59.9559.4070.4359.2058.9539.26

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[TD="width: 66"] F7 – F10 [/TD]
[TD="width: 71"] F10 – F13 [/TD]
[TD="width: 79"] F13 – F16 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F16 – FIN [/TD]

</tbody>

another comparison within them is

Long Run F1-F16 = 307.1
Cue Card F1-F16 = 307.9

Fence 17 to line was 1.8 seconds faster [9 lengths) by Long Run..on slower ground
 
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Kauto Abu said:
Of course he wasn't going to take him out of it, he'll have entries from Queen Mother up to the Gold Cup right up to final decs and rightly so. Again, i'm not debating on whether he'll run or not in the GC, it certainly looks like he will.

The point I'm making is that Mullins is going back on his initial gut feeling, that the horse didn't stay at Kempton if they do indeed decide to go for the gold cup in March. That can't be good. Now whether that feeling was aired 5 seconds or 5 minutes after the race is irrelevant. I've already highlighted above where Willie Mullins makes judgment on his horses, there and then on the course through his own binoculars, picking up on every last detail so that interview gives you the best insight on his true feeling on the matter of Vautour staying or not. "It probably looks like his stamina ran out"


Here's the full quote below quoted from an Irish newspaper from that Channel 4 interview in the aftermath of the race. It gives a fairly straightforward view on his initial gut feeling and they're his words, not mine.

Mullins was magnanimous in defeat and admitted it was "probably" a lack of stamina which cost Vautour.
"He didn't jump the last as efficiently as he could have, but it was a very brave run, as it was from the winner. I don't know if his stamina gave out, but it probably looks like that.
"We won't make a decision about the Gold Cup for a while, we'll see what we have to run in it when it comes - I won't be taking him out of it, anyhow."


There you have it in black and white that Willie Mullins feels Vautours stamina probably gave out. So for you to argue that he clearly does think he'll stay the gold cup trip just doesn't make sense. Cheltenham will be 2f further, concluding with a gruelling hill after a faster gallop that that at Kempton. Smad Place will ensure that after Alan King today confirmed he'll be ridden 'pretty handy' come March. In other words like his Hennessey win & his Argento win yesterday from the front off a fast gallop.

Perhaps they're thinking going back left handed is going to be of some benefit to him or sitting longer etc, I have no idea into their line of thinking of how they're going to plan to get him home in front. There's no quotes or thinking from them suggesting he'll definitely stay the gold cup trip, they're living more in hope. There are to the contrary Ruby's paddy power Christmas blog,

" Will Vautour stay the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip next March? Honestly, I don’t think we can answer that question until we try it."

would also suggest they're living more in hope than anything else. But to argue that they definitely think he stays because he's being trained for it is nonsense. Look at Silvinaco Conti & what that hill done to him. Florida Pearl most certainly didn't like that finish & was trained for that race on numerous occasions with stamina assured.

Vautour has too much speed & not enough stamina. That hill will devour him. Kauto Star was the exception with class, speed & stamina in abundance.

Kauto Stars only come along once in a lifetime tho.



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Click to expand...


Read this bit you yourself quoted, KA:

"I don't know if his stamina gave out, but it probably looks like that."

Mullins categorically does not state that he thinks Vautour is a non-stayer - only that the viewer might think that. Mullins himself does not profess to know one way or the other.
 
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Gold Cuppin

That's where you & I differ greatly so grassy. I don't know what else is he could've said. Maybe the fact the horse looked punch drunk from 2f out and his stride shortened dramatically. That he slowed alarmingly from 2 out or he started jumping out left once the petrol was gone would convince you? But he wasn't going to say that now was he. You sound like a fella who has a lot invested and you're trying to convince yourself.

But hey, it's all opinion and March will tell us who was right & who was wrong. If i'm wrong I'll have no problem admitting it bit on all evidence I feel I'll be proven right.

I was convinced Vautour wouldn't get the KG trip, I backed Cue Card accordingly and absolutely nothing from that race would convince me in any way he'll get the GC trip. How could it?

This reminds me of 2014 before Jezki's champion hurdle win when some fellas here were trying to convince themselves all Hurricane Fly had to do was turn up to win when all the evidence told otherwise.


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To repeat, KA, I had precisely nothing on Vautour for the Gold Cup, until after the King George. My decision to back him was made after he had run at Kempton - not before - and therefore struck in the full knowledge that question marks about his stamina would remain until Cheltenham. I have not suggested his stamina is certain - I have only explained what I see as the reasons as to why I think he will stay.

I therefore refute the suggestion that my view on his stamina is tainted by money. If I was genuinely concerned, I simply would not have backed him.

You can read Mullins comments any way you wish, but they are less equivocal than you seem to think.

:cool:
 
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Again it's a matter of opinion on Mullins comments. Best of luck with your bet and the main thing is he comes home safe. (That hill can be ruthless when it swallows one up & spits it out again) :D


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We now have our 'Best Cheltenham Thread 2016'. The CH thread took the honours in 2014, the QMCC last year. Cracking thread, chaps - wonderfully informed and argued. Thank you.
 
Re Willie Mullins, he has stated the Gold Cup "standard " test as per Tom Dreaper was to lead all the way and carry top weight in The Thyestes Chase or similar big handicap.
On His Own and Djakadam were able to do that.
Ask yourself would Vautour be able to ?
I would say no.
I agree that at Kempton there were two doubtful stayers fighting out the finish and Don Cossack's untimely fall confirms that in so far as he was never travelling and would not/ should not have been disputing for the lead at that stage all things being equal.
Mid March less than half an inch of rain can change the going overnight; we have seen that in two of the last three years.
As for who wins I am none the wiser but would wait for the going on the day to have a serious opinion as to who is best suited.
Staying is the name of the game even above jumping as Synchronised and Lord Windermere have shown us, and they won on good ground do not forget.
 
Very interesting thread. There seems to be plenty of people mentioning that both horses were finishing very tired and slow in the King George. The times support this and so does the naked eye generally. I haven't seen too much mention of people saying that both horses were entitled to be tired though. The field were strung out turning in. I don't expect anybody to do this but I'd be most interested in the finishing speed of the horses in behind as opposed to comparing different years. I'd imagine the horses behind Cue Card and Vautour were finishing relatively slowly, if that is the case it would seem unlikely they are all non stayers. Maybe Smad Place is the only decent marker that finished but it's probably more likely that the field were very tired because they went so hard. Don Cossack might have been finishing stronger than the front two but it looked a sloppy, tired fall as did Valseur Lido's. Brutal race, it was two brave performances from the front two in my opinion.
 
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there was no reason for any horse to finish slowly re pace is the answer..any horse in that race could have a 100 reasons for finishing slowly..but it wasn't an over strong pace that stopped them..for instance..Long Run went a similar pace as did SC last year..and they finished lengths in front of CC and V

This is where i differ with general view..I don't worry about why horses behind went slow..its reason why first two did that is the crux..and the only answer i find is that they couldn't go as fast as others in the past who faced a similar pace task

Like i said..you have the front two finishing slower than other KG winners..with nothing behind offereing oppo..so you win by fact of being in front. Had 2010 Long Run or 2014 SC been in that race..the first two would have finished 2nd + 3rd,..imo

If you take the view its irrelevant figure wankery..which is everyones choice..then ignore the figures and back Vautour is the conclusion

I believe in giving people something to look at ..they either take it on board or ignore..thats what we all do really isn't it?. In my view..you either follow figures..the trainer or gut view..or whatever turns you on.

From my numbers perspective..i wouldn't back Vautour if neighbour ran round and give me a ton to put on it..others will have a different view and say f00k the numbers i'm on. I can't do that as my whole betting thinking is numbers based..i don't rely on a trainer or other other methods..we all have different ways
 
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On the flip side he would have had a quiet week or so after the race in any event and has been spared a tough tough race if he was not fully wound up .

The NRNB business prevents huge price fluctuations as well no ? ( I am no bookie, not even a decent punter !)

That said a fall is never ideal .

P.S. Welcome treaty; great to have a new opinion or two .
 
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Mullins may let Vautour take his chance in the Irish Gold Cup; though isn't sure if he wants to run him again before Cheltenham.

ATR app has (a little more) detail.
 
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