2016 Gold Cuppin

Absolutely fair enough position to adopt, EC1.

In was reading one of your posts on another thread earlier, and you clearly have a great deal of faith in your research - which is no bad thing. I am confident that Vautour will stay the trip in the Gold Cup - not necessarily because I thin k he has the stamina (it's still an open question), but because I think he has so much class that stamina may not necessarily become an issue (he is a 'Kauto' type in that regard, imo).

I too will stand-up and be counted after the fact, should that assumption prove to be inaccurate.
 
EC1 said:
i'll give you a guarantee Tanlic..if either CC or Vautour win the GC i'll never post sectionals for NH racing again..i'm that convinced re the finishing efforts that i posted 2 pages back that the times show both will fall short.
i can't really put it on the line more strongly than that
Click to expand...

Fair play, that is taking a stance - good on you
 
Gold Cuppin

Kauto Star had stamina in abundance tho Grass, as well as speed & class. It's what made him such a freak. He won 2 Tingle Creeks, 2 Gold Cups, 5 King Georges & 4 Betfair Chases.

In some of those races like the Betfair win against Imperial Commander on atrocious ground he had to call on every last bit of stamina in his reserve to pull it out of the bag. It always stood him in good stead tackling that hill too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
Absolutely fair enough position to adopt, EC1.

In was reading one of your posts on another thread earlier, and you clearly have a great deal of faith in your research - which is no bad thing. I am confident that Vautour will stay the trip in the Gold Cup - not necessarily because I thin k he has the stamina (it's still an open question), but because I think he has so much class that stamina may not necessarily become an issue (he is a 'Kauto' type in that regard, imo).

I too will stand-up and be counted after the fact, should that assumption prove to be inaccurate.
Click to expand...

i doubt anyone could crticise your stance no matter what the result..you have got 16/1..thats pretty smart imo looking at his price today..and what it will be on the day.

You mention Kauto there..i've got some interesting comparisons re his KG's and CC's that do indicate he may not be able to do that:)..but again thats going back to being ruled by figures..which i am obvioulsy. I have made a smaller stand re sectionals before..when TNO got beat at Kempton by MTOY..i said then he wouldn't have the speed to win CH's..at that time a very large % of opinion was that he was the next coming re the CH. This one is a bit bigger call than that though. Time will tell.
 
Last edited:
One question re your most recent analysis, EC1. I bring this up not to prove a point or be a smart-arse, but to understand how you account for it.

Smad Place was around 4L behind Vautour turning into the straight, about 6L behind jumping two out, about a dozen lengths behind at the last, and is ultimately beaten 16L.

If the front two were finishing so slowly, how come both Vautour and Cue Card kept putting distance between themselves and a thoroughly proven-stayer like Smad Place, all the way up the straight?

PS. I was with you all the way on TNO......but only had my eyes to tell me that. :)
 
Last edited:
its a fair point.. Smad Place seems better with more give than there was at Kempton..it was too speedy a test for him imo..and he didn't lead which seems key to him. I'm not convinced that flatter tracks against this level of oppo are his strength. He won at Kempton in November..but that was against 140+ hosses. If you go through his form..he loves soft ground and stiffer tests than even kempton is. He has been beaten at Aintree 3 times...again a flatter track.

Look at him on Saturday..as soon as he got to the hill he left Many Clouds in the weeds. His wins to me suggest a proper test at this level...Newbury Cheltenham Exter Ascot are all courses he has done well with decent dig in ground..Newbury is a harder test than Kempton even though deemed flat..that long straight there is very tough..i always think of Newbury as a real grinders course.

it could just be he didn't lead..just didn't like not being out alone in front
 
Last edited:
All good stuff, and I don't dispute your thesis re Smad's ideal conditions.

However............ :D

......your assessment of Smad Place does require you to move away from a strict 'numbers' view of his performance, and look at it a little more subjectively, because - clearly - based on his finishing-times alone relative to CC and Vautour, you would have to have him down as a non-stayer too (which is obviously not the case).

Why, then, do you not extend the same kind of latitude to Vautour or Cue Card, and view their performances with the same level of subjectivity. Why the rush to write-off their chances based solely on the finishing times? Especially when both (like Smad) are likely to be much better horses at Cheltenham, than they are Kempton?
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
All good stuff, and I don't dispute your thesis re Smad's idela conditions.

However............ :D

......your assessment of Smad Place does require you to move away from a strict 'numbers' view of his performance, and look at it a little more subjectively, because - clearly - based on his finishing-times alone relative to CC and Vautour, you would have to have him down as a non-stayer too (which is obviously not the case).

Why, then, do you not extend the same kind of latitude to Vautour or Cue Card, and view their performances with the same level of subjectivity. Why the rush to write-off their chances based solely on the finishing times? Especially when both (like Smad) are likely to be much better horses at Cheltenham, than they are Kempton?
Click to expand...

because Smad Place eventually wasn't a contender in the KG..for whatever reasons he didn't show his best form. Cue Card + Vautour have won come 2nd the race and as such i view them as showing their best. You would have to take the view that they haven't run to their best and still beat everything else...i doubt anyone would suggest either of them were not at their best here would they?

This is why i don't really care about horses that finish well back and franking form at this level..there is no way that anyone knows exactly why horses run below their best and finished out the money in any race. But unless we think that winners of big races have got them by default we have to judge that Vautour and CC had no more to give..they show that by actually winning the race and running very close 2nd and both were fully extended.

If you take the view that every horse in the KG ran below par..then the race is a pile of pooh and you can take nothing from it..i don't think every horse ran below par in it. You then have to ask..is every race below par because some horses didn't perform fully to their best in them.
 
Last edited:
also...if we follow the line that every horse ran below form in the KG..then its quite a coincidence..that the best 3 in it..were all in contention at the end before Don fell
 
Last edited:
Understood.

The difference between our opposing views is clearer now. You think the KG run was as good as Vautour is, whereas I fully expect him to surpass that level, when he is returned to left-handed Cheltenham. And he can certainly still improve for experience, what with being a second-season-chaser with only a half-dozen chase starts under his belt. Every season he has raced, Vautour been trained to peak at the Festival; where he has won his two Championship races effectively uncontested, and I'm convinced he can progress to a level that puts him out-of-reach of the others.

He will have the race won long before his stamina even comes into question, imo.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
Understood.

He will have the race won long before his stamina even comes into question, imo.
Click to expand...

I take your point that Chelt, left handed will improve him

The other part seems a tad optimistic - Coneygree last year had plenty of class but didn't have the race won from well out - There will also be a better class of horse staying on compared to Apache and VL as was in last years Ryanair
 
Grasshopper said:
Understood.

The difference between our opposing views is clearer now. You think the KG run was as good as Vautour is, whereas I fully expect him to surpass that level, when he is returned to left-handed Cheltenham. And he can certainly still improve for experience, what with being a second-season-chaser with only a half-dozen chase starts under his belt. Every season he has raced, Vautour been trained to peak at the Festival; where he has won his two Championship races effectively uncontested, and I expect fully expect him to progress to a level that puts him out-of-reach of the others.

He will have the race won long before his stamina even comes into question, imo.
Click to expand...

I would expect a KG level horse to run a lot faster later than either CC or Vautour..yes..and by quite a bit. Your premise being.. Vautour..if fully fit in the KG would have beaten CC by quite a few lengths. The finishing effort there would suggest Vautour was some way below peak if your theory is correct.

I'm not fully convinced by that ....because i think in a race like the KG if a horse isn't close to 100% fit he would finish well beaten. If a horse isn't 100% he can get beat in lesser contested races by a few lengths..we have seen this with Faugheen FTO..and with Vautour himself at Ascot..where V wasn't fully fit and ran a fair way below form...but still won..but that wasn't a KG where any lack of fitness will tell a long way out ..not just knock a bit off the end.

I think if you turn up at a race like a KG and you aren't on your A game i think you would get beaten up quite badly because I'll wager most of that field was 100% ready or they wouldn't run. Other factors will probably wipe out half the field from winning,,but fitness wouldn't be one of those reasons imo. A horse not close to 100% imo would be beat some way from home.

I can see where you are coming from..but i think any improvement..if there is any.. will be a lot less than you are thinking becausee V must have been near full firness to be competitive in a finish in a hotly contested race like the KG...especially one that most people thought was the best one we had seen for some years.
 
Last edited:
Not quite...my premise is more that Vautour would beat CC at Cheltenham - it's less about fitness (though that's part of it), and more about going left-handed on that track.

Freely admit that I am making a leap of faith. Is it based on sound reasoning? I believe so - but then again, I would say that. I don't see the tiring-horse that everyone describes at Kempton, and I've watched the race at least 25 times. But maybe I'm the one that isn't seeing the bleedin' obvious? I look at the sublime performances in his two Festival starts, and figure that he can find more at Cheltenham than he did at Kempton. But maybe that is bogus, and the KG did show him as good as he is?

I won't find out for sure until the day, but you pays your money and you takes your chance. :cool:
 
Last edited:
granger said:
I take your point that Chelt, left handed will improve him

The other part seems a tad optimistic - Coneygree last year had plenty of class but didn't have the race won from well out - There will also be a better class of horse staying on compared to Apache and VL as was in last years Ryanair
Click to expand...

Vautour was rated 1lb ahead of Coneygree by Timeform last season, so he already had the class to go close in a Gold Cup (stamina considerations notwithstanding), and I think he has undoubtedly improved on his JLT performance in the King George......and - critically - I have no reason to believe that is progression is at an end.

I am more than happy to give him the benefit of doubt on stamina, because on every other measure I take, he looks all over good enough to win.
 
Vautour will clearly improve for going back to Cheltenham and the better ground if he gets it. He'll also improve fitness wise. Also age on his side.
That said this horse oozes class and speed. You only have to look turning in in the KG he had them cooked while Ruby was smoking his cigar as he rode him like he would stay. Some were critical he went to soon as he would have won had he held on to him. Though you could argue he would still have won had he jumped the last.
He has though gone from looking hosed up to getting beaten. Even with all the positives I have mentioned I struggle to see him getting the trip (at least well enough) to beat a few who will get the trip.
His optimum trip will be short of 3m. He does though have the speed to put it up to UDS if dropping back to 2m. The Ryanair if he ran in would produce a jaw dropping performance of that I'm in no doubt.

As for Smad Place, On better ground I struggle to see him being able to dominate the class of animal he will be up against.
 
Last edited:
I'd like someone who knows a bit about training on here..owners or people who have worked in yards..to try and guage what happens to a horse in G1 race if not fully fit

i know bugger all about training a horse..but i would have thought that not being 100% or very close to it would be a serious negative to performance in a top class Grade 1 race like the KG..you would get buried surely no matter what your rating was..forget summat like Frankel [the hoss not poster]:) obviously

anyone know?
 
Last edited:
You agree then and are resigned to defeat :ninja:

You can still jump ship. There is still a place on the Djak - a - train :lol:
 
EC1 said:
I'd like someone who knows a bit about training on here..owners or people who have worked in yards..to try and guage what happens to a horse in G1 race if not fully fit

i know bugger all about training a horse..but i would have thought that not being 100% or very close to it would be a serious negative to performance in a top class Grade 1 race like the KG..you would get buried surely no matter what your rating was..forget summat like Frankel [the hoss not poster]:) obviously

anyone know?
Click to expand...

Most horses are not at 100% for most races. You will have a target and you train the horse for that target. So if the ultimate was the KG and you train the horse to 100% you are risking that you wont be able to get him that fit again. Its very difficult to get a NH horse upto 100%...then rest 3 or 4 weeks then back to 100% again. It takes a lot out of them and can lead to them being open to bugs, and injury. Mullins is lucky that the majority of his horses can still win when carrying plenty condition.
 
EC, I have worked in yards, at a very lowly level I must add, and I agree with you that a horse would have to be very near peak fitness to run a close second in a race such as the King George.
 
Back
Top