2016 Gold Cuppin

Accuweather are currently giving 50mm of rain until Feb 16 , then a more or less dry fortnight before upwards of 80mm the first two weeks of March.

Dry for the first two days of Festival with 6mm Thursday and a little rain Gold Cup Day

No need for watering at that rate !

I can see Ruby and Bryan Cooper leaving it very very late before deciding what they ride.
 
Grasshopper said:
The King George run tells you he can sustain a gallop longer than this lot already - it's whether he can sustain it for longer than he has done to date. If he can, then his turn-of-foot will very much come into play.
There's basically two options for Walsh.

One, he rides Vautour like a non-stayer, and tries to steady the pace from the front. Or two, he rides him like a non-stayer and buries him in the pack. Either way, I think he rides him like a non-stayer.

He probably won't make his decision on how to ride the race, until he looks around himself after the first. If he is in front, he will try and set the pace to suit his horse. If he is in behind, I think he will be quite happy to gallop away in mid-division. What I don't expect to happen, is for Vautour to pull Walsh into a protracted battle for the lead, and compromise his chance of getting home. He is exuberant, rather than head-strong, and I don't think being dropped-in will be any kind of problem or handicap.
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In a King George.... You have to think he wouldn't want to try and sustain the same level of gallop in the GC...otherwise he slows down quicker....OR do the others end up further behind? Very tricky call for PT on Vautour.
 
EC1 said:
youi think he's slow because you believe the RP standrard times in Ireland..that anyone can see are totally cockeyed

read the posts that are trying to help you through this topspeed sludge
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I don't agree with the excuses put up for Don Poli I think he's a boat in comparison to the top 3

Do me a favour and run these two races from 4 out when each of the two winners take off............not just you any Don Poli fan who thinks he's fast.

Rsa 2014 Rsa 2105

Consider this the ground was slightly faster in 2015 than it was in 2014.

Consider this they crawled round in 2015 and you would think they would have much more in reserve over the last 4 fences than they would have had in 2014.

From 4 out to the line both winners were flat out....I think someone said Don Poli flew up the hill a page back.

O'Faolains Boy covered the distance about 4 to 5 lengths faster than Don Poli

He runs like that in the Gold Cup he'll finish a fence behind
 
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EC1 said:
i'd start reading posts Tanlic..i'm not spending more time explaining..look back to my reply earlier..its like banging head again a wall man..come on..read posts or i'm wasting my time responding..i got guinness to drink lad:)..come on
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I asked you to Show me one bit of form that says he's a player against the likes of DC or Vautour and because you can't you reply with a cop out...best you go drink some guinness :p
 
Digger said:
You know my view. I have no doubt Vautour can win, for me its all about if he can keep the gallop up long enough before they catch up. I can't see him sitting in the middle of the pack as his kick of pace will have gone at the end.
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This would be suicide.
 
Tanlic said:
Consider this the ground was slightly faster in 2015 than it was in 2014.
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you got it arse uppards to be fair..the ground on the chase course was 14 slow in 2015..and 12 fast in 2014..so there is 26 lengths difference in ground..in favour of ofailins boy

side by side comparisons on different ground like that tell you nothing about the ability of one horse over another

i don't think one person has suggested DP is "fast"..its you who is using terms like that re slow

he isn't slow..but you seem to make your decisions on dodgy side by sides on different ground and basing your main judgement around RP standard times in Ireland..that are so far out its hard to believe they bother.

i'll leave you with it Tanlic..one thing i've learned in this game..when a punter ,makes their mind up about something..even if you showed him future races..he'd still never change his mind

just keep thinking he is slow..its your opinion,..not one i share though
 
Tanlic said:
I asked you to Show me one bit of form that says he's a player against the likes of DC or Vautour and because you can't you reply with a cop out...best you go drink some guinness :p
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right..i'm annoyed now..i've spent good time today with proper analysis that you have deemed to ignore..your grasp of race times is beyond any logic..i'm not going over stuff twice..i'm out
 
Grasshopper said:
Why?

It's perfectly normal to hold-up a horse if you think it has questionable stamina.
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Unless I read that wrong it sounded like digger said to let him bowl along and hope he lasts home.

A crawl is what he wants. Though unlikely he'll get it.
 
I get that, and acknowledge you can have a problem if you don't make best use of your horse.

As I said, in my view Vautour is enthusiastic rather than a head-strong puller who must front-run, and I reckon he can be dropped-in no bother, without him fighting for his head.
 
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There's a good chance that Vautour, Cue Card, Don Cossack, and Road To Riches will all want to get past Smad Place and to the front coming down the hill. For all of them it's probably their best chance of winning, and will go at it with pretty much the same tactics. With Smad Place setting all the earlier the fractions and possibly being tough to pass, the scenario of four of them wanting the lead by the time they come round the bottom bend would make it absolutely brutal.

I'm really starting to give credence to what EC is saying here, and the race could very well be won by a thorough stayer picking up the pieces. He's a horse I've never really taken to, but Don Poli is the obvious one and fits the mould perfectly if Cooper or whoever rides have nerves of steel. For what it's worth I reckon Davy Russell would be the perfect partner. I'm not sure Cooper would have the balls to lay back and let it unfold.
 
Well as you may have guess I think EC is wrong unless it's run in a bog.

Smad Place has never been regarded as a serious Gold Cup contender until now and many would say he still isn't good enough.

He did beat First Lieutenant by 12 1/2 lengths giving him 8lbs while Don Poli could only beat him by 1 1/2 lengths of levels
but like all the other form suggesting DP can't win we must ignore that and keep others happy.3

Personally I agree Smad Place isn't good enough and he will set the race up for something else.

The obvious place to take him on as Maruco suggestd is at the top of the hill and the ones most likely to do are Vautour Cue Card and Don Cossack

When they go it will be fast and furious and the dour stayers like Smad Place and Don Poli who is slow to repsond will be unable to go with them initially.

The problem is for the dour stayer Don Poli is he needs not one horse to stop in front of him but all three or possibly 4.

That simply will not happen one of that top 3 will be un-catchable and most likely it will be Vautour

I can imagine Don Cossack cutting him back but I reckon Djakadam is more likely to be cutting them down than Don Poli.

I can't see either of them catching the big 2 I think they are head and shoulders above the rest tbh

I rate their chances as such

DH. Vautour
DH. Don Cossack

3. Djakadam

4. Don Poli

d. Cue Card










.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm not sure Cooper will have too much choice in the matter.
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He has got the say so I read a couple of days ago.

Actually I think the weather Gods have the say. If it's a bog he'll ride Don Poli and if its good Ground he'll ride Don Cossack.

You watch the betting if it looks like being a dry March him riding Don Cossack will be shorter than Faugheen winning the Champion Hurdle.
 
My point about Cooper and DP was more about where he will race i.e. he wont be able to get to the front, so will have no option but to "lay back".

A Dead-Heat??

You utter mincer! :lol:
 
I can't make up my mind between them mate................I keep seeing Vautour doing a Kauto at the top of the hill like he did in the Supreme but 3m2f I ask...will he stop.

Really for him Kempton would take as much getting as Cheltenham would as the undulations suit his type of racing more.........he can fly that hill way faster than any of them and that's a huge advatage to have.

I will make up my mind nearer the time but it will be one or the other or both maybe. :blink:
 
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