2016 Gold Cuppin

So its all about the pace of the race. Ruby is a master of that. He will have to decide if he stays up with the front runners (which surely has to be Smad Place as its the only way the horse can place) Now if he keeps up with that pace will he have enough in the tank the last 3f to win the race? Cue Card has the same issue based on the KG running. They injected the pace and burned off the rest in that field but can they do that in the Gold Cup. I don't think Cue Card will last home. Djack, both the Dons will... But will Ruby be able to keep enough within V to keep going up that hill to the line. I'll be honest if Ruby was on Djack i'd have him as clear fav....but assuming he goes for V...then any bugger could win this! I'm going Vautour - Djak forecast!!
 
There seems a general notion that Smad Place will set a strong pace, but he's yet to do it on normal GC ground or against the calibre of horse he'll likely meet there.
Imho, he'll struggle to get away from them on anything but proper deep ground, and the assumption that he'll burn the finish out of all but the strongest stayers could prove well wide of what really occurs on the day.
 
Last edited:
Someone may know this on here. Edgt if anyone I'd say

Elliott is the youngest trainer to train a national winner, if he were to win the GC would he be the youngest to do that too?
 
TheBear said:
I think PFN was younger when See More Business won.
Click to expand...

Yeah, just checked it, Nicholls was 36 and Elliott is 38 now. My knowledge isn't good enough to go back much further but no-one else immediately comes to mind.

As an aside just type Paul Nicholls into Google and see what picture it shows next to his Wikipedia entry. He wishes!
 
reet hard said:
There seems a general notion that Smad Place will set a strong pace, but he's yet to do it on normal GC ground or against the calibre of horse he'll likely meet there.
Imho, he'll struggle to get away from them on anything but proper deep ground, and the assumption that he'll burn the finish out of all but the strongest stayers could prove well wide of what really occurs on the day.
Click to expand...

I think its the only way they can run him....he's like old Swing Bill..hates getting his pretty white coat dirty. But yeh he simply may not be fast enough to force it.
 
Vincent O'Brien was born in 1917 and had not yet reached his 31st birthday when Cottage Rake won his first Gold Cup in 1948.

But Basiil Briscoe was born in 1903 and had the first of his five Gold Cup wins with Golden Miller in 1932.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
My point about Cooper and DP was more about where he will race i.e. he wont be able to get to the front, so will have no option but to "lay back".

A Dead-Heat??

You utter mincer! :lol:
Click to expand...

I'd imagine Don Poli will race midfield as he doesn't seem to have the pace to make all and that will be his downfall. Smad Place is now the one who they expect to cut out the running but he's not fast enough imo to get the speedsters in trouble but when they kick at the top of the hill Don Poli will come under pressure like he did in the RCA only this time he's not got mules in front of him and will struggle form there on in IMO.

I couldn't believe this when I read it : Many Clouds (168) won by four lengths in the end, in spite of a slipped saddle and a game, bold-jumping performance from the runner-up. Even though he was in receipt of 5 lb, Don Poli did enough to earn a rating of 171p

Spock would rise from the dead reading tat illogical crap
 
Grasshopper said:
My point about Cooper and DP was more about where he will race i.e. he wont be able to get to the front, so will have no option but to "lay back".

A Dead-Heat??

You utter mincer! :lol:
Click to expand...

I'd imagine Don Poli will race midfield as he doesn't seem to have the pace to make all and that will be his downfall. Smad Place is now the one who they expect to cut out the running but he's not fast enough imo to get the speedsters in trouble but when they kick at the top of the hill Don Poli will come under pressure like he did in the RCA only this time he's not got mules in front of him and will struggle form there on in IMO.

I couldn't believe this when I read it : Many Clouds (168) won by four lengths in the end, in spite of a slipped saddle and a game, bold-jumping performance from the runner-up. Even though he was in receipt of 5 lb, Don Poli did enough to earn a rating of 171p

Spock would rise from the grave reading that illogical crap
 
Last edited:
reet hard said:
There seems a general notion that Smad Place will set a strong pace, but he's yet to do it on normal GC ground or against the calibre of horse he'll likely meet there.
Imho, he'll struggle to get away from them on anything but proper deep ground, and the assumption that he'll burn the finish out of all but the strongest stayers could prove well wide of what really occurs on the day.
Click to expand...

The most stamina sapping GC recently..was Denman's..the slowest % finish this century..going into that race Neptune Collonges was only rated 161..but managed to lead them at a proper gallop...SP is rated 168 so should have has no issues with leading the field

For example..a 70 rated flat horse can lead in a G3 field no problem...long enough to make sure there is a honest pace ....and thats against horses rated 40lb higher..so how can a 168 hoss not lead horses a just a few lbs higher for a good part of the race?

Lets say he tries to lead but something takes him on for a circuit..has to go faster than him to lead him..what pace do you think that would be?..it will be one that tows the field along to ensure the winner will need to stay very well looks the answer

So even if another leads him..it will be setting a strong pace do so.

He set a strong enough pace to get Djakadam out of his comfort zone the other day.

I just don't see how a 168 horse can't lead a GC field at a decent pace..and SP don't want a crawl..he stays all day...so any pace involvement he has will be to test those behind..its not in his interest to be involved in a slow race...he ain't going to want no jog and sprint
 
Last edited:
EC1, I agree that Smad is good enough to take them along at a clip. Assuming he does so, what pace scenario do you envisage playing out?

Let's assume we have genuine G-S ground:

Do you think Smad is likely to go the kind of pace that will see a slow finishing %age prevail - and would this favour horses that travel well held-up (e.g. Cue Card, Djakadam), as well as it would the thorough stayers (Don Poli)
Do you think he will try to go an even pace - and would this be more-or-less neutral in terms of its impact on each horse?
Or do you think he will try to go along at a slightly steadier gallop (if Ryanair was a consideration, they might think he retains some pace) - and would this play into the hands of those who have still to prove they stay the trip (e.g. Vautour, Cue Card)
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
EC1, I agree that Smad is good enough to take them along at a clip. Assuming he does so, what pace scenario do you envisage playing out?

Let's assume we have genuine G-S ground:

Do you think Smad is likely to go the kind of pace that will see a slow finishing %age prevail - and would this favour horses that travel well held-up (e.g. Cue Card, Djakadam), as well as it would the thorough stayers (Don Poli)
Do you think he will try to go an even pace - and would this be more-or-less neutral in terms of its impact on each horse?
Or do you think he will try to go along at a slightly steadier gallop (if Ryanair was a consideration, they might think he retains some pace) - and would this play into the hands of those who have still to prove they stay the trip (e.g. Vautour, Cue Card)
Click to expand...

A.
 
Gold Cuppin

Just looking through the field there to see other pace angles. If Road to Riches wins tomorrow he has to go to the Gold Cup hasn't he? They have Valseur Lido & possibly Sir Des Champs for the Ryanair.

Surely you couldn't deny an Irish Gold Cup winner & 3rd in last years gold cup another crack at it. Meade really seems to be standing firm on this too having been messed around once or twice before.

If that's the case then that adds a whole new pace dimension to that race as he practically went toe to toe with Coneygree last year. I agree that Smad Place will be able to bring them along perfectly fine at a good clip but in Road To Riches, gigginstown have a G1 horse with every chance of winning it from the front as well as potentially setting it up for the two Dons in behind who'd appreciate good test of stamina.

Remember last year RTR ran a huge race on ground softer than ideal off the back of a very long season (Galway Plate). This year he'll be very lightly raced should he go there & I think if he wins tomorrow they'll have to send him.

Eddie O'Leary quoted before tomorrows GC;

"Road To Riches has been a super horse for us and he'd have won the Gold Cup if it was run on Thursday last year.

"Unfortunately rain got into the ground and played to the strengths of Coneygree and Djakadam, whereas we'd have preferred much better ground"

They'll have to go again, wont they?



Another angle is On His Own, he also went with them last year to 2 out at a relentless gallop and that was after just been touched off to Lord Windemere the year before so he obviously likes the course. He proved his well being in the Lexus this year having gone to the last travelling powerfully. If he took his place you could potentially have 3 front runners who'd all be anxious to get on with it and who have proved their more than capable of getting to the last off a strong gallop whilst setting strong fractions.

That has to be music to the ears of those following dower stayers like the 2 Dons or Djackadam.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Agree, Frankel.........Djak was lobbing away, and made a mistake - it happens.

To be fair, Smad didn't even get Many Clouds out of his comfort-zone, when it came to pace last weekend......which makes me wonder just how strong it was?

EC1, do your numbers suggest the Cotswold Chase was run at a strong pace?
 
Grasshopper said:
Agree, Frankel.........Djak was lobbing away, and made a mistake - it happens.

To be fair, Smad didn't even get Many Clouds out of his comfort-zone, when it came to pace last weekend......which makes me wonder just how strong it was?

EC1, do your numbers suggest the Cotswold Chase was run at a strong pace?
Click to expand...

the cotswold was a solid pace ..fin% 99.7..against a par of about 102%....SP recorded a 165 overall speed figure as well..a proper solid race.

In the GC..there are a number of horses that like to be near the pace..some won't run obviously

RTR
Roi De Me
Seeyouatmidnight
Smad Place
Wonded Warrior

its going be a decent pace even without some of those..predicting if would suit middle or deep closers..is too hard to really. All you can say is..it will be more than likely be a Coneygree/Bobs Worth effort than a 2007 KS or War Of attrition race.
 
Last edited:
He has to make it a stamina test as it's his only chance of winning. Vautour will definitely look the winner at the top of the hill but fully expect one or both of the Don's to stay on past him up the hill, just can't make my mind up which at the moment.
 
Gold Cuppin

TheBear said:
He has to make it a stamina test as it's his only chance of winning. Vautour will definitely look the winner at the top of the hill but fully expect one or both of the Don's to stay on past him up the hill, just can't make my mind up which at the moment.
Click to expand...

The one who handles the course :D


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
as a reference to past GC re pace...these are finishing % of last few

2015100.1Coneygree
2014104.6Lord Windermere
2013100.4Bobs Worth
2012106.6Synchronised
2011104.5Long Run
2010103.9Imperial Commander
2009105.0Kauto Star
200897.6Denman
2007107.7Kauto Star
2006107.9War Of Attrition
200499.8Best Mate
2003104.4Best Mate
2002104.0Best Mate

<tbody>
</tbody>

throwing out the obvious fast finishes the average finishing effort for an efficient race is about a 102%..a lower % than that is a stronger pace race..a higher % is a weaker pace race

I'd be wagering it will be less than 102% this year..even if only RTR and SP are only "pace" hosses left out of that list
 
Last edited:
Ok....so an even pace....on par......whatever you want to call it...can be expected, given Good-to-Soft ground.

Who benefits from this, in your view?
 
EC1 said:
as a reference to past GC re pace...these are finishing % of last few

2015100.1Coneygree
2014104.6Lord Windermere
2013100.4Bobs Worth
2012106.6Synchronised
2011104.5Long Run
2010103.9Imperial Commander
2009105.0Kauto Star
200897.6Denman
2007107.7Kauto Star
2006107.9War Of Attrition
200499.8Best Mate
2003104.4Best Mate
2002104.0Best Mate

<tbody>
</tbody>

throwing out the obvious fast finishes the average finishing effort for an efficient race is about a 102%..a lower % than that is a stronger pace race..a higher % is a weaker pace race

I'd be wagering it will be less than 102% this year
Click to expand...

EC1, does this suggest that the Gold Cup, adjusted for ground, is more generally run at less of a pace than expected?
 
Back
Top