2016 Gold Cuppin

well the average of all of those is 104%..so in general an average GC is only run 2% slower than par .which suggests its a pretty good test generally. Its not like we getting really fast finishes here suggesting a jog and print..if some were 110+ you would be thinking they were pretty slowly run efforts

I'd say that 2 of those KS and WOA were races that the questionable stayer could take..and both those horses did show really best form at shorter.

Generally its a pretty good test..it may even be that ideal pace is more near 103%..somewhere between 102/103 ..i'd like to see a lot more data really but we have what we have so you do have to use some judgement with NH finishing %'s..you can nail par to nearest half % with more data.
 
Kauto Abu said:
The one who handles the course :D


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It's harsh to say DC doesn't handle the track. He fell in the RSA and had a torrid journey round in the Ryanair.

My issue with him is his jumping. It's likely that he'll make a momentum stopping error somewhere along the way and if it's at a crucial stage he'll never recover.

That Synchronised figure stands out as one I wouldn't have expected EC. Was that just a very bad GC?
 
Grasshopper said:
Ok....so an even pace....on par......whatever you want to call it...can be expected, given Good-to-Soft ground.

Who benefits from this, in your view?
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Well your KS + WOA types suited an easier time early on..i don't think this year will be like that...so the stamina horses have to be suited imo.

You asking a very hard question...but its fair to say..the GC generally is no easy time if you struggling for stamina..its 3m2.5f phill finish...if you are a short runner..you have to hope for an easy time early or mid race. I don't see that happening..particularly mid race. Even if SP doesn't lead very early..if he hits lead mid race..he just keeps going at stong pace.

When you watched the hennessey..did you think SP would win with the pace he were going?..i know i didn't..thought he were a cert to drop in a hole...his mid race pace is very harsh to those around him
 
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TheBear said:
It's harsh to say DC doesn't handle the track. He fell in the RSA and had a torrid journey round in the Ryanair.

My issue with him is his jumping. It's likely that he'll make a momentum stopping error somewhere along the way and if it's at a crucial stage he'll never recover.

That Synchronised figure stands out as one I wouldn't have expected EC. Was that just a very bad GC?
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I also remember Long Run finishing third twice round Cheltenham before he won a GC, so, like you, Bear, I wouldn't assume previously-placed horses don't handle the course.

Synchronised's GC was run in ground like last year's if I recall correctly ie, the rain got into the ground on the Friday and slowed everything down. Synchronised would surely never have won a GC otherwise?
 
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EC1 said:
the figures only describe the pace..not ability of winners Bear
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I know but Synchronised was always seen as a dour stayer and the race seemed to suggest he just outlasted them. That figure would say to me that they went slowly early on and it turned into a bit of a sprint, the exact opposite of what Synchronised would want.
 
Gold Cuppin

TheBear said:
It's harsh to say DC doesn't handle the track. He fell in the RSA and had a torrid journey round in the Ryanair.

My issue with him is his jumping. It's likely that he'll make a momentum stopping error somewhere along the way and if it's at a crucial stage he'll never recover.
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That's what I mean Bear. Don't know if you ever saw him in the flesh but he's a massive horse, a huge frame and i think an undulating NH courses don't do him any favours. I saw him in Thurles again recently and similar to Cheltenham he doesn't seem entirely home on them. He got away with it of course in Thurles as you'd expect but his jumping has let him down more times that not in the big races.

If you check back through those Cheltenham runs you'l see 'pecked on landing' beside his name quite a lot. His jumping, even on flat courses, tends to go when pressure comes, and i think you're right so I couldn't have him. I don't think he took a 'tired' fall in the KG, he just couldn't find a leg jumping at such speed. Joncol was a similar build of a horse & Paul Nolan once said he'd be kept away from Cheltenham for that very reason.

In that Ryanair chase he got totally outpaced 3 out too before starting to stay on strongly. A good jump at the last might have made a difference but that's been the thorn in his side.

Don Poli on the other hand is so lazy his jumping is economical & he only does what he has to. He just about clears every fence but it's one of his strong points.



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Kauto Abu said:
In that Ryanair chase he got totally outpaced 3 out too before starting to stay on strongly. A good jump at the last might have made a difference but that's been the thorn in his side.

Don Poli on the other hand is so lazy his jumping is economical & he only does what he has to. He just about clears every fence but it's one of his strong points.
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Check that Ryanair replay again. He didn't get outpaced, he made a terrible error at the top of the hill. Jumping into the back of another horse at the 2nd last didn't help either.

You're observation about DP's jumping is an important one. Best Mate was the absolute master of getting from A to B in the most economical fashion and it never did him any harm.
 
TheBear said:
I know but Synchronised was always seen as a dour stayer and the race seemed to suggest he just outlasted them. That figure would say to me that they went slowly early on and it turned into a bit of a sprint, the exact opposite of what Synchronised would want.
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yes..i see what you mean.

When he won the lexus..he also put in a faster than par finish that day..over 3 miles..so the idea that he was just a dour stayer only was really blown apart in that race. In his lexus his early pace up to fence 7 was 10 lengths slower than even pace..and he finished in 102% to take that race where par is probably about 100%. So in both races he showed he didn't need a strong pace or massive test of stamina that his earlier career suggested...he was really a very talented horse to do what he did at very long trips and shorter
 
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Grasshopper said:
Ok....so an even pace....on par......whatever you want to call it...can be expected, given Good-to-Soft ground.

Who benefits from this, in your view?
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Its worth bearing this mind with Vautour...Kauto Star..even though deemed to not really want a dour GC..showed far more stamina and finishing effort in winning his KG's than CC or V have...so he was a better stayer than both of those horses at 3 mile kempton. That puts in perspective that for V or CC to win a GC they would want an easier time in it early and mid..than the far greater KG stayer that KS was
 
EC1 said:
yes..i see what you mean.

When he won the lexus..he also put in a faster than par finish that day..over 3 miles..so the idea that he was just a dour stayer only was really blown apart in that race. In his lexus his early pace up to fence 7 was 10 lengths slower than even pace..and he finished in 102% to take that race where par is probably about 100%. So in both races he showed he didn't need a strong pace or massive test of stamina that his earlier career suggested...he was really a very talented horse to do what he did at very long trips and shorter
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Interesting. I suppose if you've got a horse that's only got a couple of gears he's initially going to get taken off his feet when they quicken off a slow pace but they come back to him eventually.
 
TheBear said:
Check that Ryanair replay again. He didn't get outpaced, he made a terrible error at the top of the hill. Jumping into the back of another horse at the 2nd last didn't help either.

You're observation about DP's jumping is an important one. Best Mate was the absolute master of getting from A to B in the most economical fashion and it never did him any harm.
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Ya I checked it again. He pecked very badly 5 out and lost 3 places but was back going well again 'til 3 out. From what I can see he certainly got outpaced from 3 out before going for that gap whilst staying on which put an end to any chance he had. Uxizandre, Ma Filleule & Hidden Cyclone all travelled far better at that point where cooper had to drive DC on.

Looking at comments section on ATR
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it would seem they concur on that too.


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We have talked about whether SP can set a decent pace. But looking at the past Lexus Chases..the one who can run strongly early and still have petrol left..is Road To Riches...on top of keeping tabs on pace grueller Coneygree last year..its worth looking at his early pace in the Lexus.

When Road To Riches won the lexus he ran tough very early fractions ..this is his pace line for the lexus...

F1 - F4.......14 len faster than par
F4 - F7.......par
F7 - F10.....par
F10 - F14....5 len slower than par
F14 - F16.....3 len slower than par
F16 - fIN......par

This is a horse that can set fast early pace then keep banging out par sectionals...have a breather...and still finish..he could easily be the leader this year..and he just keeps going and can finish on top of it
 
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That's what I was saying earlier EC. He went toe to toe with Coneygree and even on softer than ideal was still bang there given a very fast gallop.

Bear in mind that was his 7th race of the season I think from Galway. If he wins well tomorrow they'll surely have to send him & he'll be a huge player.


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EC1 said:
Its worth bearing this mind with Vautour...Kauto Star..even though deemed to not really want a dour GC..showed far more stamina and finishing effort in winning his KG's than CC or V have...so he was a better stayer than both of those horses at 3 mile kempton. That puts in perspective that for V or CC to win a GC they would want an easier time in it early and mid..than the far greater KG stayer that KS was
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That possibly applies to Cue Card given he has had multiple cracks at 3m, however, I figured you might give Vautour the benefit of the doubt given it was his first attempt at the trip, rather than dismiss him as blithely as you do.

I'm only in this for the esoteric debate, now. My cash was committed at Xmas, and there is no going back (not that I'd want to anyway).
 
Grasshopper said:
That possibly applies to Cue Card given he has had multiple cracks at 3m, however, I figured you might give Vautour the benefit of the doubt given it was his first attempt at the trip, rather than dismiss him as blithely as you do.

I'm only in this for the esoteric debate, now. My cash was committed at Xmas, and there is no going back (not that I'd want to anyway).
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You seem to be taking any knock against V personally..any view i have is based on track evidence..and i clearly state why i think something is so..so its not really blithely dismissing

thats enough time on this bit..i'll let you guys chew the cud..lunchtime calls..nurse will be round in a bit
 
The argument for Vautour improving is reasonably strong I suppose. First run at the distance, better left handed, young, better at Cheltenham and this mythical 10-15kg's Ricci keeps bleating on about.
 
EC1 said:
You seem to be taking any knock against V personally..any view i have is based on track evidence..and i clearly state why i think something is so..so its not really blithely dismissing

thats enough time on this bit..i'll let you guys chew the cud..lunchtime calls..nurse will be round in a bit
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How am I taking it personally? Genuinely confused by this.

Not every post has to have a smiley, you know.
 
Grasshopper said:
To be fair, Smad didn't even get Many Clouds out of his comfort-zone, when it came to pace last weekend......which makes me wonder just how strong it was?
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Nor did he in the same race the previous season, and there's plenty quicker than Many Clouds in even an average Gold Cup.
 
One aspect I don't think has been mentioned, apologies if it has, is that Don Cossack stands 17 hands high and it was only last season he filled out completely and won his Aintree and Punchestown races where the RPR were the same I think but the Punchestown race was a quicker pace. Trainer thinks he's even stronger this YEAR and I'd have him as my selection at this stage.
 
My principal worry with DC, is that his jumping can go a bit to pot, when he comes under pressure (King George, Ryanair).

When he dominates in smaller fields, he isn't put under pressure, hence is jumping is more measured. But given the way he races, and the class of the opposition he faces in this Gold Cup, he has to come off the bridle sooner rather than later, and he could end-up making errors. I think he can get a little clumsy/unbalanced (jockey issue?) at his fences, when he is getting up to full pelt, and I can see it being a bit of a harum-scarum ride inside the last mile, for whoever takes the mount.

Maybe it's a combination of being unbalanced on an undulating track, that's been the issue with his jumping on his previous visits to Cheltenham?
 
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