2016 Gold Cuppin

Gold Cuppin

Firstly the Martin Pipe win is being used to demonstrate DP is not 'a slow old yak' as some would like to think, you brought it up. Clearly he must have some speed to win that & stick with them?

Secondly the RSA was a G1 over 3m which he won ultra comfortably at Cheltenham with tons in hand. He can't control what he beats in it & we all know he only does what he has to. He is capable of so much more.

And thirdly it's not the fact he was a head second in the King George that has me convinced he's a non stayer. If he was a head first or a couple of lengths first you'd have to argue similar. It's the sectionals from about 3 out, from about 2m5f in, he was slowing down so quickly over 3m on a flat track like Kempton the extra 2.5f to him would be like asking Ronnie O Sullivan to play snooker with a rope!! The race was run to test stamina as the sectionals will attest to. The Gold cup will also be run to test stamina.


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You are comparing apples and oranges though kauto sectionals on a flat speed track have no bearing on Cheltenham, not saying u are wrong but you're basis is flawed.

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I would be worrying big time after WPM's comment about Don Poli if I backed him

"I think he's fast enough to win a Gold Cup"

That reeks of a man who is trying to convince himself of the opposite of what he believes.

Don Poli is way too slow to be keeping in contention with the likes of Vautour and Cue Card when they go form home.

If we are to beat the best of those two we need something that has the class.speed and stamina to pull it off

Only Don Cossack comes close while Don Poli will be tailed off..........biggest lay of the meeting along with Annie Power
 
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edgt said:
no doubt Vautour will be a different specimen to the one seen all season come Gold Cup day; that needs to be kept in mind also.
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Exactly Ed and surly a fitter horse can run for longer at the same pace, fwiw the race will be over by the last fence and I will be retiring outside the members bar along with Mr Grass for a cuban cigar.

Ruby knows alright!
 
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Beef or Salmon said:
You are comparing apples and oranges though kauto sectionals on a flat speed track have no bearing on Cheltenham, not saying u are wrong but you're basis is flawed.

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No BOS but if you can't stay at Kempton what hope have you at HQ? Those sectionals are used to demonstrate this years renewal wasn't a patch in terms of other attritional renewals. But read back through the thread and you'll see EC has done some very interesting work on previous KG winners tackling the Cheltenham Gold cup, between sectionals & visually on split screen. Long Run on much heavier ground back in '10 uses more energy but still finishes ahead of where Vautour & CC do even tho they raced on much better ground this year. That & the Kauto star performances are the way you'd need to be winning the King George to hold Gold Cup aspirations. Their stamina was assured.

Even Silvinaco Conti finishing ahead in terms of sectionals & visuals in his King Georges couldn't cut the mustard at Cheltenham. The Kauto stars and Long Run wins are what you need to be aspiring to quell doubts about stamina.


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frontrunner said:
Exactly Ed and surly a fitter horse can run for longer at the same pace,
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Tell that to Florida Pearl, One Man, Silvinaco Conti etc!! All classy horses who had ACTUALLY won races over 3m but that 2.5 extra furlongs was beyond them.



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It's certainly not a case of a fitter Vautour running for longer at the same pace than he did in the KG>

They have already scrapped that idea and it won't be until 4 out Ruby will be putting Vautour in the race.

Paddy Brennan will be sitting back there along with Ruby and watching the race develop

Not many will be able to go with them. My hope is Don Cossack will but Don Poli? The way this rase is going to be run he wont be seem for dust.
 
Kauto Abu said:
Tell that to Florida Pearl, One Man, Silvinaco Conti etc!! All classy horses who had ACTUALLY won races over 3m but that 2.5 extra furlongs was beyond them.

Yes but Vautour isn't in the same league as them , he's in the premier division, along with your namesake.

Ruby knows alright



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It is simply wrong to extrapolate Kempton figures to Cheltenham. Cheltenham's undulations lend themselves to horses getting a breather in a way that is impossible at Kempton. They also upset the rhythm of some horses and mess up their jumping in a way that affects how they finish a race rather than it being a basic stamina issue on the hill. Course form over form at other tracks every time for me.
 
archie said:
It is simply wrong to extrapolate Kempton figures to Cheltenham. Cheltenham's undulations lend themselves to horses getting a breather in a way that is impossible at Kempton. They also upset the rhythm of some horses and mess up their jumping in a way that affects how they finish a race rather than it being a basic stamina issue on the hill. Course form over form at other tracks every time for me.
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not really..its just simply wrong to misinterpret what KA is saying is more like it

comparing a known benchmark staying performance at Kempton with another at the same tarck to see what level of stamina a horse actually has at that level is very relevant.

no one is comparing Kempton with Cheltenham at all

the point is if you display lesser stamina when at full stretch against known benchmarks on a flat track 3 miles..what chance have you of staying to a G1 level over 2.5m further..where you go up a steep hill twice

If SC or LR had outstayed you in a KG..would you be confident of your horse out staying them in a GC..i wouldn't i know that.

stamina is proven against known benchmarks over a set test..if you pass the kempton one..then all is well and good..if you fail it..i have strong doubts about a GC
 
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Tanlic said:
It's certainly not a case of a fitter Vautour running for longer at the same pace than he did in the KG>

They have already scrapped that idea and it won't be until 4 out Ruby will be putting Vautour in the race.

Paddy Brennan will be sitting back there along with Ruby and watching the race develop

Not many will be able to go with them. My hope is Don Cossack will but Don Poli? The way this rase is going to be run he wont be seem for dust.
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My thinking is that 2m6 or 7f in Vautour's stamina will just start to ebb away, as it did at Kempton. I just don't think he's a stayer. It's going to be run at a fast pace obviously with Smad Place ensuring that, it'll be run fast anyway, it's a Gold Cup!! By the time they get to the second last he'll be in bother.

There's absolutely nothing to point to the fact he gets 3m2.5f at Cheltenham.


As regards Don not seeing where they went!! If On his own was there at the business end in 14 & even more again last year off a relentless gallop I hold no fears for Don Poli getting left behind.


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I respect your opinion, EC, and your extensive efforts to place it in context. I just don't share that view, not least because for every hill you go up you've come down one.

For sure, no-one can be sure whether or not Vautour will stay and I've said that previously. I just think that the ticks and crosses against the main contenders edge it in his favour.
 
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i have no issue with you either sharing the view or not Archie..we all take whatever view we put value in...but it was never a comparison between Kempton and Cheltenham,,it was simply a benchmarking exercise confined to Kempton

regarding uphill and downhill..even with the downhill..the undulations of Cheltenham will still need more stamina than running level.....+ its 2.5f further

running downhill is no great relief for a race horse stamina wise..but going uphill ebbs it..and they do that twice..and the last time is when under full effort at the end of teh race..its a grueller at Cheltenham compared with Kempton..and Kempton is no walk in the park
 
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edgt said:
Nothing announced yet EC; I imagine Giggi doing the eeny meany bit R2R and Valseur lido re Ryanair Chase.
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Brian Cooper practically said as much yesterday at Elliotts when they asked about Mick O Leary's Ryanair chase hoodoo! Looks like two of them could even end up there.


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if he is in it..i could see him sitting behind Smad for first circuit then taking over if Smad cries enough..a sort of relay pace..if both run in it will be a relenting pace i reckon
 
Ya if he's there he'll be very handy too. I see Sausilito Sunrise looks like he's going to be supplemented for it too and I doubt he'll be held up in it!! There'll be a few there to ensure a pace.


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Wouldn't be banking on Smad Place setting a strong pace. Like the 2 Dons, he wouldn't have it in him, on normal GC ground.
 
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reet hard said:
Wouldn't be banking on Smad Place setting a strong pace. Like the 2 Dons, he wouldn't have it in him, on normal GC ground.
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when a horse has a run style..especially a front running type..it won't matter what the ground is..SP will be near the front unless they want another KG type run.....RTR will lead or press it even if SP doesn't lead
 
National talk for Silviniaco Conti is a smokescreen for the real stable fancy, Wonderful Charm, which might end up very well in after Saturday.

(Imvho, I should maybe add.)
 
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EC1 said:
when a horse has a run style..especially a front running type..it won't matter what the ground is..SP will be near the front unless they want another KG type run.....RTR will lead or press it even if SP doesn't lead
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Is RTR even going to run? He's fav for the Ryanair if you take out Vautour.

Everyone thinks Smad Place is going try to make all but I heard Alan King intends to do a Denman and Smad Place won't take it up until the last fence on the first circuit.

Smad Place was caught out when he was held up last year. He looked to be going really well until they suddenly stepped up a gear up front and instantly everything behind came under pressure with only Djackadam getting involved from off the pace.

He's improved a ton since then and if they do hang on to him in touch for a circuit his chance will improve big time in my book.

The problem is who will give him a lead if RTR goes for the Ryanair?

Will WPM even want a strong pace with Vautour is number 1?

Not even sure the Giggi mob would want them to go tearing off as that could put paid to Don Poli's chances of staying in touch.

I hope something sets an nice even pace but if not Smad Place and not RTR who?
 
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