2016 Gold Cuppin

Jambo said:
who are yer favourite 5 irish horses in training Clive? would you have a favourite irish trained all time list? Your favourite Mullins horses? Will he even get a winner this year?
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How many of Mullins runners have I commented on on this or any Cheltenham thread. Two you idiot. Out of the sixty runners

not in the habit of giving small minded paranoia the time of day. Best to leave them suffer on their own
 
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Taking it UDS wins then I would imagine there would be more chance of running 2 in the King george/Gold Cup than the QMCC as they are doing this time round
 
TheBear said:
Just read this about Cue Card from the Tizzard stable tour. It's incredibly difficult not to get carried away in his enthusiasm:-

He’s the horse of a lifetime and in absolutely brilliant form and at his very peak. Last year it was about this time when one day he couldn’t get up the gallop and his epiglottis had gone. It was like having a golf ball in the middle of his throat and he just couldn’t breathe. He’s come back looking a million dollars this year and from the first time we ran him he has just been very good. He used to tear up the gallops but he’s more relaxed now and he now looks like a staying chaser. That’s what helps him stay further and in the King George it took all of the three miles for Paddy Brennan to get him there. It took him a long time to get past Vautour and if it had been over another half mile he would have won by three or four lengths. Cheltenham really suits him and he ran away with the Champion Bumper as a four-year-old and when winning the Ryanair Chase. He is able to get a breather in coming down into the dip and then finishes off right up the hill. He had a gallop round Kempton on Saturday and I can’t believe how well he is – if he stays like that in three weeks’ time it will be alright I think we have a better chance of winning the Gold Cup than I thought coming into the King George and I get nervous about it but it’s great
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We all would love to see him win but realistically he has it all to do to beat Don Cossack who definitely looked to have his measure at Kempton.

It fine and well say Cue Card would have won further by 3 or 4 lengths but it's just as easy to say Don Cossack would have beaten Cue Card by 2 or 3 lengths had he stood up.

Cue Card had the run of the race whereas Don Cossack was cut off at the pass and shuffled back through the field but without a shadow of a doubt he was about to take his measure when he came down despite having to make up all the lost ground.

He a 1/2 length down at the 3rd last and a 1/2 length up jumping the 2nd last as these pics clearly show and if anything just starting to get going.

2nd last.jpg3rdlast.jpg
 
I really don't get this and there has to be an alternative view.

unless my memory is wrong it was an entirely tired jump. Not technique or unlucky but tired. Would he have got over the last? He may have been seemingly goi ng best but the evidence is in not getting off the ground. It was two out and the lead can change plenty between that and the line of course. In a race like the kgv horses can simply hit a wall.
 
I think we all love Cue Card but I get the feeling the KG was his high point. You'll hear every trainer argue their animal will be better suited to Cheltenham and better ground but the one who has proven this to be true is Vautour. He definitely has more improvement to come than the others so the only question mark with him is stamina.

The criticism levelled at Don Cossack for his form around Cheltenham is a little harsh imo. He's ran there twice, fallen once and had absolutely no luck in running the other time. For me he deserves another chance to prove himself around the track before I start drawing any conclusions. Whether I'm inclined to back him on this occasion is another question.

Don Poli appears to be the Marmite horse in the race. Some think he'll get lapped whilst others have formed the opinion that the conditions of the GC are made for him. In a lot of renewals I'd have been all over him but this year he's reliant on all three of the classier horses under performing. If I wanted to back a proven grinder in the race I'd be more likely to back Djakadam.

Let me just finish by saying I have an awful recent record in the Gold Cup. Best Mate's first win was the last time I chose correctly which is embarrassing quite frankly. I'm probably looking at the race in slightly the wrong way by often backing the classiest horse in the race (apart from the two years Kauto won!) rather than the relentless galloper. Looks like I'm doomed again :(
 
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If Don Cossack has stood-up, a horse-blanket would likely have covered all three at the line - suggestions of him finishing 3-4L ahead with a clear-round are fanciful, imo, and very hard to justify.

Was DC's a tired fall? I'm not entirely convinced. As I touched on earlier in the thread, his jumping when off the bridle might not be as good as it is when he is travelling on it - and maybe this was the reason for his fall at Kempton, rather than fatigue? There is just a hint that the stronger the race, the less well DC seems to travel, and the more the jumping errors appear to creep in.......though I concede it's a theory that might well be exposed as a fraud at Cheltenham.

Fist, the "half-length-up" at two-out is partly attributable to Don Cossack more or less ignoring the fence, whereas Cue Card had to go to the momentum-tempering effort of actually having to jump it. ;)
 
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Well with your eyesight Grassy we have to take anything you see with a pinch of salt.

You can't even see where Cue Card cut right across Don Cossack and Brian Cooper had to take a pull.

How you could miss that is beyond me

PLUS. There's no arguing he's behind Cue Card at the 3rd last probably by a length at take of an in front of him at the 2nd last,

On top of that Brian Cooper mentions the other day in an article "“Very little went right for Don Cossack at Kempton. He jumped well early but he made a mistake at the fence in front of the stands the first time around and then I got into a barging match with Paddy [Brennan]
 
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Thats maybe true grass but would have thought his very skilled handler would have schooled that out of him. I dunno

I think it is true that the pressing pace took him out of comfort zone and that wont be a plus in this gc
 
A look at the horses "out of their comfort zone " in king George that went on to win Gold Cup is quite something
Looks Like Trouble
Mr Mulligan
Imperial Commander
Norton's Coin

That is just off my head; take with a grain of salt the KG form re horses "out of their comfort zone " as it is different gravy entirely.
 
To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying that Don Cossack has been "taken out of his comfort zone" in these races.

It's more about his style of running. When he is duffing-up G2 and G3 horses, as he has done in the JN Wines and Kinloch Brae this season, he can travel on the bridle throughout the race, and is essentially unhurried as he approaches his fences. But put him in against G1 horses, and he doesn't travel nearly so well, and he can make the kind of mistake he would never ordinarily make against more moderate opposition.

This theory aside, I think he is thoroughly genuine; he just races lazily by nature, and this is magnified to an extent, when better horses are going a more thorough gallop. This, imo, is a different thing than him being "taken out of his comfort zone". He always gives his running, and I haven't seen a race over fences yet, where he has looked out-classed.
 
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Splitting hairs. Comfort in so far as travelling and jumping comfortably then. Whatever

edgt. That's a fair point but they weren't the greatest perhaps and this time around smad place, at the very least, will keep the field on their toes

ive barely looked at the market over past few weeks and had no idea don poli is almost favourite.
 
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Tied Cottage tried to mix it with New Zealander Grand Canyon up front and although the latter fell Tide Cottage was legless behind Silver Buck and jack of Trumps and you would have sworn he was a non stayer

The following year Tied Cottage couldn't get near Analogs Daughter went off like a scalded cat and TC finished tailed of... again behind Silver Buck.


Couple of years later Burrough Hill Lad was left standing by Wayward Lad when he simply couldn't handle the speed.

You could go on forever with horses who are taken out of their confort zone in races at all sort of trips...It means very little if they are 5-10% fitter on the big day
 
Do you all think Smad Place is going to lead? Everyone seems to assume he will but I wouldn't bank on it.

Smad Place is what he is and if he tries to run this lot into the ground it would be suicidal.

I would assume Alan King will want him up with the pace and maybe take it up 6 out if he can but he'll not put him up there from the word go just to be shot at.

That race he won against Many Clouds was a joke. Theatre Guide either wasn't off a yard or he couldn't handle the ground and Many Clouds was as big as a barn door.

You have to ask does he even have the pace to get anything at it. I reckon there's more chance of Vautour doing that from 4 out and he won't be allowing Smad Place to dictate anything for any length of time.
 
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Yes he will lead. Wayne Hutchison said so in interview yesterday at Newbury. He said that's where he's happiest and at his most affective.


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The longer he leads the better for Vautour. Willie Mullins must be thanking his lucky stars to have such a pace maker in the race.
 
reet hard said:
Not sure Smad Place has the speed, or the class, to ensure a Gd1 pace on anything but deeper ground.
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well he skipped round kempton on good early in the season over much shorter. Say what you like about the race but he didn't hang around at all. I was there

obvsiously the issue is at the end of the race but unlike many others he likes the course and distance
 
Whatever sets the pace, I hope I don't see Vautour appear on the leader's shoulder, until they are jumping the last.
 
He'll literally have to be on the leaders shoulder, catching a lift like a ******* parrot to see out this trip.
 
You have my sympathies, Bear.

It must be very disconcerting trying to figure-out exactly which one of the voices in your head to listen to. ;)

:lol:
 
If Willie Mullin is only half right about how much Vautour is going to improve between his last run and the Gold Cup this is a one horse race and it won't matter if he makes it is held up or sets off 30 seconds behind them he'll still win.

Cue Card will have peaked in the King George and I don't see my selection Don Cossack improving dramatically.

The only question I have; is your man exaggerating?
 
clivex said:
well he skipped round kempton on good early in the season over much shorter. Say what you like about the race but he didn't hang around at all. I was there

obvsiously the issue is at the end of the race but unlike many others he likes the course and distance
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Skipping round against 140 horses is a world away from the class he'll meet here.
 
even if SP doesn't lead..RTR and On Her Own are in there..and we know that OHO can make a pace extremely strong as we saw at Leopardstown

but hasn't someone already said that SP rider says they are going to lead..either one of those will make the first circuit a proper test..for anyone expecting a jog and sprint..i think will be disappointed

leading a GC field is no harder than leading a hennessey field..in fact its easier with them all carrying the same large weight in the GC..in a top handicap the pace is stronger early as horses... even 140 ones on 10.0 will run very fast..and they can maintain it with only having a feather weight

a normal front runner ..and SP + OHO are that type..will have no prob leading at least for the first circuit..who exactly is going to want to be near the front to stop them doing so?

carruthers was less rated hoss than SP..had no trouble leading in imperial commander's year..its a fallacy that SP isn't good enough to lead imo
 
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