2016 Gold Cuppin

[Tanlic]

When I see times between fences go up in the Denam Gold Cups I fooking cringe.

When Denman won the Gold Cup the first thing Ruby said was "Kauto wa never travelling"...........the single most important statement on the entire balls up of a race that Denman fans ignored.

Denman fans also chose to ignore that NC finished right next to KS which is a joke in anyone's book.

They also chose to ignore that when the real KS turned up and Denman finished exactly the same distance ahead of Neptune he did the year before meant sweet fanny adams

You Denman fans should enjoy the day in the sun you had but don't you dare compare the Tank with Kauto who was in a different class to him........end of!!!!!

 

[Frankel]

So you're saying that Mullins will have OHO run in the way that burnt him out well before the end at Leopardstown in an attempt to sabotage his own leading hope in the GC?

Leading hope my ar*se

 

[archie]

Leading hope my ar*se

 

[Tanlic]

Leading hope my ar*se

on his who? :blink:

 

[Frankel]

 

[Tanlic]

Take a day off Archie you deserve it pal:lol:

 

[Kauto Abu]

Gold Cuppin

So you're saying that Mullins will have OHO run in the way that burnt him out well before the end at Leopardstown in an attempt to sabotage his own leading hope in the GC? As has been said, until the final field and going are known it's pointless theorising on how the race will be run in a frantic attempt to justify one's own choice. Not waving but drowning?

Leopardstown? No that was crazy stuff!! But he still demonstrated he can go fast early leading a decent field. Hence the reference!! Problem was he went way too fast!! 2014 Gold Cup? Yes, more like it.

OHO Mullins has said will take his chance in the GC along with Ballycasey & Boston Bob. The race is on next week, it's currently Good-Soft with a dry week forecast so I doubt it'll be anything either side of that. They'll water if necessary to maintain that Good-Soft.

As regards analysing the race to justify's one choice. I've been doing this since the KG in an attempt to find the winner!!! It's a discussion forum so that's generally what is done prior to big races no? It's like me saying to you you're ignoring the fact it will be a test of stamina to justify your choice.

With Road to Riches, Smad Place, On His Own all in the field it was fairly obvious (to some ) from a while out the race will be a true test!





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[EC1]

Leopardstown? No that was crazy stuff!! But he still demonstrated he can go fast leading a decent field. Problem was he went way too fast!! 2014 Gold Cup? Yes, more like it.

OHO Mullins has said will take his chance in the GC along with Ballycasey & Boston Bob. The race is on next week, it's currently Good-Soft with a dry week forecast so I doubt it'll be anything either side of that. They'll water if necessary to maintain that Good-Soft.

As regards analysing the race to justify's one choice. I've been doing this since the KG in an attempt to find the winner!!! It's a discussion forum so that's generally what is done prior to big races no? It's like me saying to you you're ignoring the fact it will be a test of stamina to justify your choice.

With Road to Riches, Smad Place, On His Own all in the field it was fairly obvious (to some ) from a while out the race will be a true test!





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

KA

keep up with the confidence level you have..you need that to make decisions at this game..you do that with confidence..thats a massive plus for you

many punters can't make confident decisions... its dartboard bets..and will part with money antepost knowing only about 40% of what they need to know on the day..and yet that same attitude then takes a change when someone tries to unravel the pace side of things of an actual race..then old ante post bettor wants to know in the minutest detail how anyone can judge the pace. Strange change of mindset that..bunging darts at the board with no knowledge of going or pace make up..but is happy to tell someone who wants to look deeper..whats the point..its just guessing. Well..throwing dart bets at a board is too..and a damn sight more lacking in insight.

.ooh you won't know the pace..how can you know..no one knows how this will pan out...and yet..on the same forum..95% of it is having antepost bets for Cheltenham..wtf?...funny isn't it that folk will part with cash without knowing.,.the going..or the pace scenario..but are first in line to try and pull down anyone trying to solve the pace issue..how inconsistent is that?

its like this..how many bets have you had ante post for cheltenham?...oooh 120 i think...dart board job then?..guessing hoping for best?..you didn't care about the pace or the ground?..no....but when someone tried to work out the pace..you thought they were guessing and wasting their time?..yes.

trying to unravel pace is a key area at this game...just ignoring it altogether is stuff of ostrich..oh well..i've had a bet..its now in lap o gods whether race suits it

why should people wanting to try and estimate the pace be wasting their time..but slinging 100 bets at races without prior knowledge be deemed to be a good use of time?

all things are important..price you get on at..so ante post can be good...how the race might pan out..so pace and slinging money at hosses is all a certain amount of guesswork,,,but only when folk are ante posting months in advance is it deemed shrewd..but when they want to unravel pace..its deemed pointless and a waste of time..stuff of the geek

bizarre

 

[Grasshopper]

It doesn't have to be as severe as Denman in '08 tho who went fast, fast slow. You're looking at the severest end of the scale!!

True, but it was in response to the suggestion that there is going to be an attritional race.

As EC1 indicated a page back, Denman's 2008 Gold Cup was as attritional as a Gold Cup can get. My question is about whether the 2016 running will be anywhere near as attritional as that race, given the expected lead-horses are vastly inferior to Neptune Collonges and OHO. And if it isn't going to be that attritional, then exactly how attritional is it going to be?

 

[EC1]

EC do you happen to have Kauto's pace from 2007 gold cup , just interested to compare to 2009.

2009	KAUTO STAR		....10	111-2	1113	11-4	11-5
2007	KAUTO STAR		.....8	11110	11-4	11-2	1119

<tbody>
[TD="width: 180"][/TD]
[TD="width: 65"][/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F1 – F7 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F7 – F12 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F12–F18 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F18-F21 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F21-FIN [/TD]

</tbody>

In 2007 KS had an even easier time earlier on than he did in 2009..after two sections he was travelling at 18 lengths slower pace than efficient..saving loads of petrol..the mid and late is all about speed..particularly the last section

either of thsoe two scenarios are perfect..particularly 2007.. for the 3m hoss that don't want emptying out early on in a race and has more speed than stamina..those two GC's were the perfect pace match for KS

Vautour fans will be wanting that scenario..but don't forget..? stayer KS..hammers Vautour in the 3m benchmark test..so it is ? if V is even as good a stayer as KS...so Vautour..imo is not as good a stayer at 3 mile as KS..and he will need a similar pace scenario that KS got twice..thats a lot of needs to me.

 

[Desert Orchid]

given they are the best-part of two-stone inferior?

 

[frontrunner]

2009	KAUTO STAR		10	-2	3	-4	-5
2007	KAUTO STAR		8	10	-4	-2	-9

<colgroup><col width="40"><col width="180"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="65"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 40"][/TD]
[TD="width: 180"][/TD]
[TD="width: 65"][/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F1 – F7 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F7 – F12 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F12–F18 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F18-F21 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F21-FIN [/TD]

</tbody>

In 2007 KS had an even easier time earlier on than he did in 2009..after two sections he was travelling at 18 lengths slower pace than efficient..saving loads of petrol..the mid and late is all about speed..particularly the last section

either of thsoe two scenarios are perfect..particularly 2007.. for the 3m hoss that don't want emptying out early on in a race and has more speed than stamina..those two GC's were the perfect pace match for KS

Vautour fans will be wanting that scenario..but don't forget..? stayer KS..hammers Vautour in the 3m benchmark test..so it is ? if V is even as good a stayer as KS...so Vautour..imo is not as good a stayer at 3 mile as KS..and he will need a similar pace scenario that KS got twice..thats a lot of needs to me.

tks again EC , its quite interesting the way the two races similarly unfolded for Kauto. On the last paragraph Im a little confused , you said KS hammers Vautour in the 3m benchmark but surely you case study only involves one race as Vautour has only raced once at 3m. Im i missing something?

 

[Euronymous]

			F1 – F7
2009	KAUTO STAR		....10	111-2	1113	11-4	11-5
2007	KAUTO STAR		.....8	11110	11-4	11-2	1119

<TBODY>
[TD="width: 65"] F7 – F12
[/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F12–F18
[/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F18-F21
[/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F21-FIN
[/TD]

</TBODY>

stayer KS..hammers Vautour in the 3m benchmark test..so it is ? if V is even as good a stayer as KS...so Vautour..imo is not as good a stayer at 3 mile as KS..and he will need a similar pace scenario that KS got twice..thats a lot of needs to me.

Over 2m 2m4 and 3m I would take Vautour over Kauto Star everytime at Cheltenham. Kempton the reverse obviously. Over the Gold Cup trip? That's the million dollar question. My guess is that in a dawdle Vautour might score a GC like KS did, but in a renewal run at a pace he won't.

 

[EC1]

the KG benchmark..KS v Vautour... Frontrunner..and the other KG comparisons i've posted.....imo..show V to be below the benchmark level KG winner staying wise..just my opinion those are..no one else agrees bar KA so best ignore it probably

we all have a view don't we?..if i'm wrong on the day..i'll be first one on here to hold hands up..whereas some who post very strong views here ..will disappear for a week or two

its not that important in grand scheme of things..if dickheads like me didn't post strong views ..then the thread is as a boring as fook..we need strong views..oh..and folk that know how to behave when they are right afterwards...i just hope its me..or its head in hands time:lol:

 

[Kauto Abu]

True, but it was in response to the suggestion that there is going to be an attritional race.

As EC1 indicated a page back, Denman's 2008 Gold Cup was as attritional as a Gold Cup can get. My question is about whether the 2016 running will be anywhere near as attritional as that race, given the expected lead-horses are vastly inferior to Neptune Collonges and OHO. And if it isn't going to be that attritional, then exactly how attritional is it going to be?

I suppose I'd define attritional as where a certain part of the race that would be run faster than the norm Grassy. Over 3m2.5f which in itself takes some getting you can imagine a certain part of the race being run faster makes the end much tougher!! That's attritional to me.

To try and answer your second question about this years renewal it'll all depend on how Wayne Hutchinson on SP or whoever's on RTR if he turns up feel about the pace mid race. If they're happy the gallop could even out but if they want to press on again it could signal a lot of horses paddling 4 out!! Road to Riches likes to front run too so it's a part of the race that's virtually impossible to predict.

I can gather however, and there's enough evidence I think to support it, that there will be a fast early time. That alone is enough to to bring stamina into it and it's why Don Poli around a course he has a 100% record around is so appealing to me. He'll be doing all his best work late on and I genuinely feel there's tons left in his locker to call on when needed. It's very heartening to see his trainer suggest the same and that the extra distance will bring big improvement from him too.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[EC1]

			F1 – F7	F7 – F12
2009	KAUTO STAR		....10	111-2	1113	11-4	11-5
2007	KAUTO STAR		.....8	11110	11-4	11-2	1119

<tbody>
[TD="width: 65"] F12–F18 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F18-F21 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F21-FIN [/TD]

</tbody>

Over 2m 2m4 and 3m I would take Vautour over Kauto Star everytime at Cheltenham. Kempton the reverse obviously. Over the Gold Cup trip? That's the million dollar question. My guess is that in a dawdle Vautour might score a GC like KS did, but in a renewal run at a pace he won't.

even if its a dawdle..V didn't show what KS did at Kempton..admit the ground was a touch quicker in the comparison i posted..but KS buries V in it

its probably one of the most fascinating GC's for some years..may not be the best..but certainly most intriguing

 

[frontrunner]

Fair dibs EC, I find the pace angle interesting and see where you are coming from most of the time. With regards Vautour I feel its difficult to compare against other horses so early in his jumping career ( only 2 race races outside novice) but everyone has a right to their opinion. What I do feel about your research is that there is a very nice angle for a in running bet in the gold cup. I would be interested in what time they need to be jumping the 7th and 12th fence to be smack on standard from that We should have a very good idea how they could finish. I know the times rely on ground conditions so is this something you would have time to put up when ground conditions become apparent.

 

[littlelad]

the KG benchmark..KS v Vautour... Frontrunner..and the other KG comparisons i've posted.....imo..show V to be below the benchmark level KG winner staying wise..just my opinion those are..no one else agrees bar KA so best ignore it probably

we all have a view don't we?..if i'm wrong on the day..i'll be first one on here to hold hands up..whereas some who post very strong views here ..will disappear for a week or two

its not that important in grand scheme of things..if dickheads like me didn't post strong views ..then the thread is as a boring as fook..we need strong views..oh..and folk that know how to behave when they are right afterwards...i just hope its me..or its head in hands time:lol:

I was initially on the fence regards V staying, found your sectional analysis very convincing, so you've convinced 2 people!!

Sent from my SM-G360F using Tapatalk

 

[Euronymous]

At Kempton. Both horses have/had major course biases

 

[EC1]

Fair dibs EC, I find the pace angle interesting and see where you are coming from most of the time. With regards Vautour I feel its difficult to compare against other horses so early in his jumping career ( only 2 race races outside novice) but everyone has a right to their opinion. What I do feel about your research is that there is a very nice angle for a in running bet in the gold cup. I would be interested in what time they need to be jumping the 7th and 12th fence to be smack on standard from that We should have a very good idea how they could finish. I know the times rely on ground conditions so is this something you would have time to put up when ground conditions become apparent.

I've got figures calculated for the last 10 festival days..including all the going speeds....so once i know the going on the day after first two races i can guage roughly how long the GC will take overall..from that i can guage the time required from fence 1 until they cross it again after a circuit. It will be roughish but it will give an idea of the pace on first circuit in real time

 

[Kauto Abu]

the KG benchmark..KS v Vautour... Frontrunner..and the other KG comparisons i've posted.....imo..show V to be below the benchmark level KG winner staying wise..just my opinion those are..no one else agrees bar KA so best ignore it probably

we all have a view don't we?..if i'm wrong on the day..i'll be first one on here to hold hands up..whereas some who post very strong views here ..will disappear for a week or two

its not that important in grand scheme of things..if dickheads like me didn't post strong views ..then the thread is as a boring as fook..we need strong views..oh..and folk that know how to behave when they are right afterwards...i just hope its me..or its head in hands time:lol:

Likewise, If Vautour comes out & wins this years renewal I'll hold my hands up & say I got it totally wrong. He'll be the complete opposite of what I think he is then and I wont shy away from that. I'll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong.

I took an opinion after Ascot late last year that Vautour isn't a gold cup horse. Nothing I've seen or studied from Kempton shows otherwise for me. Last time I was this sure that a horse couldn't win a championship race at the festival was Hurricane Fly in the '14 hurdle when there was plenty here who thought different.

Of course when Don Poli races like I believe he will ye can all form an orderly cue. [emoji3]





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[frontrunner]

I've got figures calculated for the last 10 festival days..including all the going speeds....so once i know the going on the day after first two races i can guage roughly how long the GC will take overall..from that i can guage the time required from fence 1 until they cross it again after a circuit. It will be roughish but it will give an idea of the pace on first circuit in real time

Cheers

 

[Grey]

I don't see why not, the only difference being they'd get tired sooner than Denman did and probably fold more comprehensively once the petrol runs out.

 

[archie]

Leopardstown? No that was crazy stuff!! But he still demonstrated he can go fast early leading a decent field. Hence the reference!! Problem was he went way too fast!! 2014 Gold Cup? Yes, more like it.

OHO Mullins has said will take his chance in the GC along with Ballycasey & Boston Bob. The race is on next week, it's currently Good-Soft with a dry week forecast so I doubt it'll be anything either side of that. They'll water if necessary to maintain that Good-Soft.

As regards analysing the race to justify's one choice. I've been doing this since the KG in an attempt to find the winner!!! It's a discussion forum so that's generally what is done prior to big races no? It's like me saying to you you're ignoring the fact it will be a test of stamina to justify your choice.

With Road to Riches, Smad Place, On His Own all in the field it was fairly obvious (to some ) from a while out the race will be a true test!





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sure I was half winding you up, KA, but I think there's just as much chance of OHO controlling the pace from the front as just blazing away. Jockey bookings for all the Mullins horses will be interesting. For all the discussion, I'm not sure that anyone has said that they're certain that Vautour will stay but I don't think that anyone has come up with a reason to oppose him other than stamina. We're all grown up enough to sink or swim by our own decisions and face the consequences if we're wrong. As I said earlier, for me Vautour wins if he stays and Don Poli wins if he doesn't. Either result will have me in profit. You have looked at Vautour's Ascot and Kempton runs and taken a view. I looked at his pre-Cheltenham runs last season and then the JLT. If he's in the same frame of mind this year, it's easy to see him lobbing along close up at the top of the hill, freewheeling downhill and taking the lead coming round the bend. That's the stage where no-one knows how things will turn out.

 

[clivex]

Likewise, If Vautour comes out & wins this years renewal I'll hold my hands up & say I got it totally wrong. He'll be the complete opposite of what I think he is then and I wont shy away from that. I'll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong.

I took an opinion after Ascot late last year that Vautour isn't a gold cup horse. Nothing I've seen or studied from Kempton shows otherwise for me. Last time I was this sure that a horse couldn't win a championship race at the festival was Hurricane Fly in the '14 hurdle when there was plenty here who thought different.

Of course when Don Poli races like I believe he will ye can all form an orderly cue. [emoji3]





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A somewhat slow queue

Queuing behind Don Poli would be like pension day at the post office