granger
Senior Jockey
A boy Noel
2016 Gold Cuppin
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
A boy Noel
EC1
On a break
On is own alone disproves the can't lead theory....has shown many times he can lead top class hosses..he even crushed the pace at leopardstown..and he is a lesser rated hoss than SP
its a theory with all the evidence proving it wrong..but like i've said before..when a punter makes up their mind..they won't change it even if its flawed thinking..its set in the mind..won't change
it doesn't even matter if it don't lead..oho will..but to say SP..hasn't the ability to lead isn't logical
its a theory with all the evidence proving it wrong..but like i've said before..when a punter makes up their mind..they won't change it even if its flawed thinking..its set in the mind..won't change
it doesn't even matter if it don't lead..oho will..but to say SP..hasn't the ability to lead isn't logical
There'll be lots of horses who'll make this a severe test of stamina by ensuring a breakneck pace. Be that Smad Place, On His Own or Road to Riches. You'll also have Ballycasey who likes to race prominently so it's really going to be set up for a horse who will stay every inch of the 3m2.5f. If one lad slacks off there'll be another there to pick it up.
It's going to be a gruelling race. If there's any rain during the week it'll make it extremely attritional and you'd be narrowing the winner down to two or three horses in my opinion!!
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It's going to be a gruelling race. If there's any rain during the week it'll make it extremely attritional and you'd be narrowing the winner down to two or three horses in my opinion!!
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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How often have we said this kind of thing ahead of a race only for the opposite to happen?
I wouldn't make any presumptions about how this race might pan out.
EC1
On a break
I think that pace is not really given its true meaning in a lot of these discussion. They don't have to go hell for leather to make the GC what its is..a proper 3m2.5f test. They pace only has to be efficent to ensure that truly staying is really necessary. Its only if there are large lulls in efficient pace that allows such as the KS type of winner..ie one that we would say has more speed than stamina
If they go faster than would be described as efficient..then it depends how much faster..if they go daft pace like at Leopardstwon..the pace collapses..but there is the pace where they go just a little faster than ideal where you need extra reserves. But for a doubtful stayer to win a GC there has to be a decent lull somewhere for a decent distance...thats usually at the start..the first few fences of any GC actually set the trend for the rest of the race...but you do get the hole in the middle races if one horse can boss the pace...if more than one want it..the hole in the middle probably won't occur
These are the pace lines for the last few GC's..in each section the pace is measured against ideal pace which has been calculated using the avergae pace in the section using numerous GC's. If the figure is a minus it means they went faster than ideal pace in that section..the figures are lengths
<tbody>
[TD="width: 65"] F12–F18 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F18-F21 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F21-FIN [/TD]
</tbody>
In Denmans year the pace up to F12 was run 9 lengths faster than ideal pace...then even the mid section is 3 faster than ideal....look how it damaged his finish..13 lengths slower than you would expect.
9 lengths doesn't sound much..just think of its as speed above or below efficent instead of just x lengths ..consider they have run a fair distance to F12..at a pace faster than ideal..then again stronger mid section....it canes you later. Anyone that runs distance races knows you only have to go a stride faster for a good way early or mid in a race to damage your final time. Denmans win was a grulleing race..and they "only" went 9 lengths faster pace early on...but there was no lull mid race either
KS had the type of pace that i'd imagine Vautour would love..10 lengths slower pace early on helped him..look at his finish...5 lengths faster than par..he had petrol left and used his speed to win.
Imperial Commander was a mixed bag race..slow early but mid late pace strong..finishes race in near on efficient manner
Coneygree is interesting..strong early..then evenish..then a lull to make sure he got home just a little slower than par. If jock had kept him going at the pace he went in the middle section..in the next last section....he wouldn't have lasted home.
Bobsworth year was pretty tough pace as well..the first 3 sections all run faster than par..thats a lot of petrol used..hence slow last 2 sections are slow..a tough old race.
most races pace wise can be split into 3...then you get slow/even/slow etc..Denman would be fast/fast/slow..KS = slow/even/fast...Bobs worth Fast/fast/slow
lord windermere + syncronised are "hole in the middle" pace jobs..fast/slow/ fast
For this years race you have to ask is there a lack of early pace enough to get the KS type of race?..i personally don't see that..will there be a lull to get the fast slow fast scenario..thats hard to see with such as OHO in there..even if he doesn't lead..he will at some point..and as we saw at Leopardstown..doesn't really do lulls.
this years race could be even/even/even if you take a neutral view...but its more likely that one of the first 2 sections will be fast..which imo means that the end will be slow..playing to stamina not speed.
Usually if just one horse wants that lead he can get the lull somewhere where the jock wants it.....but if you are leading and want a lull in pace..you are buggered if a hoss like OHO is prepared to pass you to maintain that pace..there is then no lull...that means the end of race is slow and tiring.
If they go faster than would be described as efficient..then it depends how much faster..if they go daft pace like at Leopardstwon..the pace collapses..but there is the pace where they go just a little faster than ideal where you need extra reserves. But for a doubtful stayer to win a GC there has to be a decent lull somewhere for a decent distance...thats usually at the start..the first few fences of any GC actually set the trend for the rest of the race...but you do get the hole in the middle races if one horse can boss the pace...if more than one want it..the hole in the middle probably won't occur
These are the pace lines for the last few GC's..in each section the pace is measured against ideal pace which has been calculated using the avergae pace in the section using numerous GC's. If the figure is a minus it means they went faster than ideal pace in that section..the figures are lengths
| F1 – F7 | F7 – F12 | ||||||
| 2008 | DENMAN | -1 | -8 | -3 | 0 | 13 | |
| 2009 | KAUTO STAR | 10 | -2 | 3 | -4 | -5 | |
| 2010 | IMPERIAL COMMANDER | 13 | 1 | -7 | -4 | 1 | |
| 2011 | LONG RUN | -1 | -2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | |
| 2012 | SYNCHRONISED | -5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | -9 | |
| 2013 | BOBS WORTH | -4 | -4 | -3 | 8 | 5 | |
| 2014 | LORD WINDERMERE | -8 | 4 | 14 | -2 | -6 | |
| 2015 | CONEYGREE | -8 | 2 | -1 | 9 | 2 |
<tbody>
[TD="width: 65"] F12–F18 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F18-F21 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F21-FIN [/TD]
</tbody>
In Denmans year the pace up to F12 was run 9 lengths faster than ideal pace...then even the mid section is 3 faster than ideal....look how it damaged his finish..13 lengths slower than you would expect.
9 lengths doesn't sound much..just think of its as speed above or below efficent instead of just x lengths ..consider they have run a fair distance to F12..at a pace faster than ideal..then again stronger mid section....it canes you later. Anyone that runs distance races knows you only have to go a stride faster for a good way early or mid in a race to damage your final time. Denmans win was a grulleing race..and they "only" went 9 lengths faster pace early on...but there was no lull mid race either
KS had the type of pace that i'd imagine Vautour would love..10 lengths slower pace early on helped him..look at his finish...5 lengths faster than par..he had petrol left and used his speed to win.
Imperial Commander was a mixed bag race..slow early but mid late pace strong..finishes race in near on efficient manner
Coneygree is interesting..strong early..then evenish..then a lull to make sure he got home just a little slower than par. If jock had kept him going at the pace he went in the middle section..in the next last section....he wouldn't have lasted home.
Bobsworth year was pretty tough pace as well..the first 3 sections all run faster than par..thats a lot of petrol used..hence slow last 2 sections are slow..a tough old race.
most races pace wise can be split into 3...then you get slow/even/slow etc..Denman would be fast/fast/slow..KS = slow/even/fast...Bobs worth Fast/fast/slow
lord windermere + syncronised are "hole in the middle" pace jobs..fast/slow/ fast
For this years race you have to ask is there a lack of early pace enough to get the KS type of race?..i personally don't see that..will there be a lull to get the fast slow fast scenario..thats hard to see with such as OHO in there..even if he doesn't lead..he will at some point..and as we saw at Leopardstown..doesn't really do lulls.
this years race could be even/even/even if you take a neutral view...but its more likely that one of the first 2 sections will be fast..which imo means that the end will be slow..playing to stamina not speed.
Usually if just one horse wants that lead he can get the lull somewhere where the jock wants it.....but if you are leading and want a lull in pace..you are buggered if a hoss like OHO is prepared to pass you to maintain that pace..there is then no lull...that means the end of race is slow and tiring.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Isn't this shown historically not to be the case, in EC1's research, will suggests the Gold Cup is run at an even-pace for the Grade, based on finishing times and sectionals?
EC1
On a break
it all depends on the make up ..ie does one get to boss it at his own pace...what happens obviously
the two most attritional GC's weren't hell for leathers..they just went a bit faster for long periods early or mid or a combination of both. Its unusual to see the kind of race where they go hell for leather at this trip like the leopardstown effort which was just a bizarre race..i haven't seen a GC run to a pace collapse like that..Denmans pace line is probably one of the most attritional we have had recently...so using that as a benchmark of probably as tough as it gets is fair.
The hell for leather thing is overplayed..in these long distances races..as when people run long distances..it only takes going a little faster for a decent stretch to empty tanks.
Gold Cuppin
Historically maybe. But this race isn't in the past obviously. It's still to be run & with the likes of OHO in it, who EC has clearly pointed out doesn't tend to do lulls, I think it's safe to say there'll be more pace on than normal at certain times thus ensuring stamina will come into play.
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Historically maybe. But this race isn't in the past obviously. It's still to be run & with the likes of OHO in it, who EC has clearly pointed out doesn't tend to do lulls, I think it's safe to say there'll be more pace on than normal at certain times thus ensuring stamina will come into play.
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frontrunner
Conditional
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EC do you happen to have Kauto's pace from 2007 gold cup , just interested to compare to 2009.
Tks
Tks
EC1
On a break
oh yes KA..i think it will be decently run from the start for sure..but they don't actually need to go off like hares for this to be a stamina sapper as can be seen from past races.
I'd say unless its a jog and sprint..its very hard to judge by eye when watching this race with the camera close to them on far side..just how fast they are going
I'll try and do a circuit comparison in real time on the day to see how fast the first circuit is..the first races will give a good idea of the ground and once you estimate the final time of GC to nearest few seconds you can estimate from that first circuit time if it is a strong test whilst actually watching the race.
I'd say unless its a jog and sprint..its very hard to judge by eye when watching this race with the camera close to them on far side..just how fast they are going
I'll try and do a circuit comparison in real time on the day to see how fast the first circuit is..the first races will give a good idea of the ground and once you estimate the final time of GC to nearest few seconds you can estimate from that first circuit time if it is a strong test whilst actually watching the race.
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EC1
On a break
yes..am off out to lunch with better half now..will post later
Many Clouds likely to have Grand National prep in the Gold Cup too I see. With 3 weeks to go to Aintree, his target all year, you can be sure he won't be exerting himself too much & will be kept out the back.
There's only one Gold Cup but for this fella it seems like his will be Aintree.
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There's only one Gold Cup but for this fella it seems like his will be Aintree.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Understood........but Denman himself set (practically) all the gallop in his Gold Cup. On what basis could a similar pace be expected in this one, given Smad Place and OHO are clearly vastly-inferior beats, to the Tank?
Is it really reasonable to expect them to be able to put the same kind of pace to the race as Denman did, given they are the best-part of two-stone inferior? Can we really expect this Gold Cup to be as attritional a race as Denman's was?
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Only a Plodder supporter who knows he is about to do his conkers in the Gold Cup, would come out with this kind of thing. It's like Savlon for the wallet.
Only a Plodder supporter who knows he is about to do his conkers in the Gold Cup, would come out with this kind of thing. It's like Savlon for the wallet.
What kind of thing? Factual information!!
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Grasshopper
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He did, but he was on Neptune Collonges heels for the first circuit. And EC1's research shows that it was the first 2/3 of the Gold Cup that all the pace was on........it was the finishing times that were poor, because they had gone too fast too early.
So.......the question remains valid........is it reasonable to expect Smad Place and OHO to go the kind of early/mid pace that Neptune Collonges and Denman did in 2008?
So.......the question remains valid........is it reasonable to expect Smad Place and OHO to go the kind of early/mid pace that Neptune Collonges and Denman did in 2008?
Don't think I've ever said there won't be a strong pace; truth is, it's daft even trying to predict it without knowing the field and the ground.
What I have said is, I doubt Smad Place has the class or the speed to set one without plenty of help from the ground. Others think differently - we shall see.
Grasshopper
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You're such a tease, TS.........out with it, man! :lol:
Gold Cuppin
It doesn't have to be as severe as Denman in '08 tho who went fast, fast slow. You're looking at the severest end of the scale!! I think when you look at OHO last year right up there with Coneygree (strong early pace by EC's findings) there's every reason to believe the early pace of this years race will be fast and that's all it'll take to make the race a test of stamina. Look at him at Leopardstown last month too and he set crazy fractions. He tends to go off fast.
Even on EC's findings last year with Coneygree setting strong early fractions followed by a more even pace there on in it was stamina laden horses fighting out the finish. It'll just take something early doors or mid race to up the ante slightly for this to develop into a true stamina test. It is more than acceptable to suggest OHO can do this & with Smad Place and possibly RTR breathing down his neck you could possibly have a fast mid sectional too which would make it a Denman/Bob's Worth type of test.
Remember OHO took them along from the 2nd in '14 when LW won. It was he who set that fast first sectional. Lord Windermere would hardly be renowned for his speed but again a fast early pace brought him right into it for a finish to win. OHO has also done enough by finishing 2nd & 5th in the race over the last 2 years to suggest he can maintain a decent even gallop after setting strong early fractions.
The question I'd be asking if I were a Vautour fan would be is there enough in the race to suggest a slow early pace giving Vautour a chance to use his speed like Kauto Star did in his win? The answer with OHO is quite obviously, to me anyway, no! It'll be fast early doors for sure and that, as Ec's findings will back up, will ensure enough to suggest stamina will be called on. If he were to fall or something early SP is more than capable than taking them on for at least a circuit, personally I think he'd do it for longer if required!! Lesser quality horses such as Caruthers have managed it perfectly fine before!!
That's why I find the notion that Vautour will have this won 3 out by some here or on on twitter very amusing.
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It doesn't have to be as severe as Denman in '08 tho who went fast, fast slow. You're looking at the severest end of the scale!! I think when you look at OHO last year right up there with Coneygree (strong early pace by EC's findings) there's every reason to believe the early pace of this years race will be fast and that's all it'll take to make the race a test of stamina. Look at him at Leopardstown last month too and he set crazy fractions. He tends to go off fast.
Even on EC's findings last year with Coneygree setting strong early fractions followed by a more even pace there on in it was stamina laden horses fighting out the finish. It'll just take something early doors or mid race to up the ante slightly for this to develop into a true stamina test. It is more than acceptable to suggest OHO can do this & with Smad Place and possibly RTR breathing down his neck you could possibly have a fast mid sectional too which would make it a Denman/Bob's Worth type of test.
Remember OHO took them along from the 2nd in '14 when LW won. It was he who set that fast first sectional. Lord Windermere would hardly be renowned for his speed but again a fast early pace brought him right into it for a finish to win. OHO has also done enough by finishing 2nd & 5th in the race over the last 2 years to suggest he can maintain a decent even gallop after setting strong early fractions.
The question I'd be asking if I were a Vautour fan would be is there enough in the race to suggest a slow early pace giving Vautour a chance to use his speed like Kauto Star did in his win? The answer with OHO is quite obviously, to me anyway, no! It'll be fast early doors for sure and that, as Ec's findings will back up, will ensure enough to suggest stamina will be called on. If he were to fall or something early SP is more than capable than taking them on for at least a circuit, personally I think he'd do it for longer if required!! Lesser quality horses such as Caruthers have managed it perfectly fine before!!
That's why I find the notion that Vautour will have this won 3 out by some here or on on twitter very amusing.
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archie
Senior Jockey
So you're saying that Mullins will have OHO run in the way that burnt him out well before the end at Leopardstown in an attempt to sabotage his own leading hope in the GC? As has been said, until the final field and going are known it's pointless theorising on how the race will be run in a frantic attempt to justify one's own choice. Not waving but drowning?
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