2018 Gold Cuppin'

Might Bite is no doubt slowing down towards the end of the race you can take the view that he was either taking the **** and idling or that he was tiring. Without running sideways he would have won further than he did however he was 20L clear turning for home and he wouldn't have been 20L clear at the line. So you have either have to say he was tiring or that other horses behind him started running faster at the end of a 3mile chase than they were at the beginning which is as rare as hens teeth. They can't close the gap if one or the other isn't true and I'd favour the Might Bite tiring theory. Yes he's found enough to fetch out Whisper but how much had Whisper got left ?

Its above my intelligence level to be doing sectional times but I'd love to see sectional comparisons from other R.S.A finishes. If Might Bites and Whispers from the last fence to the line weren't the slowest (given similar ground) i'd be very surprised and admit to having it totally wrong.
 
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I'm not convinced Might Bite was idling until after the last, by which point Whisper was clearly eating into the lead. Might Bite would have been a clear winner without his errant swerve but I reckon by not much more than six lengths (4lbs), which is how I've rated him. On the other hand, I would say Might Bite is probably worth a considerable 'mark-up' as he might well have won by the 20 lengths had de Boinville held on to him for another couple of furlongs. The turn of foot he showed from the top of the hill until after the bend if deployed from the home turn might have devastated the field just as impressively. I'd be happy to settle for a notional rating somewhere between those two points.

Take Kylemore Lough on Saturday, for example, if he had slipped on landing two out we'd all be rating him a 20+ lengths winner but after that slow, tired jump at the last he was finishing slower than Crisp at the end of 'that' National.
 
I trust Simon Rowlands won't mind my copying over an excerpt from his Sectional Debrief of last year's festival and the Gold Cup in particular:

[FONT=&quot]A more useful comparison is one between this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and last year’s, Don Cossack. The surface speed was very similar on both occasions (I have it a mere 5 lb quicker this year than last), but Don Cossack ran about 1.8s quicker and can be considered a better horse.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup was run at a fast pace bar a steadying mid-race, and those figures for Don Cossack should be viewed in the context that he did not even lead. Neither did Sizing John, who was mostly about five lengths off a pace being set by Native River and Champagne West.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]This year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup made up the deficit mid-race, but only briefly (around the top of the hill on the first circuit). Thereafter, it dropped several lengths behind and stayed there.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The closing stages of this year’s race tested speed more than stamina – the race finishing speed was 100.4% where just under 100% would be par – but only just. There were no major bad-luck stories on sectionals, but Sizing John’s timefigure is likely to be in the mid-to-low 160s, where a good Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (like Don Cossack) would be well into the 170s.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Timeform’s Sectional Archive gives timing details of all runners at all meetings, and not just over the last four days. As an example of some of the information which can be extracted, the following are the fastest closing sectionals across this year’s Cheltenham Festival.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Absolute times without context do not always tell the whole story, but there are some interesting figures there, including the fact that Altior ran faster late on in terms of seconds/furlong (13.72) than any other chaser at the entire Festival and that the same distinction over hurdles went to Arctic Fire (13.65 s/f).[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The presence in those lists of some who failed to make the places but still ran notably fast late in their races should raise a few eyebrows, too![/FONT]

I was a wee bit disappointed the RSA wasn't included but notice that Whisper is in there as a fast finisher. For MB to have slowed right up then rallied to have held him off speaks volumes, I think.
 
It could do Des but if your gauging it from the last 3.8F its not really telling you how much of that was the final half furlong which is what I'd be more interested in re- Whisper. I'm not completely crabbing the form anyway I've said numerous times that MB is a worthy favourite its just I'm not of the belief that he's better than the rest or if he is that he's as superior as most would think. I actually find myself agreeing with Tanlic which is kind of worrying in itself that Might Bite certainly faces a stiffer challenge from the likes of Native River and Sizing John and the rest tbh than he has faced to date. Actually reading those sectionals there you might be inclined to think that Native River would be better suited by a faster pace and a test of Stamina than he did last year.

Can't wait to see the race myself I just hope most of them turn up and run to something like there best, it could be an absolute cracker.
 
Desert Orchid said:
....and that the same distinction over hurdles went to Arctic Fire (13.65 s/f).
The presence in those lists of some who failed to make the places but still ran notably fast late in their races should raise a few eyebrows, too!
Click to expand...

I didn't need to see this Dessie, I have enough (more than any other horse) on L'ami Serge already.
 
He'd go well in the expected ground having won round Aintree on good.

On the downside Hadrian's won it for Nicky off 146 and he carried 11 stone so SDR is going to get near on 12st.

Tidal Bay managed it but you have to go back along long way to find another...Arkle and the Dickler carried big weights
 
Interesting that they’re thinking of getting another run into Our Duke. He has got it all to prove though. I can’t have one in the Gold Cup that makes so many jumping errors.


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It’s a big risk though. He could just as easily be Carvills Hill.


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I haven't checked Gault Stats but last year's RP trends (which Sizing John fitted) would say that it's a straight fight between Might Bite and Road To Respect.
 
I'm sure Ken Pitterson [sp] said when reviewing the horses pre race that SdR looked to be the one that would need the race more than NR. Pity they can't get another race into him. Never think any horse of that calibre should be 80/1 but, as a small stakes ew backer I'm not complaining.
 
I'll check his column in the Weekender tomorrow, moehat, to see if he expands any on that.

It occurred to me, reading between the lines of PN's remarks re another run, that maybe they might feel obliged to use the Gold Cup instead as a prep for the Bowl. Hope I'm wrong about that, though.
 
Nicholls has jocked Cobden up on Cliffs of Dover in the Kingwell - new or old jockey for Cue Card ?
 
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