2022 Grand National

Euronymous said:
Elliott has way too many still in. There should be a maximum of 5 for any one stable.
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Not convinced that would be fair, Euro. If all the owners want to have their horses run and they're happy to pay to do so then being part of a large stable shouldn't disadvantage them.

I'm not sure I want to see half a dozen Gigginstowns or JPs in the race but I'm not sure I would agree with limiting them either.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not convinced that would be fair, Euro. If all the owners want to have their horses run and they're happy to pay to do so then being part of a large stable shouldn't disadvantage them.
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Fair? **** fair. Those Giggi cunts don't give two shits about the welfare of their horses. Mouse Morris son tweeted something a while back asking about their intentions with regard to First Lieutenant and the reply back was eye watering. Questions need asking if some of these horses take part.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Isn't he #44 in the list?
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I am just going by this racing post article where it says...

Classic Chase scorer Eclair Surf needs three others to come out, while 100-1 shot Domaine De L'Isle requires two not to be declared.

The horses outside the cut
Death Duty National rating 144
Domaine De L'Isle 144
Eclair Surf 143
Fortescue 143
Commodore 142
School Boy Hours 142
Romain De Senam 142
 
Marb said:
I am just going by this racing post article where it says...

Classic Chase scorer Eclair Surf needs three others to come out, while 100-1 shot Domaine De L'Isle requires two not to be declared.

The horses outside the cut
Death Duty National rating 144
Domaine De L'Isle 144
Eclair Surf 143
Fortescue 143
Commodore 142
School Boy Hours 142
Romain De Senam 142
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Can someone explain why Eclair Surf and not Fortescue would be first up of those rated 143?
 
HawkWing said:
Can someone explain why Eclair Surf and not Fortescue would be first up of those rated 143?
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He wouldn’t.

If multiple horses have the same race rating (as independently given by the BHA for the race) then it’s the highest current official rating which takes precedence.

If that’s the same, as it is for those two then it’s a ballot.
 
Above the cut at the moment Willie has 4 entered, double green have 4 entered, JP has 6 entered, Gordon has 8. That's before we get to the 3 of De Bromheads.

Some may still come out of course, and there a small element of duplication, but even so that covers half the 40 which had to be seriously unhealthy for the race.
 
I see the bookies are up to their old tricks.

They're putting up obvious fancies, claiming there's big money for them when all they're really doing is trying sucker in punters to take odds that are shorter than they should be.

The big one today is Snow Leopardess. Mare. Grey. Course form. In form. Mentioned on ITV a lot at the weekend. Is this also the one that's already a mum? An Alice Plunkett emotion-laden story?
 
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It is in Michael O'Leary (and therefore Gordon Elliot's) and JP McManus's interest that nothing at the bottom gets in. Don't expect any favours.
 
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Maruco said:
Above the cut at the moment Willie has 4 entered, double green have 4 entered, JP has 6 entered, Gordon has 8. That's before we get to the 3 of De Bromheads.

Some may still come out of course, and there a small element of duplication, but even so that covers half the 40 which had to be seriously unhealthy for the race.
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This describes every big handicap in Ireland.
 
Domaine de l'isle 144 now rated 140
Eclair surf 143 now rated 147.

I was hoping Domaine de l'isle would get in.ran on really well in the Becher before disappointing in the eider where it had 11.12.
Took 168 on the machine just in case.
 
If welfare is paramount they should stop 13 yr olds from running.
Blacklion couldnt win it when he was younger.
 
Just to recap my bets so far. Chatham Street Lad is the only non-runner:

Farclas 35/1
Fiddlerontheroof 25/1
Secret Reprieve 25/1 (clever, eh?)
De Rasher Counter 100/1 & 66/1
Cloth Cap 40/1
Anibale Fly 200 (win only, exch)
Two For Gold 140 (ditto)
FOTR (again) 25/1
Cloth Cap 33/1 (more heavily)

Another half a dozen by post-time and that should be me sorted... :p
 
wilsonl said:
That’s worrying, I have positions on 5 and not one is in that list :blink:
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Worrying for both of us mibbe!

I've just gone in again on Two For Gold. I wasn't expecting to get 66/1 at this stage.

(Also, just noticed I had a wee bet on Itchy Feet at 330 (win, exch) but that was only just on the off chance of a change of heart.)
 
My five are:-

Commodore @ 50/1 e/w NRNB & c. 80/1 win only. Looking like he’ll struggle to get in though.

Snow Leopardess @ 16/1. There’s hardly anything not to like other than she may not have the necessary amount in hand. Course form, jumps and stays 3m well.

Enjoy D’allen @ 14/1. Obvious chance and one of a few who could really benefit from the step up in trip.

Any Second Now @ 12/1. Was my first involvement but am now concerned by the fact he’ll be shouldering a big weight with the increase from last year.

Longhouse Poet @ 16/1. Has the right sort of profile of one who was a once classy novice and has shown a return to form recently. Trainer knows what it takes and he seems sure to appreciate a stamina test.
 
Desert Orchid said:
These are the ones, in racecard order from the top along with the current best price (taken directly from the RP card so it might be with some obscure cowboy outfit), I believe to be handicapped to win a decent Saturday handicap.

I want to double-check my figures and look at form beyond last season before committing to putting up ratings, plus there will be some Saturday and Festival performances that will affect some of the figures.

Personally, I like horses that on my ratings have at least a 160 in them, whether that's known form or potential, as I believe that's the kind of class you need for a modern National. The RPR equivalent would probably be around 155. That probably still covers the majority of the field, I accept, but it can often rule out the lightweights that just don't have the class yet figure at under 20/1 in the betting.

Lostintranslation 66/1
Burrows Saint 20/1
Two For Gold 50/1
Chatham Street Lad 40/1
Itchy Feet 66/1
Lord Du Mesnil 66/1
De Rasher Counter 66/1
Anibale Fly 50/1
Enjoy D'allen 20/1
Highland Hunter 50/1
Top Ville Ben 66/1
Class Conti 66/1
Cloth Cap 33/1
Phoenix Way 33/1
Death Duty 33/1
Domaine De L'Isle 100/1
Go Another One 100/1

I didn't go any lower in the card because I don't think anything that far down will make the cut.

No shortage of value if any of them appeal!

I still think if Chatham Street Lad stays and gets round he will be immensely hard to beat.
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The list edited for NRs and current odds as per RP 'Best Odds' facility.

Lostintranslation 100/1
Burrows Saint 22/1
Two For Gold 66/1
Lord Du Mesnil 250/1
De Rasher Counter 40/1
Anibale Fly 66/1
Enjoy D'allen 14/1
Top Ville Ben 80/1
Class Conti 250/1
Cloth Cap 25/1
Phoenix Way 80/1
Death Duty 66/1
Domaine De L'Isle 125/1

I really have to have a think about those 250/1 shots!

Eclair Surf (16/1), Fortescue (40/1), Romain De Senam (150/1) and School Boy Hours (40/1) now make the list too but there's probably more chance of me getting a threesome with Charlotte Hawkins and Jane Mangan than the latter two getting in.
 
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