Aintree 2016

EC1 said:
The going yesterday on my figures [i don't do the National course]...was

Hurdles: -33 len per mile = G/S [soft pl]
Mildmay Chase: -26 len per mile = G/S
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That ties in with the RP analysis: soft on the hurdles track g/s for chases.

Pleased it's drying out. I think Native River has a chance of confirming the very hot Newbury form with the favourite.
 
Euronymous said:
Took 12s about Starchitect in the opener when prices were released. Would have been second in the County with a decent ride, off the same mark.

Buveur D'Air at 3.7 on the machine for the Top. Price diff between him and Limini is just too big

In the w/o fav market in the Melling only two books have priced it. 365 go 2/5 Al Ferof, 9/2 God's Own and 7/1 Vibrato Valtat.
The latter has been a cliff horse for me this season but that price is a rick. He was going really well in the Ryanair before tipping up at the fourth last and ran quite well at this meeting last year post Cheltenham. the 2/5 AF is horrendous.
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yeah that al ferof price is disgusting. he's not the type of horse to be on if he isn't fresh.

buvuer and limini prices now look more correct
 
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Desert Orchid said:
That ties in with the RP analysis: soft on the hurdles track g/s for chases.

Pleased it's drying out. I think Native River has a chance of confirming the very hot Newbury form with the favourite.
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yesterday shows how hard it is to judge the going by eye..many thought it was Good ground after the first race

The speed figures from topspeed should be interesting...their standard time for 15.8f chase = 229.0 which is 14.49 sec per furlong..and for 2m4f chase = 288.0 which is 14.40 sec per furlong. So according to them you can run 4.2f further in a race in quicker per furlong times

Can anyone that follows topspeed explain how this is possible on a track like Aintree..because for an industry reference they are a pointless rating with this sort of error imo.
 
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Saw the second race and I thought it looked very testing and that the winner was the only one who coped with it. Your figures appear to prove me very wrong - won't be the last time either.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Saw the second race and I thought it looked very testing and that the winner was the only one who coped with it. Your figures appear to prove me very wrong - won't be the last time either.
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it shows how hard it is visually Col..DH and Benny posted they thought it was nearer Good..you thought testing...its very difficult unless its extreme i find. Visually i could see they were churning ground up at various places..then other parts it didn't look too bad. Its certainly not dire just proper G/s verring soft in places..as the figures show. The times in the RP look worse due to them running further in each race than set distances due to rails movements. Rails change again today.
 
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from bbc weather

  • Today
  • A drier and brighter day for many today, with sunny spells and isolated showers developing through the day. Turning cloudy from the west, with a band of showery rain arriving into western fringes by the end of the day.
  • Tonight

    Showery rain continuing to spread eastwards across the region overnight, becoming increasingly patchy in nature through the early hours, clearing western counties by dawn
 
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I think Agrapart is the wrong price at 9/1 in the Top Novices.

I know Limini did it very easy at Cheltenham, but the Betfair Hurdle form is surely considerably stronger than the Mares novice form, as both the 2nd and 3rd ran very creditably in Festival handicaps, and Agrapart obviously comes here as a fresh horse.
 
Ever wonder why Altior is being sent over fences?

Could a different Buveur D'Air turn up today and win doing handstands?

Should you take 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle now?

Good luck with Agrapart I agree he'll beat Limini who looks out of her depth here but he won't get near Buveur D'Air:cool:
 
Hopeful for some surprise results today. Cocktails at Dawn could be one, although the ground might not be what they hoped for when saving this one. Yala Enki is a decent priced hope in the conditions. UTPT looks good but I've gone for the Bowen horse which has all the signs of becoming a cliff horse for me, Henri Parry Morgan. Since the tongue tie he has been awesome. Seem likely the going will be suitable and although something to prove at this level certainly cannot be ruled out. I got some restricted bets on before final decs at 33/1. and have topped up at 16/1.
 
Two in the Topham that stand out at decent prices - Dromnea & Eastlake. The latter has cheekpieces on for the 1st time which suggests he's going to be asked to take more of an interest today.

Will back both e/w.
 
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Agrapart's form stands scrutiny from pretty-much every angle, as far as I can tell, as even the defeat behind Yorkhill now looks a sound effort, and his course from is also top-drawer. I'm more worried about Limini (relative term) than I am about Beveuer D'Air, and Agrapart comes here a fresher horse than either of those.

I have a minor concern about quicker ground, though trust Nick Williams would have expected this to be the case, and is unconcerned on that score. I'm quite satisfied that Agrapart will more than out-run odds of 9/1 against this lot.
 
EC1 said:
she may well be no Annie Power but receives the allowance...can't see where she is out of her depth tbh.
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Stick her inthe Supreme full of 150 horses instead of the 123 horse she faced and where would she have finished....
She will have to run 10lbs better than she ever has to win today...possible but unlikely and unbackable at the price

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Tanlic said:
Stick her inthe Supreme full of 150 horses instead of the 123 horse she faced and where would she have finished....
She will have to run 10lbs better than she ever has to win today...possible but unlikely and unbackable at the price

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she didn't beat a 123 horse though..dusky legend is a 136 horse...using ratings of lightly raced improving horses going into the race isn't really representative of the actual form on the day is it?

horses improve..thats what the whole game is about with young hurdlers isn't it?..in that race were many improving hurdlers rated a lot higher than dusky legend's 123..do you really think she is going to be a 123 horse after beating all bar Limini in that race?

she doesn't need to find 10lb..she is about level with buveir with the allowance..its then about which one comes with form on the day and how much limini had in the locker then. She isn't out of her depth in any way i can see
 
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Yes better than Saturday I reckon, I cant wait to see Vautour jumping like he has springs in his boots again.

Two against the field in the Topham will be As De Mee and Village Vic should keep them honest out in front, The weight VV carries may scupper the win but id expect him to grab a first 5 finish, Ill have him in an E/W double with Box Office in the first race.
 
EC1 said:
when it gets to this sort of level i wonder what the point is on here...deary me
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Deary you? I am in a bar in sunny bkk talking to u on a mobile with no figures in front of me......your fav passtime seems to be moaning lol

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Ruby confirms what we knew of Djakadam yesterday "He ran flat, no bounce or fizz, didn't jump aswell either".

Looking forward to the Vautour show today.
 
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