Aintree 2017

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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Whilst he far-and-away the likeliest winner, I really can't bring myself to back Buveur D'Air in the Aintree Hurdle at current odds, but want to have an interest in the race. To that end, I've chanced a few kopeks on Old Guard at 40/1.

He has run with credit under big-weights in both the Lanzarote and the Coral Cup, his stamina is assured, and he should be fine on the forecast ground.
Old Guard fast becoming my new cliff horse so will be joining in lemming like....
 
Labaik has been pulled from the Aintree Goffs sale, and will be pointed at the Punchestown Festival - presumably under current ownership.
 
Took 6s about BDM yesterday and have covered with Eod. Cannot have Cue Card at all now, he wasn't travelling in the Gold Cup before he fell and imo has probably gone.
 
Defi and Buveur look to have exceptionally easy tasks and the double is just short of evens. Rather than trying to find a 3rd or a 4th selection I'd rather increase my stake. So I will stick to the double.

Politologue could get the better of Top Notch who may be found wanting after a very tough race at Cheltenham. Surprised he's running tbh

Cue Card has seen better days but back in this lower grade he's still good enough to win this very ordinary renewal.

Will be laying On The Fringe for plenty. Horse has had his day and is past his best by some way IMO

I backed Dandridge for a place at Cheltenham and Davy Russell delivered the goods.....Finished 2nd in the Red Rum last year...V good place bet again

I thought Paddy Brenna gave Cap Soleil a pig of a ride at Sandown but still manged to win. Had he taken the correct route he'd have won a minute.
Will take some animal to give her weight and a beating
 
Betfred are SP only on the Betfair Bowl....which I find staggering.

Is this their usual MO? I haven't had an account with them for maybe 4-5 years now, and therefore never pay much attention to how they price-up a race.
 
Grand National Course has dried today. It is Good to Soft, Good in places. The Mildmay & Hurdle courses are Good, Good to Soft in places.
 
Hard to see an angle into tomorrows card.

Frodon looks like the value in the 1st but I couldn't confidently put him ahead of the other two. Cue Card is most certainly vulnerable in the Bowl but that's not exactly insightful and the Foxhunters is full of dross (there's one rated 78).
 
I think the Arkle form is some way better than the JLT so I fancy Cloudy Dream to take Top Notch. Otherwise I agree.

I've taken Witness In Court 50/1 ew 4 places with PP in the Red Rum. It strikes me as unusually good value although Romain De Senam is the main fancy in the race.
 
I'm looking to take on Buv D'air today, I think Identity Thief will be the best of the rest dropped back to hurdles and will do the reverse forecast. Each way single in case it gets up.

I'm taking on On the Fringe also, although not fully decided what with yet!
 
Hard to see an angle into tomorrows card.

Frodon looks like the value in the 1st but I couldn't confidently put him ahead of the other two. Cue Card is most certainly vulnerable in the Bowl but that's not exactly insightful and the Foxhunters is full of dross (there's one rated 78).
Frodon would be my normal angle in the race as they deliberately missed Cheltenham, but he's not exactly been shyly campaigned which worries me slightly.
 
and the Foxhunters is full of dross (there's one rated 78).

Actually if I had my way, there wouldn't be any former highly rated horses or professional trainers allowed in this race OR the Cheltenham Foxhunter. It should be for point to pointers to have their moment of glory! That's what both races started out as!
 
Actually if I had my way, there wouldn't be any former highly rated horses or professional trainers allowed in this race OR the Cheltenham Foxhunter. It should be for point to pointers to have their moment of glory! That's what both races started out as!

Agreed
 
From RP

Unowhatimeanharry will miss Stayers Hurdle at Aintree on Saturday. Trainer Harry Fry said: "The ground is drying out a bit too much."
 
Ruby at Limerick today!! Disappointing cards at Aintree today and tomorrow compared to last year; still great racing but Irish trainers title race has affected Aintree big time if you judge it by the highest standards
 
Ruby at Limerick today!! Disappointing cards at Aintree today and tomorrow compared to last year; still great racing but Irish trainers title race has affected Aintree big time if you judge it by the highest standards

Has a single ride at the meeting too, in a pox-bottle of a maiden hurdle - unreal.
 
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i suspected this would happen and mentioned to that effect at the top of the thread. very different dynamic from last year with willie fighting out the trainers title in ireland rather than the uk
 
1.45 - Aintree - Cloudy Dream. 3 pts win. Available at 100/30.
It was officially good ground when Top Notch ran a blinder in finishing one length second to Yorkhill in the JLT Novices Chase at Cheltenham. If he hadn't made a crucial mistake at the second last it may have been very close between the pair. That makes him the one to beat here and he is a thoroughly likeable and genuine individual. He's not very big but he is athletic and doesn't seem phased by fences whatsoever. His low jumping technique, similar to that of stablemate Buveur D'Air, looks good when it's effective but it can catch him out and he can make the odd mistake. His biggest obstacle here may not be the fences but the ground. The surface was heavily watered overnight at Cheltenham (10 mm) and it could be argued that there was a good deal more cut in the surface than the official going suggested. It's likely to be quicker here and he could find himself going a stride faster than ideal. He is still likely to prove hard to beat but he faces a serious rival in the shape of Cloudy Dream. He found Altior six lengths too good in the Arkle at Cheltenham but there was a long way back to the third and, in time, it could turn out to be a performance of note. His profile over his five Chases is one of a progressive horse who is not ground dependent. He has yet to race over this far but he was a winner over an extended 19 furlongs over hurdles and he has finished his races strongly over shorter.

4.05 - Aintree:
Dineur. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 25/1. Paddy Power, Betvictor - 1/5 odds first 4)
Distime. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 25/1. (Betvictor - 1/5 odds first 4)
Top Cat Henry. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 40/1. (Paddy Power - 1/5 odds first 4)
Foxhunter Chases are not normally races that interest us but the normally strong favourites could be worth taking on. On The Fringe finished fourth at Cheltenham and it could be argued he was given a lot to do but he had his chances and his jockey described him as 'a bit laboured'. The winner of the race, Pacha Du Polder, didn't seem to get home here last season but his chances of doing so this time round are enhanced by the better ground. It remains to be seen how much the Cheltenham race has taken out of him and he looks worth opposing. At much bigger prices the trio of Dineur, Distime and Top Cat Henry could get competitive and have chances of making the frame at least, with some firms paying out to four places. Dineur was second in this race last season at 50/1 and warmed up for this by running second in a hunter Chase at Chepstow last month. He seems to like this track and, given the way he took to these fences last season, it looks likely he will attack this race with plenty of zest. He has a good jockey on board who has a profitable 25% strike rate over fences under rules in recent seasons. Distime was fourth in the Topham here last season and has had just the one start since. That saw him finish third in a Hunter Chase at Ludlow last month and, although well beaten, he is likely to come on for that effort and he looks to have been aimed specifically at this race. He has also finished placed here in the Grand Sefton so he has shown the fences hold no fears. All his wins under rules have come on ground softer than good but he has a Point win on quicker so he will not be inconvenienced if the ground does dry out. The booking of Katie Walsh takes the eye and suggests he is not here to just enjoy the sunshine on his back. Top Cat Henry has a bit to find with the best of these on Official ratings but he was sixth in the Grand Sefton and the Topham here last season and has been purchased with this race in mind since. He was an emphatic winner of a Hunter Chase at Musselburgh last month and is partnered by an experienced jockey who is 1 from 2 over fences here in recent seasons.

4.40 - Aintree - Double W's. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.

5.15 - Aintree - Irish Roe. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1.
 
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