Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Desert Orchid said:
LA is a mare and that high rating came as a result of a win in a females' Listed race at Goodwood which she then backed up at odds-on in a weak G3 [females] race. She may have gone wrong after that as she missed her next engagement and then the rest of the season and didn't reappear until last month so well over a year off. Her reappearance was certainly promising but she has appeared to go backwards since then, restricted all the time to F&M races. In fact, she's only ever raced once against colts and that was in a Class 4 juvenile maiden race.

It may be that they've realised she isn't going to win a decent black type race any more so they've been getting her mark down for a big handicap but it looks to me like she's out of love with the game. Having said that, she'll be on my radar purely because of the difference between her old and current ratings plus she'd be a Godolphin-in-a-handicap, which would always interest me, but any interest in a bet will be held off until the day.
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Taken out today, DO.
 
There's too much of a price difference between Laurens and Happily in the QEII.

Yes, Laurens always seems to pull out a bit more when needed but I've a suspicion we haven't seen the best of Happily all year and with the yard over the mid season dip could have a decent end of season.

Roaring Lion is a worthy favourite but has to be taken on at such a short price back over a mile on soft ground and if it wasn't for Enable he'd surely be heading for the BC turf.

The rest are much of a muchness and having horses like Lord Glitters, Beat The Bank and Addeybb (none of whom have won a G1) at a third of the price of dual G1 winner Happily (albeit as a 2yo), who'll also be ideally suited by a mile on this ground, is plain wrong.

Happily e/w, 3 places 1/5 odds @ 16/1
 
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Marble said:
Newcross has been entered in the Irish Ceserewitch a day after its English equivalent on the Sunday. He is certainly higher up the list to get in, No. 45 I believe, so if I had to punt him now I would definitely turn my attention towards Navan. See how they price them up.
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Surprised to see he came home in 7th in the end at Navan out of 20 + horses. I don't think we saw the best of him. He is entered up now in The Irish November Handicap on Sunday over 1M4F where hopefully he will be ridden more prominently. He should be a good ride for somebody. He would have a live chance (if declared).
 
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It's been fairly dry up here recently and although that can change very easily in the hope of no worse than gs ground at Haydock at the end of the month I've taken 17.5 on the machine about Politologue for the Betfair Chase. He's bred to stay 3m and it's possible the extra trip will bring about some improvement. Might Bite would obviously be a massive danger but you can't be afraid of one horse - esp one in the care of a trainer who could bottle out of running him.
 
Marble said:
I havent yet, though Muntadab could place if dropped in trip for Saturday, (he keeps going out like a lightbulb a furlong from home over 7F). I will take a look at yours in a minute, Dan. There is nothing with backing a couple in these races.
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Tracked down the date I thought Ayr Gold Cup was the race for Muntadab. He finished 24th out of 25 horses at Ayr. Then won three races at nice prices afterwards.
 
I am eyeing up backing a horse called Gin Palace this weekend in the big international handicap at Ascot. A big improver last season then carried it on by winning two races from two starts this season. At about 16/1 I might have to back it before final declarations.
 
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Elarqam Saturday. 7/2 acceptable got 4s yesterday. York is his favourite track, he won the race last year and imo can be forgiven his Hardwicke blow out on trip grounds.
 
Marb said:
I am eyeing up backing a horse called Gin Palace this weekend in the big international handicap at Ascot. A big improver last season then carried it on by winning two races from two starts this season. At about 16/1 I might have to back it before final declarations.
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If I fancied it I'd hold off until those final decs. He's currently 27 in a max field of 24. He'll probably get in but not guaranteed although you'd be refunded if it ended up being balloted out.

I've got my eye on a possible surprise package in the race but am holding off until the day for the extra places and odds guarantees. It will almost certainly qualify for the longshot thread but there has to be a strong chance that it won't run.
 
I think that's sound advice, DO.

I see Betfred are dangling a standout price of 20/1. It's tempting but probably wiser to wait for final decs as you say.
 
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There's another horse I fancy entered up in the 2.05 at York called Dawaaween. I was looking at a few form lines the other night and Dawaaween is a horse on the up.

He is priced as second favorite at about 7/1 for Saturday. The trouble is he is also entered on Sunday. So I will have to wait before backing him as well.

I will be looking at two singles on Gin Palace and Dawaaween and maybe an each way double depending on the prices.
 
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Marb said:
There's another horse I fancy entered up in the 2.05 at York called Dawaaween. I was looking at a few form lines the other night and Dawaaween is a horse on the up.

He is priced as second favorite at about 7/1 for Saturday. The trouble is he is also entered on Sunday. So I will have to wait before backing him as well.

I will be looking at two singles on Gin Palace and Dawaaween and maybe an each way double depending on the prices.
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Dawaaween solid second favourite tomorrow. Probably my nap of the day.
 
Had a look at Goodwood last night.

Lennox looks a really solid competitive race. Hard to knock the Space Blues/Safe Voyage form but not sure the track will suit the latter. He won well at Epsom but didn't look in love with the camber. Could be his optimal is a straight track with cut. Dream of Dreams should run well but it's a competitive race. Would be against Limato who has run below form here before.

The WFA scale is overly generous to the 3yos not just in the Goodwood Cup, which is obvious - but also in the Sussex. In the former I'm gonna be putting Santiago in a multiple or two. 15Lbs is daft imo. In the latter for me in a good renewal I'd only favour an older horse if they had a class edge. I reckon they only win terrible renewals - Lightning Spear, Here Comes When, Solow. Frankel faced no proper 3yos when he won not that it would have mattered. I'd be against Mohaather and Circus Maximus on those grounds and at the prices Wichita is the obvious value call. His price diff with Kameko is excessive and Siskin is too short.

The Nassau runs the Sussex close as the race of the week imo. Looks like Tawkeel was kept for this rather than going for the Diane which is unusual for a Frenchie. I'm reluctant to oppose her but Deirdre and Queen Power look too big. Nazeef looks a miler.

Art Power would tempt me in the King George but will they take on Battaash here and at York? Doubt it given the trainer.

Elsewhere Khalifa Sat has nice track form so would be my choice in the Gordon against English King and Tiger Moth
 
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Marb said:
Dawaaween solid second favourite tomorrow. Probably my nap of the day.
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I'm delighted at the generous price he's trading at. I fancy this horse can go close.

Dawaaween will do the talking in a few minutes hopefully.
 
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What did you make of Breathtaking Look's run last week, Euro? She is entered on Friday at Goodwood.
 
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Keeping an eye on whether William Haggas declares Tomorrows Dream for the Dick Hern stakes on Saturday. She won at Glorious Goodwood well. That was ten days after her last run.

On that evidence she will run this Saturday. I like her profile, she's worth a rating in 90s now. Available at prices currently that'd she wouldn't start at if, (it's a very big if), she ran this Saturday.
 
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Marb said:
Keeping an eye on whether William Haggas declares Tomorrows Dream for the Dick Hern stakes on Saturday. She won at Glorious Goodwood well. That was ten days after her last run.

On that evidence she will run this Saturday. I like her profile, she's worth a rating in 90s now. Available at prices currently that'd she wouldn't start at if, (it's a very big if), she ran this Saturday.
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Tomorrows Dream declared with Richard Kingscote on board.

I suppose on a strict form line with Festive Star, Simon Crisfords horse will uphold the form, as he was giving a lot of weight away when beating Tomorrows Dream.

However, Tomorrows Dream might be an even bigger improver having won nicely at Goodwood. In truth they could both get in the places.

An each way bet on Tomorrows Dream is my plan.
 
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Best of luck with that, Marb. TD is rated 90, fully 23lbs behind the highest rated in the field on ORs, 24lbs behind the top on RPRs and 44lbs behind the top on TS ratings.

Huge ask, even to be placed and get black type.

That said, Kingscote is a man to have on your side at Haydock. Not many ride the place better than him.
 
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Cheers for that. There's 9 runners. I wish Veracious wasn't entered, because with 8 runners without the favourite I'd be a lot more confident of Tomorrows Dream placing or winning, although I would also be getting a shorter price.

I feel Tomorrows Dream could be well ahead of her mark. Only time will tell. With a trainer who can bring one through from a handicap to a listed race in Haggas for sure. Also, she did step up from low class five level to class 2/3 level within the space of a fortnight. This bodes well for another step up.
 
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