Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Oxted being pulled from the Sprint Cup has opened it up from an angle perspective. There's not a lot of rain forecast and given g/s on Saturday I would make Dream of Dreams a very false fav. At the prices I'd go with Khaadem who can be marked up on his July Cup fourth as he lost a length or so out the gates. He's 14s in a couple of places and bigger on the machine although only for shrapnel.
 
Euronymous said:
There's not a lot of rain forecast and given g/s on Saturday I would make Dream of Dreams a very false fav.
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Just had a quick look at the race. Maybe I'm unconsciously biased as I was all over DOD like a rash last time but I would have him at even money tops and wouldn't consider looking elsewhere other than in the market without him. I wouldn't be surprised if another wide-margin win happened.
 
I am liking the look of Top Rank in the Group 3 Superior Stakes, (Haydock 1.45). His last run puts him bang there in a Group Three, IMHO.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just had a quick look at the race. Maybe I'm unconsciously biased as I was all over DOD like a rash last time but I would have him at even money tops and wouldn't consider looking elsewhere other than in the market without him. I wouldn't be surprised if another wide-margin win happened.
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Not sure he enjoys the same sort of class advantage here. He's closely matched with Hello Youmzain on Diamond Jubilee form.
 
It's definitely a classier race, Euro, but would any of this field have done to those opponents what DOD did to them. He was quite a big price therefore arguably not expected to win (if at all) by very much. It looked to me like he took a big step forward that day.

The step back in trip is a very slight concern but nothing else.
 
I've had a look at the valuable 12f hcap at Ascot on Saturday. It does look very competitive, as you'd expect, for progressive three-year-olds and nearly all of the candidates in my long list are in the top half of the betting although the prices don't look very generous at this stage.

It looks like Paul Kealy might be putting up the favourite Shandoz in the Weekender tomorrow as he's got the most blue about him this evening but the one I've backed strikes me as a potential mover by the day.

Al Qaqaa (12/1) looks considerably better than his bare form and already has Dane O'Neill booked. His trainer, Haggas, has five in the race with possibilities about them and I can't see him running any more than two or three.

The only other from the yard with a jockey is Favorite Moon (Jason Watson). I'll be surprised if double figures are on offer about Al Qaqaa come Saturday and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up disputing favouritism. I half-expect the ground to be as it (g/s) come Saturday with a couple of dry days followed by a wet one on Friday then dry again by Saturday.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
It's definitely a classier race, Euro, but would any of this field have done to those opponents what DOD did to them.
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No they wouldn't but that's surely because they are 6f horses. Imo DoD is a 7f horse with just the right amount of speed to be competitive over 6f. I think Space Blues would beat him every time over 7, possibly 6.5 but DoD would outspeed him over 6.


I'd have to rewatch but I was on him for the DJ and felt he wasn't given the best of rides. That's a stiffer 6 though.
 
I accept your point about the different trips making comparisons akin to apples and pears but DOD gave BL a 28lbs beating before the latter went on to win in France, earning 114 on RPRs. Even allowing for G-S ground on the day it was hugely impressive to have a field of 100+-rated horses strung out like soft-ground staying chasers.

I accept Saturday's field is deeper and stronger in every department but I would very confidently back DOD in a match against Hello Youmzain at 6f with give. He should have won that Ascot race and was going clear in the strides after the line. I would also have confidently backed DOD to take care of Oxted had it turned up.

I like Space Blues too but would back DOD to take care of him as well over seven.

I think DOD is the only genuine G1 horse in Saturday's race and if he can stay closer than he did at Ascot he'll win by daylight.

Just my opinion, obviously.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had a look at the valuable 12f hcap at Ascot on Saturday. It does look very competitive, as you'd expect, for progressive three-year-olds and nearly all of the candidates in my long list are in the top half of the betting although the prices don't look very generous at this stage.

It looks like Paul Kealy might be putting up the favourite Shandoz in the Weekender tomorrow as he's got the most blue about him this evening but the one I've backed strikes me as a potential mover by the day.

Al Qaqaa (12/1) looks considerably better than his bare form and already has Dane O'Neill booked. His trainer, Haggas, has five in the race with possibilities about them and I can't see him running any more than two or three.

The only other from the yard with a jockey is Favorite Moon (Jason Watson). I'll be surprised if double figures are on offer about Al Qaqaa come Saturday and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up disputing favouritism. I half-expect the ground to be as it (g/s) come Saturday with a couple of dry days followed by a wet one on Friday then dry again by Saturday.
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I've gone in again at 12/1 which, overall, makes it pretty lumpy. Bet365 are going the price along with betfair and PP but I'm seriously restricted with PP and betfair is a sister company so I prefer to use another firm.

It's gone blue in a number of other places and is more generally single-figure odds, which I'd anticipated.
 
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Marb said:
I am liking the look of Top Rank in the Group 3 Superior Stakes, (Haydock 1.45). His last run puts him bang there in a Group Three, IMHO.
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Will he go on soft? The front two from that awful Group 3 at Goodwood head the market and are begging to be taken on.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Al Qaqaa (12/1) looks considerably better than his bare form and already has Dane O'Neill booked. His trainer, Haggas, has five in the race with possibilities about them and I can't see him running any more than two or three.

The only other from the yard with a jockey is Favorite Moon (Jason Watson). I'll be surprised if double figures are on offer about Al Qaqaa come Saturday and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up disputing favouritism.
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Favorite Moon doesn't run and Watson switches to A Star Above. Haggas only has these two runners and the ones he took out were, from memory, shorter than Al Qaqaa the other day.

I have a saver in mind but am holding off until Saturday to see if it qualifies for the longshot thread.
 
Irish Champion:

Ghaiyyath - 6/4. Opposable. Had a busy season not long since Juddmonte
Magical - 11/4. Thought was average at York. Short price, terrible renewal last year
Alpine Star 6/1- Matron a possibility. Otherwise likely winner
Lord North 7/1 - Meh
Fancy Blue 11/1 - surely kept to her own sex with so many races of that kind here and abroad in Sep/Oct
Siskin 11/1 - miler
Sottsass 12/1 - the value. A stiff 10f on not terrible ground is his optimum. Good value. Would worry won't go
 
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Euronymous said:
Will he go on soft? The front two from that awful Group 3 at Goodwood head the market and are begging to be taken on.
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I haven't a clue. I've had a second look at the race and it looks open enough to me, I might give Top Rank a miss. Too competative.
 
Marb said:
Barbill could run this Sunday in the listed race at York. Oisin Murphy booked to ride.
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Danzan could frank the form of Barbills last win tomorrow at Haydock, (3:20). It would be a good form boost for Barbill if Danzan won.
 
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Euronymous said:
Irish Champion:

Ghaiyyath - 6/4. Opposable. Had a busy season not long since Juddmonte
Magical - 11/4. Thought was average at York. Short price, terrible renewal last year
Alpine Star 6/1- Matron a possibility. Otherwise likely winner
Lord North 7/1 - Meh
Fancy Blue 11/1 - surely kept to her own sex with so many races of that kind here and abroad in Sep/Oct
Siskin 11/1 - miler
Sottsass 12/1 - the value. A stiff 10f on not terrible ground is his optimum. Good value. Would worry won't go
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Siskin runs on Sunday in France taking on Pinatubo as the ground apparently isn't too soft.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've had a look at the valuable 12f hcap at Ascot on Saturday. It does look very competitive, as you'd expect, for progressive three-year-olds and nearly all of the candidates in my long list are in the top half of the betting although the prices don't look very generous at this stage.

It looks like Paul Kealy might be putting up the favourite Shandoz in the Weekender tomorrow as he's got the most blue about him this evening but the one I've backed strikes me as a potential mover by the day.

Al Qaqaa (12/1) looks considerably better than his bare form and already has Dane O'Neill booked. His trainer, Haggas, has five in the race with possibilities about them and I can't see him running any more than two or three.

The only other from the yard with a jockey is Favorite Moon (Jason Watson). I'll be surprised if double figures are on offer about Al Qaqaa come Saturday and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up disputing favouritism. I half-expect the ground to be as it (g/s) come Saturday with a couple of dry days followed by a wet one on Friday then dry again by Saturday.
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I've gone in yet again at 10/1. It's shorter (8/1 tops) and blue everywhere else now.

I cannot fathom why this one isn't disputing favouritism at worst. Al Qaqaa was 5/4f to beat Cepheus last time at Goodwood but the form book comments list a litany of reasons for him not to have run his race on the day and he’s 7lbs better off with Cepheus who is shorter in the market. Moomba was second in that race but Al Qaqaa had hammered him by eight lengths the time before at levels and only had to concede him 9lbs when they met again. Moomba got within half a length of Cepheus. If this doesn't win it will hurt my confidence as much as my pocket but I've at least had the good sense to go each-way just in case there's a proper Group horse elsewhere in the race.
 
Marb said:
Siskin runs on Sunday in France taking on Pinatubo as the ground apparently isn't too soft.
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Interesting that Wm Buick doesn't travel for the ride, but Ryan Moore does: taken 9/2 Circus Maximus as RM reckons he's worth quarantine for.
Also taken 5/1, HILLS.
 
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Euronymous said:
Will he go on soft? The front two from that awful Group 3 at Goodwood head the market and are begging to be taken on.
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Ill probably rue the decision, but I have taken on the favourite with the well backed Kinross. As I alluded to in another post, I have jumped ship with Top Rank.
 
Strange ride Khaloosy got there. I said to Mrs O at halfway, "If I didn't know any better I'd say Khaloosy was being ridden like a non-trier."

I'll wait and see what comments emerge from connections or the jockey but maybe not Crowley's finest hour or maybe the ground was just too soft.

I went very high with the Clipper Logistics but even higher with the Britannia...
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had a look at the valuable 12f hcap at Ascot on Saturday. It does look very competitive, as you'd expect, for progressive three-year-olds and nearly all of the candidates in my long list are in the top half of the betting although the prices don't look very generous at this stage.

It looks like Paul Kealy might be putting up the favourite Shandoz in the Weekender tomorrow as he's got the most blue about him this evening but the one I've backed strikes me as a potential mover by the day.

Al Qaqaa (12/1) looks considerably better than his bare form and already has Dane O'Neill booked. His trainer, Haggas, has five in the race with possibilities about them and I can't see him running any more than two or three.

The only other from the yard with a jockey is Favorite Moon (Jason Watson). I'll be surprised if double figures are on offer about Al Qaqaa come Saturday and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up disputing favouritism. I half-expect the ground to be as it (g/s) come Saturday with a couple of dry days followed by a wet one on Friday then dry again by Saturday.
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That was a painful watch. I'm gonna be hurting for quite a while. I also had it in a double with Khaloosy. I think I'll book up a Japanese POW camp for a holiday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just had a quick look at the race. Maybe I'm unconsciously biased as I was all over DOD like a rash last time but I would have him at even money tops and wouldn't consider looking elsewhere other than in the market without him. I wouldn't be surprised if another wide-margin win happened.
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Not as wide a margin as I'd hoped but at the 7/2 to a lumpy bet snaffled this morning he's covered all the day's outgoings so I can enjoy the remaining TV races!

Relief the main emotion right now, though, after the Al Qaqaa caca show.
 
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The brother phoned me to discuss Al Qaqaa. I hadn't seen the race live, just the final furlong or so. He asked me what I thought of the ride AQ got but I couldn't offer an opinion. I've since managed to have a look. I can't help thinking he's gone far too fast in front. The one that moved up early to help force the pace (My Frankel) has dropped right out and the principals have come from the back. Even the Gosden horse which tracked the pace (Grand Bazaar) then moved ahead of AQ in the straight has dropped back in the final furlong.

The very fact that Cepheus has finished a close second reinforces my belief that AQ should have won. I was confident I didn't have to worry about him.

It will be interesting to see if there are any sectionals anywhere for the race.
 
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