Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Looks like Kameko is heading for the Prix Jacques Le Marois next weekend ground permitting. Palace Pier will be tough to beat but the current 10s on Kameko looks big.
 
I was quite impressed by Lucky Vega yesterday. I think 16/1 and thereabouts might be quite generous for the 2000G.

There's a case for rating it 118p, pretty good for this stage of the season with the strong prospect of better still to come and he's bred for the mile.
 
I think Spanish Mission has a favs chance in the Geoffrey Freer but his trainer also has Almania in the race and he's booked Spencer for that horse which makes me think SM maybe won't run. Will monitor.

Magical is winking at me for the International, she seems sure to place if allowed to participate. Yes, they could run in the YO now Enable heads to Kempton instead but surely they could leave it for Love.
 
I like the look of the recently well backed (anti post) William Bligh in the Denford Stakes. I wasn't sure if he'd run, given he was beaten at short odds in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood last time. However, I checked oddschecker: He is now 4/1 from 8/1 so on that evidence he will be a runner.

I almost think at 4/1 he is too short to back at this stage. God knows what will be declared on Thursday I suppose.

I also plan to back Sea Of Faith in the Geoffrey Freer. Hopefully one of us will get it right, Euro.
 
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Golden Apollo in the St Wilfred anyone? He looks to be coming into top form.

I have found the third horse for my trixie/patent. Hopefully all three get declared.
 
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Marb said:
Golden Apollo in the St Wilfred anyone? He looks to be coming into top form.

I have found the third horse for my trixie/patent. Hopefully all three get declared.
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The GSW has been quite kind to me down through the millennia so I'm hoping for more luck.

It won't be my only bet in the race but I've just taken 16/1 Hyperfocus. Good course form and now very well handicapped. Should probably be a single-figure price so happy to get in early in anticipation of a gamble.

Won here over CD last summer off 90 (GS) then second in the consolation for this off 89 (but actually ran away with the race on his side - Sft), then a neck second off 94 in a £100k race at York (Sft) and finished the season on 97.

Three quiet runs this season see him back down to 88. I was hoping he'd be one for the longshot thread but it doesn't look like happening. They'll almost certainly be watering this week ahead of the meeting but whether it will be enough to help him I'm not sure. I'm hoping to be able to lay off at shorter.
 
Frankel said:
Looks like Kameko is heading for the Prix Jacques Le Marois next weekend ground permitting. Palace Pier will be tough to beat but the current 10s on Kameko looks big.
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Pretty much confirmed for the Juddmonte now. I think he's overpriced at 11/2. I would have him shorter than Lord North for sure and whilst the fav is top class I feel no matter how good a horse is from that operation there's always a possibility of a poor run in a way there isn't from a high class Gosden/Ballydoyle inmate.
 
Marb said:
I like the look of the recently well backed (anti post) William Bligh in the Denford Stakes. I wasn't sure if he'd run, given he was beaten at short odds in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood last time. However, I checked oddschecker: He is now 4/1 from 8/1 so on that evidence he will be a runner.

I almost think at 4/1 he is too short to back at this stage. God knows what will be declared on Thursday I suppose.

I also plan to back Sea Of Faith in the Geoffrey Freer. Hopefully one of us will get it right, Euro.
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William Bligh confirmed to run. He'll do for me.

I think I am now in the Tritonic camp in the Geoffrey Freer.
 
Breathtaking Look runs in the Hungerford.

I like her a lot she is very genuine but maybe just a bit too one dimensional at this level. She wants to make all every time so we know she'll try that again. I suppose at 10/1 it's an each way price.
 
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Euronymous said:
Pretty much confirmed for the Juddmonte now. I think he's overpriced at 11/2. I would have him shorter than Lord North for sure and whilst the fav is top class I feel no matter how good a horse is from that operation there's always a possibility of a poor run in a way there isn't from a high class Gosden/Ballydoyle inmate.
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Agree. I too would have him 2nd fav.
 
i've had a small interest in King Leonidas for the Cambridgehire at 14s. His trainer has a fantastic record in the race obviously and has a habit of winning it with future pattern race winners to boot. The selection was super impressive over a mile at headquarters in June and the second (well beat getting 7lbs) has been competitive in handicaps off a mark in the mid 90s since suggesting KL isn't badly in off 102. He's out of a Galileo mare which suggests that running in the Jersey was a strange choice after Newmarket and the Cambs trip is bound to suit him much better. Obviously I've no idea if the race is a confirmed target but I thought it was worth a small bet at the price.
 
I can't be sure no but KL fits the profile of his other good winners like Halling and Pipedreamer and obv Lord North

Al Ruffaa - only ran over 7f
Hypothetical - no real form
Tenbury Wells - 3 yo rated 87 so won't get in
Lord Tennyson- has been poor this year. The good horses I mention all had good recent form
 
Only Hills offering odds according to oddschecker for the Ayr Gold Cup at the moment.

I think Mick Channon has a very good horse on his hands with Barbill who looks like a much improved horse this season having been gelded. The beating he gave Kimifive worked out really well, and even his last win at Chelmsford beating Danzan looks solid on paper as Danzan has form with a few horses from Hamilton that look ideal Ayr Silver/Bronze Cup types.

Barbill is definately on my radar for an anti post bet in the Ayr Gold Cup at what William Hill currently quote as 33/1. He's number 11 in the list so won't have a problem making the cut. He has disappointed in one or two of these big field handicaps in the past, but as I say, he's 2/3 this season which is a big improvement of form and he's beaten some good horses to boot.

Barbill anyone?
 
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Far too early for me to be thinking about the race, especially with its only being worth a fraction of its normal value.

Wouldn't touch anything ante-post right now unless I had inside info.

Which I don't.

But I'd look at the likes of Bielsa (16/1) who was sent off 5/1f for the Wokingham so clearly much more was expected, or Koropick (33/1) who has been off for a couple of years but has been allowed a big drop in the ratings for it.

And Hills is the only firm with prices at oddschecker so unlikely to be erring on the generous side.
 
I won't have a bean on Barbill until a few more firms price the race up. I do think 33s underestimates his chance a bit though.
 
Outsider said:
I've took a bit of that 33s Marb.
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Ah right best of luck then, Outsider.

Correction on my write up, Barbill beat Danzan at Chester, not Chelmsford. He was giving Danzan a 10lb in weight.

Danzan is a horse who had a good improver (Ayr gold/silver/bronze cup entry), Edgewood, back in third at Hamilton.

I would be a bit surprised if the high Street bookies were offering much above 20/1 on Barbill when they price it up in the coming weeks. It seems a good price at present but a long way to go.
 
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I recently did my provisional trawl through this Saturdays t.v racing. I was surprised as I wasn't expecting to fancy many horses. Increasingly I am not paying that much attention to low grade midweek races. This Saturdays televised races are from Goodwood, Newmarket and Windsor.

Early ideas - Duke Of Hazzard looks to hold a very good chance in the celebration mile in Goodwood 3.35. His third placing to Mohaather earlier this season looks like red hot form. I suppose one has to put a line through the last run though. He's 7/2 or thereabouts on the early show, probably best to hold out for a better price nearer the day after declarations.

Sinjaari did me and Danny a good turn in the John Smiths handicap at York the last day. I like the look of the horse now possibly stepped up to group three class in Windsor 3.15.

The horse he beat that day at York, Certain Lad, has franked the form really well so at current odds of 7/1, if declared tomorrow, that's a price that a few of us would have a play at.

Roger Varian trains an improving filly with a progressive profile, who could be worth a rating higher than what she is currently rated imo, having progressed nicely through the handicaps. She's called Believe In Love (Newmarket, 3:20) and might be the bet once more now taking in another handicap.

Fail to prepare, prepare to fail and all that! :)

Declared runners...

Goodwood

1.50 Thank you Next (e/w)

3.35 Duke Of Hazzard (NB)

Newmarket

2.05 Brad The Brief (e/w)

3.20 Believe In Love

Windsor

3.15 Sinjaari (Nap)
 
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Marb said:
Early ideas - Duke Of Hazzard looks to hold a very good chance in the celebration mile in Goodwood 3.35. His third placing to Mohaather earlier this season looks like red hot form. I suppose one has to put a line through the last run though. He's 7/2 or thereabouts on the early show, probably best to hold out for a better price nearer the day after declarations.
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I backed him at Salisbury. He never got any cover and was too keen. Easily forgiven however not sure about the likely ground. It's soft gs in places now and rain is forecast today and tomorrow. That's against Regal Realilty and Benbatl also. I've had a little tickle on Century Dream who does act on give.
 
Copied and pasted from the York thread, to add to my other Guineas AP punts Battleground (16/1) and Lucky Vega (18+/1):

I've just taken Miss Amulet at 50/1 for the 1000 Guineas.

There has to be a chance that she won't stay and they seem to be talking about her in terms of being a sprinter but there's stamina back in her pedigree especially in the female line and they might train her for the just to see.

According to my figures she put up a G1 time in winning the Lowther at York last week, 2lbs faster than Montatham (raised to 109) in the Clipper Logistics, 18lbs faster than Happy Romance (raised to 97) in the big sales race and 31lbs faster than Ataser who was raised to 86 for winning the nursery.

Those figures are exclusive of any wfa consideration.

If she comes back over and wins the Cheveley Park, which is entirely likely with that rating, she won't be 50/1 whether she's targeting the race or not.

I'm half-expecting her not to run in the Guineas, which brings its obvious risk, but if she progresses further at Newmarket they might feel they have to at least give it a go.
 
Believe In Love (3.20) runs in the handicap at Newmarket. Probably the most sensible option.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Copied and pasted from the York thread, to add to my other Guineas AP punts Battleground (16/1) and Lucky Vega (18+/1):

I've just taken Miss Amulet at 50/1 for the 1000 Guineas.

There has to be a chance that she won't stay and they seem to be talking about her in terms of being a sprinter but there's stamina back in her pedigree especially in the female line and they might train her for the just to see.

According to my figures she put up a G1 time in winning the Lowther at York last week, 2lbs faster than Montatham (raised to 109) in the Clipper Logistics, 18lbs faster than Happy Romance (raised to 97) in the big sales race and 31lbs faster than Ataser who was raised to 86 for winning the nursery.

Those figures are exclusive of any wfa consideration.

If she comes back over and wins the Cheveley Park, which is entirely likely with that rating, she won't be 50/1 whether she's targeting the race or not.

I'm half-expecting her not to run in the Guineas, which brings its obvious risk, but if she progresses further at Newmarket they might feel they have to at least give it a go.
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Blimey! No wonder my banker bet Sacred had a hard time of it.
 
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