Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Desert Orchid said:
The brother phoned me to discuss Al Qaqaa. I hadn't seen the race live, just the final furlong or so. He asked me what I thought of the ride AQ got but I couldn't offer an opinion. I've since managed to have a look. I can't help thinking he's gone far too fast in front. The one that moved up early to help force the pace (My Frankel) has dropped right out and the principals have come from the back. Even the Gosden horse which tracked the pace (Grand Bazaar) then moved ahead of AQ in the straight has dropped back in the final furlong.

The very fact that Cepheus has finished a close second reinforces my belief that AQ should have won. I was confident I didn't have to worry about him.

It will be interesting to see if there are any sectionals anywhere for the race.
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They were probably the right tactics since he’d bowled along in front for his only victory. It was only a small field, though, and it seems the tactics were a bit overcooked by Dane O’Neill this time. I’ve never had him as highly rated as you as he has always seemed a bit weak in the finish - he did power away from what was left in his winning run (or seem to) but, otherwise, he has seemed to struggle.
 
barjon said:
They were probably the right tactics since he’d bowled along in front for his only victory. It was only a small field, though, and it seems the tactics were a bit overcooked by Dane O’Neill this time. I’ve never had him as highly rated as you as he has always seemed a bit weak in the finish - he did power away from what was left in his winning run (or seem to) but, otherwise, he has seemed to struggle.
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Thanks, Barjon. I wouldn't have a problem with any horse I back making the running. In fact, I'm usually happier seeing them at or near the front. More often than not (in my opinion) it's a sign they're definitely off.

When Al Qaqaa made all at Nwm the sectionals confirmed that he'd got it easy in front and he was the fastest finisher in the race.

When he ran at Gwd, the form book analysis noted:

Al Qaqaa was impressive when hammering Moomba by 8l over 1m4f at Newmarket, but the drop in trip on a different type of track didn't look likely to suit and, having not got off to the quickest of starts, he found himself further back than ideal. His rider was alert to the fact that stamina his is asset and moved him up past halfway, but he was readily done for speed as the first two went past. This track didn't look to suit either and he can show this running to be all wrong.
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So, slow start, perhaps moved too fast mid-race and probably paid for it late on. I'm not a good judge of whether a horse is acting well or otherwise on a given track but the analyst in this case comes across as pretty convinced the horse is a lot better than he showed here.

ATR has a sectional analysis of the race and it suggests the first furlong wasn't fast but after that they've gone too fast through the next three furlongs. It looks like O'Neill has tried to ease off a bit after that but the pace picks up again, presumably when My Frankel makes his forward move. AQ was already slowing down three furlongs out and even the principals were just not as slow as the others in the final stages. Nothing in the race got an efficiency grade of better than D while AQ's was F. In O'Neill's case, for Fanny.

I'll forgive both O'Neill and the horse this one. O'Neill is a useful jockey to have on your side, especially for Hamdans. AQ goes into the tracker as I want to recoup the losses incurred on this run. I'm pretty sure he'll oblige and if the handicapper decides to drop him a few pounds so much the better. I really thought I was punting a 100+ horse off 88 so that's how I'll keep punting him until he proves me wrong. Shandoz (89) will probably go up about 7lbs to 96 so that illustrates the kind of margin I thought I had with AQ and my rationale for getting so heavily involved at double-figure odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks, Barjon. I wouldn't have a problem with any horse I back making the running. In fact, I'm usually happier seeing them at or near the front. More often than not (in my opinion) it's a sign they're definitely off.

When Al Qaqaa made all at Nwm the sectionals confirmed that he'd got it easy in front and he was the fastest finisher in the race.

When he ran at Gwd, the form book analysis noted:



So, slow start, perhaps moved too fast mid-race and probably paid for it late on. I'm not a good judge of whether a horse is acting well or otherwise on a given track but the analyst in this case comes across as pretty convinced the horse is a lot better than he showed here.

ATR has a sectional analysis of the race and it suggests the first furlong wasn't fast but after that they've gone too fast through the next three furlongs. It looks like O'Neill has tried to ease off a bit after that but the pace picks up again, presumably when My Frankel makes his forward move. AQ was already slowing down three furlongs out and even the principals were just not as slow as the others in the final stages. Nothing in the race got an efficiency grade of better than D while AQ's was F. In O'Neill's case, for Fanny.

I'll forgive both O'Neill and the horse this one. O'Neill is a useful jockey to have on your side, especially for Hamdans. AQ goes into the tracker as I want to recoup the losses incurred on this run. I'm pretty sure he'll oblige and if the handicapper decides to drop him a few pounds so much the better. I really thought I was punting a 100+ horse off 88 so that's how I'll keep punting him until he proves me wrong. Shandoz (89) will probably go up about 7lbs to 96 so that illustrates the kind of margin I thought I had with AQ and my rationale for getting so heavily involved at double-figure odds.
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You make a convincing case, Desert. Be interesting to see where he goes next.
 
Looks like Sottsass is going for the ICS. Rouget was interviewed on atr yesterday and whilst he struggled with pronouncing Leopardstown it seems clear that's where they are going. I think 12/1 is huge. He's a Group 1 horse that's been running in soft ground/no pace Group 2/3s all year.
 
Moss Gill is 11/4 or thereabouts for the listed Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster on Wednesday after his third placing to Battaash the last day. I reckon he is a really worthy favourite myself. Maybe Acklam Express can grab the runner up spot. I can see myself playing the above two in a reverse forecast, possibly trying to add one or two others in for a reverse tricast.
 
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I also fancy Mubtasimah on Wednesday, who is currently second favourite for the Sceptre Stakes. She won three races on the bounce in 2019, including first time out. Mubtasimah also won first time out this season in a listed race before flopping on the all weather in early July.

Now coming to Doncaster after a near enough 60 day break bodes really well for Mubtasimah, as she has now won twice after a break. A win double on Moss Gill and Mubtasimah on Wednesday is the plan.

At current odds the double pays about 14/1.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've just taken Miss Amulet at 50/1 for the 1000 Guineas.

There has to be a chance that she won't stay and they seem to be talking about her in terms of being a sprinter but there's stamina back in her pedigree especially in the female line and they might train her for the just to see.

According to my figures she put up a G1 time in winning the Lowther at York last week, 2lbs faster than Montatham (raised to 109) in the Clipper Logistics, 18lbs faster than Happy Romance (raised to 97) in the big sales race and 31lbs faster than Ataser who was raised to 86 for winning the nursery.

Those figures are exclusive of any wfa consideration.

If she comes back over and wins the Cheveley Park, which is entirely likely with that rating, she won't be 50/1 whether she's targeting the race or not.

I'm half-expecting her not to run in the Guineas, which brings its obvious risk, but if she progresses further at Newmarket they might feel they have to at least give it a go.
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Bought by Coolmore...

:ninja:

(I've been unable to resist another wee nibble at 50s.)
 
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Some thoughts:
Alpine Star is interesting at 7/2 or 4s at a place for the Sun Chariot. Ultimate target given the owner is probably the Breeders Cup so it makes more sense to go for an easier race at Newmarket rather than a hot looking l'Opera.
Golden Horde 7/1 for Champion Sprint. Thought he ran a cracker from a bad draw at Haydock DoD tends to always fine one too good at Ascot, Space Blues Foret bound and Osted is a summer ground horse.

Looking ahead to the Jumps Chacun at 12s for the Tingle Creek and Allaho 14s for KG are winking at me. Does Willie bring either over?
 
I took 16/1 Stone Of Destiny for the Ayr Gold Cup immediately after Saturday's Portland win. I think I put SOD (such appropriate initials!) up on the longsot thread for one of the big handicaps earlier in the season on its old form and it looked right back to its very best the other day under different tactics and the penalty gets him in.

I had a quick look today to see if I could steal any other value and have landed on Another Batt at 20/1. He'll definitely make the cut and the trainer likes targeting the race so if this is the aim then he might be value. He won a good 7f Meydan handicap in 2019 off 104 and a few runs later would probably have been second or third with a clear run in the Lincoln off 107. He has since disappointed and moved stables a couple of times bringing about a drop in the ratings to 93 but first time out in August for his current trainer he won nicely enough in an admittedly modest 6f race. He's up 3lbs for it which ensures he gets in and a run down the park last time (jockey claims it hung the whole way) keeps it under the radar. If the trainer has him back to his old form he's handicapped to win an average renewal off 96, a mark that in a normal year would probably only make the silver cup race.

At any rate, it strikes me that if the trainer rates it word could get out and a gamble could develop. If not, then 20s is a decent enough punt.

I still think Summerghand might be the winner but I can back him nearer the day.
 
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I've had a pop at the Cesarewitch - Leoncavallo 16/1

Now with David Pipe, the trainer appears to have sweetened him up and, once rated 145 over hurdles, he'd have a favourite's chance if he could translate that ability back to the Flat off 83. I can't really see him making the cut off that mark so they might try to pick up a penalty beforehand although I'm pretty sure marks in the 80s have got in recently.
 
Not necessarily ante-post now that the final decs are out but without studying the race I've taken Wise Counsel for the Ayr Gold Cup (14/1 and if better comes up through the day I'll take it too).

Summerghand has been my main fancy since he won the Stewards' Cup. O'Meara is mob-handed in the race but has taken the horse out yet Tudhope doesn't ride any of the others. It looks like he's been talked into Wise Counsel by the Clipper Logistics people who own the horse. That's just speculation on my part but if it's true I can't see double-figure odds lasting the day and that's part of the gamble. I'm anticipating a price collapse. And Cox is no mean target trainer. With just two runs this season, it looks a year-long plot.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had a pop at the Cesarewitch - Leoncavallo 16/1

Now with David Pipe, the trainer appears to have sweetened him up and, once rated 145 over hurdles, he'd have a favourite's chance if he could translate that ability back to the Flat off 83. I can't really see him making the cut off that mark so they might try to pick up a penalty beforehand although I'm pretty sure marks in the 80s have got in recently.
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I've doubled this with Tenbury Wells 14/1 in the Cambridgeshire.
 
Lucander in the Cambridgeshire.

The race he was third in on June 24th at Haydock was a good run. He was behind future winners Strait Of Hormuz and Angel Power, (the two of those now 13lb and 18lb higher up in the weights than they were this day). The form looks bombproof, even the fourth home franked it by subsequently winning.

Lucander is coming in this race on the back of a good win at York when upped in trip, perhaps an end to end searching gallop will suit now, and at just the 9lbs higher than when third at Haydock, he could be still ahead of his mark. I'll shuffle on what I can at 16s.
 
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Marb said:
Lucander in the Cambridgeshire.

The race he was third in on June 24th at Haydock was a good run. He was behind future winners Strait Of Hormuz and Angel Power, (those two now 18lb and 13lb higher up in the weights than they were at Haydock). The form looks bombproof, even the fourth home franked the form by subsequently winning. Lucander is coming in this race on the back of a good win at York when upped in trip, perhaps an end to end searching gallop will suit now, and at just the 9lbs higher than when third at Haydock, he could be still ahead of his mark. I'll shuffle on what I can at 16s.
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Definite long/short-list material but I reckon his price is about right for now. Yes, he's ahead of his mark but in a race like the Cambridgeshire at least 90% of the runners will be ahead of their mark. It's all a question of by how much.

Then there's the draw and pace to think about plus whether the weather holds or changes.

I would be tempted to hold off for the extra places and maybe even longer odds on Saturday morning.

Edit - another I have nibbled at is Balgair 66/1 to 5places. A wide margin winner the other day he carries a 4lbs penalty to make the cut but if the weights go up just 2lbs he'll be officially 4lbs well in compared to his new mark.

The difficulty with him is that that win was in an amateurs' race and they can be very misleading because of poor jockeyship but the time was pretty fast too and it was a CD race so I'm very hopeful that a good claimer and a strong pace will be what he needs and in terms of raw weight he'll be carrying about 30lbs less than last week.

As I say, the form is probably unreliable but the official handicapper put him up 8lbs and it may be that he's just come good at a late stage. At the price, I can pay a little to find out.
 
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I've taken another pop at the Cambridgeshire.

I was holding off on this one until Saturday morning hoping the price would lengthen and I could get more places but Paul Kealy includes it in his bets for the race so there's a chance the price will contract through the morning today.

Tulfarris 40/1 is too big on my figures. The problem with this one, for me, is that his form isn't in handicaps so whether it will translate across I don't really know but the figures are definitely there and they seem strong. He's very near the top of my ratings and trained by a man who knows how to land one.

He's just one I want onside at a price.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
...and in terms of raw weight he'll be carrying about 30lbs less than last week.
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This is incorrect. That weight difference was my getting mixed up with the runner-up. Balgair was carrying 11-0 rather than 10-2 so we're looking at 42lbs lower off 8st.

All this is bearing in mind that adding weight to a horse can slow it down but there comes a point when taking weight off doesn't make it go any faster. Still, last week's time was one of the fastest on the day, not bad considering the weight carried.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Edit - another I have nibbled at is Balgair 66/1 to 5places. A wide margin winner the other day he carries a 4lbs penalty to make the cut but if the weights go up just 2lbs he'll be officially 4lbs well in compared to his new mark.
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Now 33/1 tops and as short as 16/1 with PP/Betfair. I might lay the stake off it shortens and have a bet to no risk.
 
Marb said:
Lucander in the Cambridgeshire.

The race he was third in on June 24th at Haydock was a good run. He was behind future winners Strait Of Hormuz and Angel Power, (the two of those now 13lb and 18lb higher up in the weights than they were this day). The form looks bombproof, even the fourth home franked it by subsequently winning.

Lucander is coming in this race on the back of a good win at York when upped in trip, perhaps an end to end searching gallop will suit now, and at just the 9lbs higher than when third at Haydock, he could be still ahead of his mark. I'll shuffle on what I can at 16s.
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Another second for me today, beaten by Majestic Dawn who I fancied for the race last season!
 
Marb said:
Another second for me today, beaten by Majestic Dawn who I fancied for the race last season!
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Good run today and beaten by a seriously well-handicapped horse, one I looked at at least twice before deciding against including it. I put up Lucander at Goodwood but the stable is in much better form now. I'm sure I backed Majestic Dawn last year too, having put him up at Royal Ascot earlier in the season. I was looking through my records for last year's race but it was about this time last year I thought I was going blind and the files stop at the Ayr Gold cup meeting.
 
There's no prices for the Challenge Cup at Ascot on Saturday yet.

However, a horse I backed the last day it won, called Brad The Brief, for trainer Tom Dascombe is entered by the looks of it. I was impressed by how he dug deep to fend of Summerghand that last day in that listed race, when he was only receiving three pounds, but still beat the 112 rated Summerghand well enough, staying on at the finish when looking like a horse who would appreciate an extra furlong.

He's gone up 8lb to 104, but still plenty ahead of his official mark, with a win strike rate in a limited career thus far of over 50 % (4/7).

So you can tell I'm all over this horse for Saturday, I await thee prices.....:)
 
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Entered in John Guest stakes, the Group 3 at 3.40 at Ascot instead.
 
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I took 11/1 River Nymph for the big handicap on Saturday in anticipation of the odds halving through the week. A serious curve animal.
 
Revich was unfancied at 25/1 the last day when 5th of 16 runners at this track Ascot behind Documenting. He was only beaten a length and three quarters, it looked like an encouraging run before a bigger race like this one coming up on Saturday.

He's been much better this season, with two consecutive wins in first time visors before his last run. I'm tempted to call him a 'curve horse' but I won't pinch Desert Orchids phrases without giving him credit beforehand. Anyways, Revich I'm keen on. Everything looks right for a career best.
 
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