Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

I'm quite sweet on Reshoun in the Ceserewitch this Saturday for Ian Williams and Marwan Koukash.

It's an open race but it must be more than a coincidence that Reshoun won his final race in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019. His win over Rajinsky a couple of starts ago reads well. We should put a line through his last run. He's deadly at the the end of a season. I just wonder who will ride him, (if its Jim Crowley he won't start 25/1).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've had a pop at the Cesarewitch - Leoncavallo 16/1

Now with David Pipe, the trainer appears to have sweetened him up and, once rated 145 over hurdles, he'd have a favourite's chance if he could translate that ability back to the Flat off 83. I can't really see him making the cut off that mark so they might try to pick up a penalty beforehand although I'm pretty sure marks in the 80s have got in recently.
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Comfortably makes the cut and now 12/1 third fav.

Only one will have to come out for a max field so I imagine connections of anything that picked up a penalty just to get in will be feeling a tad sick.

Eight Irish-trained decs there too. Are they likely to make the journey?

I feel a wee bit sorry for connections of Ocean Wind who didn't even qualify. Would have had a major say.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Comfortably makes the cut and now 12/1 third fav.

Only one will have to come out for a max field so I imagine connections of anything that picked up a penalty just to get in will be feeling a tad sick.

Eight Irish-trained decs there too. Are they likely to make the journey?

I feel a wee bit sorry for connections of Ocean Wind who didn't even qualify. Would have had a major say.
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When the good Doctor trained this one he said he need good or better ground. Weather watch for this one.
 
Leon well backed now into 8/1 in a place.

Willie Mullins trained horse Great White Shark also well backed.
 
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Marb said:
Leon well backed now into 8/1 in a place.

Willie Mullins trained horse Great White Shark also well backed.
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Yes. 8/1 now looks the general price with 10s still there in a place or two.

It's always encouraging when an ante-post pop halves in price but it's still 1/8 it won't win :lol:

Hopes were high last weekend with River Nymph halving in price too only for the bastartin weather to win. No chance of getting 12s next time.
 
I've been through the Coral Sprint at York this Saturday. It looks a minefield of a race but one who has definately caught my attention is Tranchee, who is having a much better season this summer, having changed trainer to David Loughrane's yard.

Tranchee won nicely the last day at Doncaster so is coming in here in top form, and his second placing to River Nymph, with Owen Burrows future winner Danyah back in third reads really well.

Tranchee was only receiving 1lb in weight off River Nymph that day, and maybe Tranchee will turn out to be a better horse over six furlongs which he'd get this Saturday. At present he is entered in a Group two on Friday but hopefully he will be taken out of that tomorrow morning.
 
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Outsider said:
I did mukha magic 66/1 for the ces only to see it entered at southwell tonight.
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Yes, I think I put it up on the longshot thread at Goodwood after its big run at unfavourable weights in the Queen Alexandra and it's also on my radar.
 
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This weekend nothing jumps (god I can't wait for the jumps) out at me but some thoughts are:
Can't have Cape Byron as fav for the Challenge Stakes but struggling for an alternative. Pogo would appeal if the ground isn't too soft. The last two times he hasn't stayed over 9f so dropping below a mile is interesting.

The Dewhurst market is fascinating. I'd have Etonian over Chindit in terms of the impression they have made on me but the trainer is very much in the latter's camp judging by comments he's made about their work preps.
 
Euronymous said:
This weekend nothing jumps (god I can't wait for the jumps) out at me but some thoughts are:
Can't have Cape Byron as fav for the Challenge Stakes but struggling for an alternative. Pogo would appeal if the ground isn't too soft. The last two times he hasn't stayed over 9f so dropping below a mile is interesting.

The Dewhurst market is fascinating. I'd have Etonian over Chindit in terms of the impression they have made on me but the trainer is very much in the latter's camp judging by comments he's made about their work preps.
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You and me both. I’ve virtually abandoned the flat now and just enjoying the preludes before the curtains open on the star cast.
 
I'm 95% through the Ces form and have taken 20/1 Lightly Squeeze.

He was still in the lead when falling at the last in the Betfair, a performance that suggests he might even be better handicapped than Leoncavallo. He'll be 4lbs out of the handicap but the chances are Harry Fry will engage a top claimer and only needs one to drop out (and I can't see Gavin Cromwell running all of his).

This is another I can see halving in price.

Edit - Hayley Turner booked.
 
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Verdana Blue ruled out of Cesarewitch with an abcess on her foot, looking at Ascot the following weekend (Sat) or a listed hurdle at Kempton (Sun)
 
Marb said:
I've been through the Coral Sprint at York this Saturday. It looks a minefield of a race but one who has definately caught my attention is Tranchee, who is having a much better season this summer, having changed trainer to David Loughrane's yard.

Tranchee won nicely the last day at Doncaster so is coming in here in top form, and his second placing to River Nymph, with Owen Burrows future winner Danyah back in third reads really well.

Tranchee was only receiving 1lb in weight off River Nymph that day, and maybe Tranchee will turn out to be a better horse over six furlongs which he'd get this Saturday. At present he is entered in a Group two on Friday but hopefully he will be taken out of that tomorrow morning.
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Tranchee declared and shortened up from an opening show of 20/1 a few days ago. He could start single figure prices on Saturday.

Jim Crowley is on board Reshoun who I think has a good each way chance. I guess a lot depends on how good the market leaders turn out to be. If Reshoun is at his best, (and as mentioned before, he does come good late in a season) , then 25/1 is a decent price for an each way flutter.

I'll stick with Brad The Brief in the 1.00 Bengough Stakes who could improve further. Martin Harley rides him.

Elsewhere I'm hoping Some Chaos will get back to form at Chepstow, where he will be carrying a low weight taking on Ballyoptic and co in the 2.47.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm 95% through the Ces form and have taken 20/1 Lightly Squeeze.

He was still in the lead when falling at the last in the Betfair, a performance that suggests he might even be better handicapped than Leoncavallo. He'll be 4lbs out of the handicap but the chances are Harry Fry will engage a top claimer and only needs one to drop out (and I can't see Gavin Cromwell running all of his).

This is another I can see halving in price.

Edit - Hayley Turner booked.
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Looks like I might not get a run with this one after all. Alarm bells rang when I saw HT missing from the jockeys and she's got a few booked at Chelmsford but Lightly Squeeze also holds a Chepstow engagement with Sean Bowen booked.

Oh well. We move on...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Looks like I might not get a run with this one after all. Alarm bells rang when I saw HT missing from the jockeys and she's got a few booked at Chelmsford but Lightly Squeeze also holds a Chepstow engagement with Sean Bowen booked.

Oh well. We move on...
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Money back though.
 
Marb said:
Tranchee declared and shortened up from an opening show of 20/1 a few days ago. He could start single figure prices on Saturday.
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You've done well if you've got 20/1, Marb.

I've had a look at the race now and it's definitely short-list material. I've taken 12/1 but it's single figures generally now (and blue). I can't say at this point if it will be my main hope in the race but a win would be no surprise on my figures.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think so Outsider. I reckon it was probably ante-post at the time I backed it. I see a couple have shortened it to 14/1 but that might be the bookies' way of deducting 5% elsewhere under the guise of R4.
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Hold that result...

It looks like they've changed the max from 35 (which I'm pretty certain was the case when I checked upon the release of the weights) to 34 so LS is now a reserve therefore if he doesn't get in I will get my money back.

Curiously enough, it's gone blue in a number of places this evening so I went in again at 22/1 with Hills.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Hold that result...

It looks like they've changed the max from 35 (which I'm pretty certain was the case when I checked upon the release of the weights) to 34 so LS is now a reserve therefore if he doesn't get in I will get my money back.

Curiously enough, it's gone blue in a number of places this evening so I went in again at 22/1 with Hills.
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No withdrawals so misses the cut. No harm done after all.
 
In Saturday's Balmoral Hcap I've gone in early on Graignes 33/1 5pl.

I've no idea if he will run so it's a bit of a leap in the dark but if he does run I'll be surprised if he stays at such long odds.

Last spring he was beaten a nose in the Djebel before being beaten just three lengths behind Persian King in the Poulains. He put a modest run in the Jean Prat behind him when just over three lengths behind Romanised in the Marois. I reckon if he was British his OR would have been around 112 at that point. His next two runs were in the Pin (G3) and Foret (G1), again running both times with credit. His biggest price in any of those runs was 16/1 in the Marois.

He moved to George Baker in February and had wind surgery after one run. I thought he showed promise at Goodwood (behind Space Blues) and Haydock (behind Top Rank) but his mark has come down to 104. Would people fancy Persian King in this race off 111 or Romanised off 112? I reckon they'd be single-figure odds.

Obviously that's cherrypicking his form but isn't that what we usually do to justify fancying something?

If he stays at the same price or goes longer and better place terms open up I can always go in again but right now I'm happy to take a wee punt on him.

[Copied to the longshot thread.]
 
I am going to have to wait as the one I like has been took out of bet365 betting but is 25s with skybet.
BLOWN BY WIND.

NR should have checked first.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
In Saturday's Balmoral Hcap I've gone in early on Graignes 33/1 5pl.]
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I've had a closer look at the race and decided it was worth taking at this stage the 11/2 on offer about the favourite Raaeq. He ultimately ran away with a decent enough race last time and is officially 5lbs well in under his penalty. I think it was a stronger performance again than that. None of the beaten horses have come out yet but it's entirely possible the handicapper could up-rate the race in due course They all started coming off the bit approaching two out and the runner-up came through from the back but Raaeq went clear from the front and was less than two seconds slow (RP times). That was over 7f and he looked likely to be suited by another furlong, having run on well over that distance the time before at Sandown. The ground was soft so he shouldn't have any concerns on that score. It looked to me like the performance of a potential Group horse and a serious improver.

If he stays around the same price I might go in again but I can see 11/4 being his price on Saturday despite the competitiveness of the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had a closer look at the race and decided it was worth taking at this stage the 11/2 on offer about the favourite Raaeq. He ultimately ran away with a decent enough race last time and is officially 5lbs well in under his penalty. I think it was a stronger performance again than that. None of the beaten horses have come out yet but it's entirely possible the handicapper could up-rate the race in due course They all started coming off the bit approaching two out and the runner-up came through from the back but Raaeq went clear from the front and was less than two seconds slow (RP times). That was over 7f and he looked likely to be suited by another furlong, having run on well over that distance the time before at Sandown. The ground was soft so he shouldn't have any concerns on that score. It looked to me like the performance of a potential Group horse and a serious improver.

If he stays around the same price I might go in again but I can see 11/4 being his price on Saturday despite the competitiveness of the race.
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Strong case, Desert. Did you look at Chance? In Raaeq’s previous race at Sandown on 11 September he beat Chance by 1 3/4 lengths in receipt of 2lbs. On Saturday he has to give Chance 11lbs. In his last race, Class 2 at York, Chance was extremely unlucky not to be awarded the race after he was bumped and carried across the course by the winner.
 
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Should Champions Day have it's own thread? Dunno, looks a below par card this year. The Sprint and Long Distance have shorties who are very hard to oppose, as is Palace Pier although I got double figures on the Frenchue after his win at the Arc meeting. The Champion lacks depth and actually the F&M looks the best race.
 
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