Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

barjon said:
Strong case, Desert. Did you look at Chance? In Raaeq’s previous race at Sandown on 11 September he beat Chance by 1 3/4 lengths in receipt of 2lbs. On Saturday he has to give Chance 11lbs. In his last race, Class 2 at York, Chance was extremely unlucky not to be awarded the race after he was bumped and carried across the course by the winner.
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Not yet, barjon. It's 20 max runners so I only looked at the top 30 in the decs as I'm not sure that many will come out. It's the type I'll look more closely at if it makes the cut.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not yet, barjon. It's 20 max runners so I only looked at the top 30 in the decs as I'm not sure that many will come out. It's the type I'll look more closely at if it makes the cut.
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Ah, right. It’s just that he’s in my book as “a winner without penalty” because of that last run. I hadn’t considered whether he’d make the cut or not.
 
Has someone 'of influence' put up Orbaan for the Balmoral?

I finished my ratings today and it was on my radar as a potential value punt at around 25/1 but I see this evening it has gone blue across the board and is in the mid-teens in terms of price. I've taken 20/1 just in case there's something more substantial behind the move but it's more a question of being on the right side of a potential gamble. O'Meara and Tudhope in a race in which trainer is mob-handed.
 
Good luck all for Saturday. Here's a few I picked out at what are generous prices. All each way.

1.20 Stradavarius a worthy favourite but if ever he was vulnerable it might after a tilt at the Arc. If he can bounce back fair play to connections, but there is a freak in the field, and that freak is Sovereign. This one mullered our 2019 Derby winner in last seasons Irish Derby at the Curragh. Aidan O Brien said the horse was always talented but for whatever reason had not shown this on the racetrack. I've a feeling that this Saturday could be a day where Sovereign will put its best foot forward at a good each price.

1.55 An open race where I feel Paddy Tworneys filly, Sonaiyla is improving now at rate of knots. I looked at the form of all of them. Only a length behind Glass Slippers the last day when keeping on in the finish, she could attract market support nearer the time. My conclusion is that this filly can run into a place.

2.30 After Frankly Darling won at Royal Ascot I was convinced she was a very good horse. She went in to the oaks a live hope against a superstar horse in Love, but even as Love won easily, I still don't think Frankly Darling ran her best race that day. She probably didn't the last day either. However, Frankly Darling looked a big strong horse at this track in June so she might come alive again back at this place, at a good price as well!

3.40 Skalleti is a French raider who looks a bit overpriced in this event. I seem to think she's a very good horse and that the trainer hasn't brought her over to England for no reason. They must think she has a chance. This horse beat Sottsass in August which now looks like pretty decent form.

4.15 I mentioned Revich a few weeks ago on the forum, as a horse improving since the visors were applied. Whether he is in the right class here against very classy opponents, and horses that are probably ahead of the handicapper, only god knows, but as second reserve, if Revich manages to get a run, I reckon he will surprise a few people. See what happens.
 
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Agree with Sovereign as an ew punt, Marb, but like Art Power, at a juicy 11/1 in the sprint. Reckon he'll turn the table on Dream of Dreams on this stiffer track. Haven't looked at the others, yet.
 
Marb said:
1.20 Stradavarius a worthy favorite but if ever he was vulnerable it might after a tilt at the Arc. If he can bounce back fair play to connections, but there is a freak in the field, and that freak is Sovereign. This one mullered our 2019 English Derby winner in last seasons Irish Derby at the Curragh. Aidan O Brien said the horse was always talented but for whatever reason had not shown this on the racetrack. I've a feeling that this Saturday could be a day where Sovereign will put its best foot forward at a good each price.
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God I hate that stable. Was strong on Wembley last week and done by another Ballydoyle. I wouldn't touch any of them in this as I'd be bound to pick the wrong one. I'm waiting for the w/o Strad market as the two immediately behind him in the market are not his main dangers. Search for a Song is incredibly average and Fujaira Prince a non stayer. Trueshan will stay and goes on the ground. Ranch Hand and Rock Eagle have franked his most recent win.


The Sprint is terrible


Done my money on Alpinista in the F&M. Prescott shouldn't be let near a group horse. She's a ******* Frankel and he's pulled her on ground concerns. Retire already.


I have The Revenant ew at 10s for the QEII. Happy with that.


Champion is a 2 horse race. Mishriff now backable. Last year's win for Magical looks very ropey. Fox Tal way too close up.


Will likely back Tempus in the Balmoral.
 
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It'll be interesting to watch on Saturday.

It's called champions day, so loads of people will back the favourites blindly. I've got a friend who does this every Saturday.

Other people (like me) think its a good opportunity to take the favourites on, as the opposition is as good as it can ever be. The problem is, even if you go against a favourite...there's no guarantee's you are on the right outsider, i.e. you back a 10/1 shot and another 10/1 wins the bloody race....

"Champion is a two horse race" - Famous last words those I think, Euro.

Isn't there an angle that Magical and one or two other fancied horses have had hard enough races this season when facing nowhere near the level of opposition that they face on Saturday.

Cumulatively there are more serious opponents in this race than what Lord North, Magical, or Mishriff have faced in 2020 thus far. The derby winner Serpentine just as one example is a 14/1 chance, this must say something about how competitive it is.

This is why I fancy the French horse Skalleti. The dark horse or unknown package in the race.
 
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No doubt the ITV mob will big this up out of all proportion.

Most of the races are contested by most of the best horses around but some of the races are no better than glorified handicaps.

I can see where Marb is coming from in 'taking on' favourites but I'm arriving pretty much as the same destination via a different train of thought. I'm looking for ones that are under-rated for whatever reason, whether they're favourite or not. For example, if Dream Of Dreams and Oxted are worth the same OR I'll give the game up. However, I'm not sure about DOD at this trip in the likely ground but I wouldn't be keen to oppose it.

I have a big figure for Serpentine in the Derby and if he acts in the ground he will be very hard to beat in the Champion Stakes.

A top rating of 114 in the F&M makes a mockery of G1 status but I think Mehdaayih is a lot better than that. She strikes me as being a bit of a forgotten horse.
 
Marb said:
Cumulatively there are more serious opponents in this race than what Lord North, Magical, or Mishriff have faced in 2020 thus far. The English derby winner Serpentine just as one example is a 14/1 chance, this must say something about how competitive it is.

This is why I fancy the French horse Skalleti. The dark horse or unknown package in the race I reckon.
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I've given up taking on AOB fillies/mares based on long seasons. And she bypassed the Arc this year which she didn't a year ago. The Frenchie would be my route normally but I've never heard of the trainer which puts me off.
 
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She hasn't faced more than five rivals in any of her races this season. The last time she was in a proper Group One was last years arc, when fifth of twelve behind my favourite stallion who I wish had stayed in training, Waldgeist. :)

Only the lads will have more than £20 on the nose on Magical come Saturday, the rest of us mere mortals will be taking her on at about 7/4.:)

She'll find one too good in this Group One, surely?
 
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Good support according to oddschecker for Sonaiyla in the Sprint. Into a general 14s now, am getting sweeter and sweeter on her chance.

Frankly Darling in the other race drifting to nearly 20/1 which is off putting, but maybe her price will shorten tomorrow. After a decent break off the track Frankly Darling can run a big race to grab a place, but the other Gosden runner and DO's fancy is a big mover in the betting, so maybe I am on the wrong Gosden runner.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Took 14/1 [Mehdaayih] yesterday. Looks like people are remembering. Single figure price everywhere now.
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Drifted badly near the off and unusually badly ridden for Dettori, held up at the back and asked to make her move when they were all trying to quicken then looked after late in the day. Being prepped for America?
 
I'm sure the Princess Zoe story is heart warming but even money for the Prix Royal Oak next Sunday is way way unders. Call the Wind is a classy stayer who was given too much to do in the Cadran. 7/2 is very fair and I think the Chaudenay winner Valia will be his biggest danger.
 
I was just looking at the Becher Chase this Saturday. Looks competative with plenty of chances, although I am drawn to Smooth Stepper at this early stage.

He won at big odds of 33/1 in the Haydock Grand National trial last season. I don't know if he was intended to run in the Grand National before it was abandoned, but anyway, he is quite old aged 11 so this could be his final season, but age didn't stop him at Haydock.

That was probably his best run to date. He had future Cheltenham festival second placer, Lord Du Mesnil back in second that day, with recent Cheltenham second Yala Enki back in third place.

Overall Smooth Stepper has an excellent chase record, and he really appeals for the Becher this Saturday at 25/1. He had a satisfactory comeback the last day when 5th, that should put him spot on for this. I'll wait for final declarations before backing him though, I see he's also entered in the Welsh National.
 
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Without knowing the field, I'd say the form you refer to is very good (I backed LDM at Cheltenham on the back of it) and 25/1 would certainly appeal to me as a blind bet.
 
Marb said:
I was just looking at the Becher Chase this Saturday. Looks competative with plenty of chances, although I am drawn to Smooth Stepper at this early stage.

He won at big odds of 33/1 in the Haydock Grand National trial last season. I don't know if he was intended to run in the Grand National before it was abandoned, but anyway, he is quite old aged 11 so this could be his final season, but age didn't stop him at Haydock.

That was probably his best run to date. He had future Cheltenham festival second placer, Lord Du Mesnil back in second that day, with recent Cheltenham second Yala Enki back in third place.

Overall Smooth Stepper has an excellent chase record, and he really appeals for the Becher this Saturday at 25/1. He had a satisfactory comeback the last day when 5th, that should put him spot on for this. I'll wait for final declarations before backing him though, I see he's also entered in the Welsh National.
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I've stuck Smooth Stepper in a small for fun each way patent, I am hopeful this battle hardened handicapper will give me a run for my money, along with Tout Est Permis at Navan (1:08) and Dingo Dollar in the Grand Sefton, who might be the type to improve a fair bit after the wind operation. That's my only interest tomorrow.
 
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I like Smooth Stepper as an each way shout tomorrow too Martin. His price doesn’t reflect his chance in the race imo.
 
Grand National - Le Breuil 50/1 - will need to go up 5lbs to have any chance of making the cut in April so I'm expecting a big run today leading to a cut in price.
 
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