Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Had a few anti's recently.

Creative Force 10/1 Sprint Cup. With Dragon Symbol apparently going to Ireland this race lacks depth behind Starman and the Godolphin animal looks solid for a place.

Great Ambassador 8/1 Ayr Gold Cup. Very tracker worthy coming out of the Stewards Cup he won like a very well handicapped horse next time at Newmarket. Hopefully the ground will be ok.

Astro King 20/1 Cambs. This horse doesn't stay 10f and yet just seems to find one or two too good over a mile. The Cambs trip looks ideal and he loves a straight track.
 
I really like Great Ambassador for Ayr but decided against a punt for now because of the price. I thought he might still be 8s at the five-day or final dec stage.
 
With little rain forecast through Saturday, Haydock promises decent ground for the Sprint Cup, I've taken an ew punt on Art Power at Betfair's 15/2.
Didn't last home at on soft at Ascot, and similar when contesting a suicidal pace in the July Cup. Supremacy, out there with him, finished a remote 17th.
Has less than 2l to find with Starman, and has every chance of doing so on this sharper tack.
 
Maybe I should add that Starman is a ridiculous price for this, and needs taking on. Fast ground is not a given, the furious pace of the July Cup unlikely, and no uphill finish to bring the field back to him; none of which those raving about him seem to have taken account of.
Absolute lay, imo.
 
Euronymous said:
Great Ambassador 8/1 Ayr Gold Cup. Very tracker worthy coming out of the Stewards Cup he won like a very well handicapped horse next time at Newmarket. Hopefully the ground will be ok.
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Great Ambassador runs in the 3.15 at York on Sunday, which is a listed race. I'm not sure how that will affect his chance for the Ayr Gold Cup in terms of his rating and possible weight for Ayr?

Coincidently, the horse who was fourth the last day behind Great Ambassador, called First Folio, runs half an hour or so before off the top weight in a six furlong handicap at York.

All things considered I just wonder if First Folio will make anti post odds of 20/1 for the Ayr Gold Cup look too big after his run this Sunday?

He's an improving sort who has paid his way thus far since moving to new trainer James Ferguson yard after he was gelded.

He reportedly ran poorly in the stewards cup on very soft ground so with all his best form on good or firmer I think connections probably gave an honest answer for the poor showing at Goodwood.

He could put himself right in the Ayr Gold Cup picture this Sunday if he can score off the top weight.

The horse he beat when giving 7lb in weight at York, called Blackrod, has franked the form nicely since when winning two decent handicaps on the bounce.

So hence both of these races concerning the aforementioned Great Ambassador and First Folio are of interest this Sunday.

As I've mentioned James Ferguson, I should note down that after looking at the Ceserewitch I'm really taken by his progressive and consistent improver Snowalot.

He's kept improving on turf, now on a mark of 85, (which will more than likely make the cut comfortably for the ceserewitch, judged on recent renewals). He's my early recommendation for the race.
 
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Marb said:
Great Ambassador will run in the 3.15 at York on Sunday, which is a listed race. I'm not sure how that will affect his chance for the Ayr Gold Cup.
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I'm not surprised. The trainer isn't bad but he's one of those who just makes bad decisions with his horses. This is a completely pointless entry.
 
Bit harsh, Euro. He won the York race with Starman last year and I guess he’s worried that Great Ambassador will lose his ground if the rains come. Like Marb I’m not sure how winning at York will affect his Ayr weight. Mind you, he does see his geese as swans most of the time :)
 
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Dragon Symbol heads over to Ireland for the Flying Five and I make him a bet at 9/2. He holds Glass Slippers on Goodwood running and I can't really have Winter Power on a stiffer track than York.
 
Euronymous said:
I'm not surprised. The trainer isn't bad but he's one of those who just makes bad decisions with his horses. This is a completely pointless entry.
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Well well. Your horse won impressively today. My best guess is he'd carry at least a 6lb penalty now for Ayr?
 
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I haven't committed to the race anti post yet as I feel the ground on the day could play a role.

A horse like River Nymph would surely shorten if it came up soft, given his win at Ascot this season. He's been off the track for a few months.

The Stewards Cup was run on soft aswell wasn't it.

Definately worth waiting until nearer the race I feel. In theory Great Ambassador would have a great chance though.
 
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As I've mentioned James Ferguson, I should note down that after looking at the Ceserewitch I'm really taken by his progressive and consistent improver Snowalot.

He's kept improving on turf, now on a mark of 85, (which will more than likely make the cut comfortably for the ceserewitch, judged on recent renewals). He's my early recommendation for the race.

Snowalot is entered this Sunday, a race which would put him spot on in time for the Ceserewitch. Jockey booked, (Daniel Muscat could ride). I'm hoping to see a really impressive performance.
 
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Marb said:
I'm hoping to see a really impressive performance.
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They might not be confident he'll make the cut hence the need for a penalty but if, as you say, he'd likely get in anyway a penalty would not make life any easier.

I spent a bit of time last night checking through Willie Mullins's entries. Saldier is chucked in but i'm not sure he'll stay the trip on the Flat. GWS was very impressive last year and will definitely be on my short list.
 
Desert Orchid said:
They might not be confident he'll make the cut hence the need for a penalty but if, as you say, he'd likely get in anyway a penalty would not make life any easier.

I spent a bit of time last night checking through Willie Mullins's entries. Saldier is chucked in but i'm not sure he'll stay the trip on the Flat. GWS was very impressive last year and will definitely be on my short list.
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My main issue is does he have the class to step up to Ceserewitch level. He's very lightly raced for a four year old so hence still potentially well handicapped for a bigger race.

Maybe it's the case that they just want to get another run into him before Newmarket.

I'd rather he dotted up on Sunday to boost my confidence levels even if it meant going up a few pounds to the low 90s or carrying a penalty etc.

This near to the Ceserewitch, if he can't win well on Sunday I'd rule him out as a contender for Newmarket pretty quickly.

See what happens.

I see Ravenscraig Castle who was an eye-catcher at York on Ebor day is also entered in this race on Sunday. He doesn't have a Ceserewitch entry.
 
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I've been humming and harring about Hurricane Ivor for the Portland. I've backed him a lot this season without much success but Live in the Moment's good effort in the Scarborough franked his last run at York, where tbf he was not best out of the stalls - so plunge taken at 8s. He's off 102 which is tight but he was on the same mark on the knavesmire and this race hasn't the same depth.
 
Marb said:
My main issue is does he have the class to step up to Ceserewitch level. He's very lightly raced for a four year old so hence still potentially well handicapped for a bigger race.

Maybe it's the case that they just want to get another run into him before Newmarket.

I'd rather he dotted up on Sunday to boost my confidence levels even if it meant going up a few pounds to the low 90s or carrying a penalty etc.

This near to the Ceserewitch, if he can't win well on Sunday I'd rule him out as a contender for Newmarket pretty quickly.

See what happens.

I see Ravenscraig Castle who was an eye-catcher at York on Ebor day is also entered in this race on Sunday. He doesn't have a Ceserewitch entry.
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Snowalot declared in a 13 runner contest. 15K to the winner so it's a decent class 4. Several last time out winners in there too. See what happens.
 
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Rewatching the weekend action I didn't notice on first watch how badly Rohaan had started in the Flying Five. His run in the circumstances was gigantic and with the Ascot form in the bank and the ability to go on extremes I think 8 or 9/1 for the Champion Sprint is very tasty. True, he's been on the go all year, but he's still clearly on form (not something you cannot say about Dragon Symbol) and Starman was poor in the race last year on soft ground.
 
Marb said:
Snowalot declared in a 13 runner contest. 15K to the winner so it's a decent class 4. Several last time out winners in there too. See what happens.
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Snowalot a little bit dissapointing back in fourth place yesterday, but maybe something positive has come out of the race in terms of the Ceserewitch.

As the winner, Goobinator, trained by Donald McCain, actually won quite nicely giving a fair amount of weight away aswell.

Goobinator actually looks on an upward curve in his own right, and interestingly enough is entered in the ceserewitch trial this Saturday, (he's also entered in another staying event this Friday).

So maybe Goobinator is now a horse of interest?

Thankfully I hadn't backed anything anti post yet as I wanted to see the race yesterday.

Also, another horse of interest trained by Mark Johnston, called Golden Flame, is also entered in the trial this Saturday.

Looking at their current marks I'm more interested in Goobinator, as I think Golden Flame has more to prove in terms of stamina, while Goobinator is on a lower handicap mark, but we'll see what happens in this trial anyway.

The declarations on Thursday should be interesting and the betting market could change a fair bit after this Saturday.
 
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