Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Old Rowley Cup (Friday) - Going Gone 16/1, 5 places - unless the RP site requires updating, will be officially 9lbs well in as he escapes a penalty for winning an apprentice race a week ago on Sunday after the weights were published. Well beaten today at 11/8 (before the new rating kicked in) which might mean he won't run but it might also keep him under the radar and they can always say the race just came too soon. Should probably make the cut and the extra places at this stage are a bonus. Happy to assume he runs and take it on the chin if he doesn't.
 
York Sprint Trophy - Mr Lupton 33/1 - the only one of Fahey's guaranteed to make the cut and can race off 1lb lower than when winning a big race over CD on good-to-soft in the spring. Just needs the luck of the draw to have a shout.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York Sprint Trophy - Mr Lupton 33/1 - the only one of Fahey's guaranteed to make the cut and can race off 1lb lower than when winning a big race over CD on good-to-soft in the spring. Just needs the luck of the draw to have a shout.
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I will join you with that one D.
 
A change of codes but based on current prices Bristol De Mai is a strong bet at 7/2 for the Betfair chase in the hope/expectation that the Haydock ground is like it usually is at that time of year

I find it hard to believe ante post fav A Plus Tard will come over if Haydock is bottomless and Nicholls has been quoted as saying the biggest mistake he made with Clan Des Obeaux last year was running him at Haydock, as he left the King George behind there.

Royal Pagaille would be a danger if turning up but taking on BDM here will be vastly different to winning last season's Peter Marsh and he's got to put the Gold Cup disappointment behind him now fully out of novice status, albeit he apparently had excuses there (lost shoes, finished lame etc)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Old Rowley Cup (Friday) - Going Gone 16/1, 5 places - unless the RP site requires updating, will be officially 9lbs well in as he escapes a penalty for winning an apprentice race a week ago on Sunday after the weights were published. Well beaten today at 11/8 (before the new rating kicked in) which might mean he won't run but it might also keep him under the radar and they can always say the race just came too soon. Should probably make the cut and the extra places at this stage are a bonus. Happy to assume he runs and take it on the chin if he doesn't.
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Sore chin achieved.
 
I like Siskany in that race. That form with Nagano and Recovery Run from Goodwood is red hot and I believe Nagano is a proper group horse and was undone by small field malarkey the time after.
 
Yes, I like Siskany too but it was only 10/1 last night and I was looking for a longer punt at that stage.

But, to paraphrase the old adage, better the short priced runner than the long priced non-runner :D
 
Siskany down to about 5/1 generally, 13/2 in a place. That's one speedboat jetting over the horizon. I might settle for a saver on him.
 
I took 20s about Coroebus for the 2000G after the Royal Lodge and am delighted with his run in the Autumn Stakes and a little amused by the ratings that seem to be coming out after yesterday's action. It looks like Native Trail is gonna be rated between 5-10 lbs his superior and I can't have that. Seems to me they are rating the name of the race rather than the content of the horses within it. Imperial Fighter and Dubawi Legend seem very close in terms of ability and indeed the former bested the latter in the Acomb.

Anyway, I've had my best ever flat season, which was much needed after quitting full time work at the end of January and a good Champions day would be a nice cap to it.

Rohaan Champion Sprint. Been all over this horse since his amazing run in Ireland and he's drifted recently because the weather forecast but he's far from a sprinter that needs deep ground. Starman a big danger but Dragon Symbol and Creative Force both ran poorly last time and seem to have had enough for the season and Art Power just ain't up to this level.

Free Wind F/M - Very impressive in the Park Hill I think the stamina requirements of Ascot's 12f will suit her and she should be 7/4 imo. Le Petite Coco is next in the betting but she owes that position in the market due to beating Love at the Curragh but that form isn't to be trusted surely (the third well beat in the Opera since).

Can't see a bet in the QE2 or the Champion Stakes but would side with Mishriff and Palace Pier
 
Euronymous said:
It looks like Native Trail is gonna be rated between 5-10 lbs his superior and I can't have that. Seems to me they are rating the name of the race rather than the content of the horses within it.
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That's pretty much how they do it. The default mode is to rate G1 form higher than G3 form.

That said, the third and fourth in the Dewhurst were rated 112 and 109 so maybe Dubawi Legend was under-rated (Simon Rowlands had a high opinion of him). The third and fourth in the Autumn didn't have ratings and one was 18/1.

My gut instinct would be to go with the Dewhurst form too. FWIW, I thought Native Trail was pretty impressive.
 
Euronymous said:
I took 20s about Coroebus for the 2000G after the Royal Lodge and am delighted with his run in the Autumn Stakes and a little amused by the ratings that seem to be coming out after yesterday's action. It looks like Native Trail is gonna be rated between 5-10 lbs his superior and I can't have that. Seems to me they are rating the name of the race rather than the content of the horses within it. Imperial Fighter and Dubawi Legend seem very close in terms of ability and indeed the former bested the latter in the Acomb.

Anyway, I've had my best ever flat season, which was much needed after quitting full time work at the end of January and a good Champions day would be a nice cap to it.

Rohaan Champion Sprint. Been all over this horse since his amazing run in Ireland and he's drifted recently because the weather forecast but he's far from a sprinter that needs deep ground. Starman a big danger but Dragon Symbol and Creative Force both ran poorly last time and seem to have had enough for the season and Art Power just ain't up to this level.

Free Wind F/M - Very impressive in the Park Hill I think the stamina requirements of Ascot's 12f will suit her and she should be 7/4 imo. Le Petite Coco is next in the betting but she owes that position in the market due to beating Love at the Curragh but that form isn't to be trusted surely (the third well beat in the Opera since).

Can't see a bet in the QE2 or the Champion Stakes but would side with Mishriff and Palace Pier
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Nice, Euro, glad you’ve had a good season. Interesting that Buick favours Native Trail and Appleby goes for Coroebus. Of the two I was house and furniture on Native Trail yesterday, although I thought Coroebus gave a smoother performance. NT was choked off as he started to move so his performance can be marked up a bit. He is also physically advanced so has less room for further advancement and may get caught up like Pinatubo. So, although I think Native Trail is a couple of pounds superior atm, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coroebus take over next season.
 
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Was impressed by Coroebus yesterday, and his impressive gear change would serve well in the Guineas, whereas Native Trail has the look of a 10f horse,imo.
 
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I was looking at the breeders Cup classic field.

Anyone have any ideas for the big race at Del Mar early next month.

I've got no special affinity with the American form book, although Rock Your World caught my eye at about 20/1.

Is he a probable runner?
 
Desert Orchid said:
You'd think I'd learn but...

Champions' Sprint, Ascot - Minzaal 25/1 - runs tomorrow making his 3yo seasonal debut but is already rated 111. I presume there have been reasons for his not being seen until now but his entry for the big race two weeks hence points to his pleasing connections. Tomorrow's race is no great shakes. He might not win but a promising run might see a contraction in his odds for the G1 race.
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Now 7/1 tops so nice to have this one on board. Not sure I'd back it at this price but I don't have to :)
 
Euronymous said:
I took 20s about Coroebus for the 2000G after the Royal Lodge and am delighted with his run in the Autumn Stakes and a little amused by the ratings that seem to be coming out after yesterday's action. It looks like Native Trail is gonna be rated between 5-10 lbs his superior and I can't have that. Seems to me they are rating the name of the race rather than the content of the horses within it.
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Simon Rowlands puts the performances into some kind of perspective over at At The Races:

Sectional Spotlight | At The Races
 
Well done to whoever it was who mentioned Luxembourg for next year's classics on this very thread after his first run in Ireland. I hope you got the bookmakers to give you a fair price!
 
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Thanks - 33s (only one firm had that price) and max allowed was €24 ew. What I would have been looking for wouldn't have been a whole pile more. Balance at 25s. Not in the market for the guineas then - perhaps luckily. I'd hope O'Brien can get his head and feet pointing in the right direction, but he is very talented.

Anyway, cue the tendon issues early June.
 
Paisley Park looks a very weak fav for the Wetherby Hurdle this sat. Not only does he look well past his best but he carries a penalty to boot. Thomas Darby ran a smasher in the Liverpool Hurdle and looks the most likely. 4s very fair
 
Younevercall at 16/1 with Betway looks like a Rick. Bet365 as short as 9s


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I'm happy to take a small chance on Run For Oscar in the same colours as that mighty Grade 1-winning hurdler at all trips - Solwhit.

I'm not at all sure if Charlie Byrnes is planning to bring him over, but he doesn't have any other entries this week, and 20/1 a fair price to find out.
 
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