Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Jesus, that thing is 8/1 in places. I know the Irish have our number but he won his last race off 133 with a 7lb claimer on. Thomas Darby was off 155 in the Coral Cup.
 
He's clearly a different animal with headgear applied and upped in trip, Euro.

Whether he has enough improvement left to win against this lot remains to be seen, but there doesn't seem to be much confidence in PP, Thomas Darby is harder to win with than Brechin City, it's probably a sighter for fencing for Tommytucker, and Indefatigable is trained by Paul Webber. Given that landscape, the fact that Run For Oscar is hard-fit, and the fact that Charlie won't bring him over for the sea air, I can see why he's been backed against the principals...........though the price has almost certainly gone now, I'd agree.
 
Thomas D is unexposed over 3 mile and his run at Aintree was much better than his efforts behind McFabulous and Summberville Boy in the earlier part of last season.
 
Typically bold, Euro. Good luck.

I should add that RFO drifting like a barge on Saturday morning, and being yanked from the race, would be in no way surprising.
 
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Less bold now as found out they have been watering and there's some rain due. Can see TD being outstayed if it's really soft
 
Yeah, Thomas D is hard to win with. Bit annoying that the mare who won was behind him at both Kempton and Aintree last year.
 
was just having a look at the November Handicap next Saturday and think the 12/1 for Charlie Fellows Mr Curiosity looks very big. If he turns up and gets a reasonable draw I could see him being half that price.
 
Looked over this weekend's jumps prices but couldn't find an angle. Master of the Seas is overpriced at 10s for the Breeders Cup Mile though. At the start of the season his trainer used runs at Meydan and the Craven to get him cherry ripe for the Guineas where he ran a stormer and it looks like he may be following the same recipe for Del Mar with the Challenge and QE2 used as preps. The inside draw on the tight track isn't ideal for a horse who is held up but four places are available and it has to be said the opposition won't be that deep.
 
I've been chipping away at a couple for the Mares hurdle for a couple of months and I'm confident that of all the festival races it offers the best ante post opportunities.

The market has been 8/1 the field for a while now and the majority of bookies were still quoting Black Tears at the top of the market until recently (a couple still are) despite Elliott saying she's been retired to be a brood mare.

The current market has best prices available as

- Black Tears 8/1 (admittedly with two firms only) - Retired
- Echoes in Rain 8/1 - Going down open company as it stands so only if she proves not up to it will head for this over the Champion and Willie doesn't have much else for the Champion other than a couple who've already come up short on numerous occasions.
- Telmesomethinggirl 8/1 - Won the novice race last year and HdB confirmed this is her target
- Concertista 10/1 - Willie has said she's going novice chasing so as with EIR, she'd only revert to this is failing at that discipline but has already come up short in the race
- Stormy Ireland 10/1 - Seems rejuvenated and Willie has said this will be her route
- Shewearsitwell 12/1 - Another who's heading this way according to the stable tour but she's yet to tackle this level of company and hasn't been seen since the injury
- Elimay 12/1 - Surely goes for the mares chase again, which was the comments in the stable tour
- Gauloise 14/1 - Another WPM likely to be aimed at this but is she good enough ?

Of all the races at the meeting, the Mares hurdle is one that rarely sees something come from left field so of the likely runners;

Telmesomethinggirl 8/1
Stormy Ireland 10/1
Shewearsitwell 12/1
Gauloise 14/1

Offers a great dutching opportunity, with focus on the top two as the most likely winners
 
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The Mares race has probably left most of all permanently scarred from betting on the day of the race without having to chance the Ante Post side of things!


Good luck though.
 
Euronymous said:
Isn't Gauloise going chasing also? I got 14s on Tellmesomethinggirl not long after the last Fest' ended.
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Actually you’re right Euro, I’d read that but forgot. Even better with just the three likely candidates and 8, 10 & 12s available

“ She's a nice, strong mare and I had high hopes for her last season. She won well at Thurles early in the campaign but disappointed me a little in the spring before coming back and winning well at Punchestown. I must have a word with Kenny Alexander as to whether he'd like to go chasing with her – it might be the thing to do but no firm plan has been made yet.”
 
wilsonl said:
I've been chipping away at a couple for the Mares hurdle for a couple of months and I'm confident that of all the festival races it offers the best ante post opportunities.

The market has been 8/1 the field for a while now and the majority of bookies were still quoting Black Tears at the top of the market until recently (a couple still are) despite Elliott saying she's been retired to be a brood mare.

Yes, I'm in complete agreement. I've been chipping away on Telmesomethinggirl and Shewearsitwell for some considerable time now. I'm utterly convinced one of the two of them wins it, and as you say, dutching them is a good strategy.

The current market has best prices available as

- Black Tears 8/1 (admittedly with two firms only) - Retired
- Echoes in Rain 8/1 - Going down open company as it stands so only if she proves not up to it will head for this over the Champion and Willie doesn't have much else for the Champion other than a couple who've already come up short on numerous occasions.
- Telmesomethinggirl 8/1 - Won the novice race last year and HdB confirmed this is her target
- Concertista 10/1 - Willie has said she's going novice chasing so as with EIR, she'd only revert to this is failing at that discipline but has already come up short in the race
- Stormy Ireland 10/1 - Seems rejuvenated and Willie has said this will be her route
- Shewearsitwell 12/1 - Another who's heading this way according to the stable tour but she's yet to tackle this level of company and hasn't been seen since the injury
- Elimay 12/1 - Surely goes for the mares chase again, which was the comments in the stable tour
- Gauloise 14/1 - Another WPM likely to be aimed at this but is she good enough ?

Of all the races at the meeting, the Mares hurdle is one that rarely sees something come from left field so of the likely runners;

Telmesomethinggirl 8/1
Stormy Ireland 10/1
Shewearsitwell 12/1
Gauloise 14/1

Offers a great dutching opportunity, with focus on the top two as the most likely winners
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I agree Lee, and I've been chipping away at Telmesomethinggirl and Shewearsitwell for some time now. I'm completely convinced that one of the two wins it and I been backing accordingly. Dutching them is absolutely the smart thing to do.
 
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Bit of random info. The word "dutching" in this context was invented by Al Capone's accountant. Not a lot of people know that :whistle:
 
The racing game has changed a fair bit since Persian War Istabraq and See You Then won their 3 Champion Hurdles.

Kato won 5 KG's Dessie won 4 and it's a only a matter of time before a hurdler wins 4 Champion Hurdles.

I have a strong feeling Honeysuckle could go very close is she stays sound.

I no longer have a betting account and things are so strict here now I can't open another one

So I am strictly a Betfair punter so I can't ask for a price.

If she stays sound It will take something really special to stop her winning 3 and she's young enough to take a 4th at the ripe old age of 10
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Bit of random info. The word "dutching" in this context was invented by Al Capone's accountant. Not a lot of people know that :whistle:
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This has been said a few times but I think it's heresy

Dutch Schultz is the gambling gangster where the term comes.

His own accountant was Otto Berman who was a genius with numbers.

Al Capone's accountant and financial advisor to the mob was Jake "Greasy Thumb" Gusik

I never found anything to say he was behind dutching but would love to know if he was
 
I rewatched Once Upon A Time in America the other night.

I could swear the ending where gangster turned politician Max walks through a truck made no real sense.

I googled it turns out the director wanted it to be a bit unclear or have a double meaning.

It's not as good as film as the Godfather.

Not by a long stretch.
 
Summit Juvenile Hurdle this Saturday, (Don 2.40). I've had a fair sized bet on Sacre Pierre each way.

He was a decent third behind this events forecast anti post favourite Porticello, and so with possible improvement to come, I figured I should take 20/1 each way.

I wouldn't usually be having these bets on juvenile hurdles but I was looking for something to back for Saturday to get a good early price about and well a few races including the handicaps at Cheltenham look very tricky so I thought I'd back this Sacre Pierre over at Doncaster.

William Hill allowed me a max of 25 each way, which I guess was alright, I then topped up with 50 each way with Skybet.

I'll look like a right pleb now if he's not declared but I see he's a positive in the market at this early stage so fingers crossed.

I wonder if it's a race fellow forumite Bachellors Hall might be previewing?
 
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I am pleased to see he was declared earlier.

I am happy to see that Brian Hughes is booked to ride.

Fingers crossed now.
 
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Marb said:
I am pleased to see he was declared earlier.

I am happy to see that Brian Hughes is booked to ride.

Fingers crossed now.
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Just the two places now available for each way bets in the Summit Hurdle.

I am pleased my anti post bets/terms were the first three places.
 
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