Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Marb said:
Found a good bet for this Saturday though its a relatively minor race at Newcastle at 1.23 only shown on Sky.

Scoop The Pot won a chase at Newcastle in December 2020 then out of form since but won recently at Newcastle again in December 2021.

Obviously likes the place and seems as though Ben Haslam has him in excellent form for a horse just turned 12.years old.

Alain Cawley booked to ride. See what the opposition is like but I like Scoop The Pot a lot.

I wouldnt mind going to the track for a day out not sure what the situation is with Covid restrictions. I should be able to get in shouldn't I?
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Declared and carries bottom weight.

Several last time out winners in there too.
 
All the best with that one, Marb.

A race with a ratings range of 127-109 would have me running a mile or three to avoid it, although I did at least notice the Hamiltons have a young one in it with Hughes jocked up.

You're a brave man :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
All the best with that one, Marb.

A race with a ratings range of 127-109 would have me running a mile or three to avoid it, although I did at least notice the Hamiltons have a young one in it with Hughes jocked up.

You're a brave man :)
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Thanks Dessie.

He is one of my stronger fancies tomorrow.

That said I will be putting him in a sporting bet super heinz with some other horses on the tele races, as opposed to any win single etc. I wouldn't want anyone to think I was lumping on!

I think he can run well and probably go very close. I think he is still well handicapped on some historical form he has from when he was trained by Phillip Hobbs.
 
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Not very original but if Nicky does run Shishkin and he beats Energugene it's race over in the qmcc.

So striking while the iron is hot.

Queen Mother Champion Chase
11/10

Honeysuckle
Champion Hurdle
4/5

Galopin Des Champs
Festival Novices' Chase
7/4

a definite 4*** 3 cross in my opinion.

10/1 the treble is availaible.
 
Not very original but if Nicky does run Shishkin and he beats Energugene it's race over in the qmcc.

So striking while the iron is hot.

Queen Mother Champion Chase
11/10

Honeysuckle
Champion Hurdle
4/5

Galopin Des Champs
Festival Novices' Chase
7/4

a definite 4*** 3 cross in my opinion.

10/1 the treble is availaible.
 
I seen this special on PP and was put off by the uncertainty of Galopin Des Champs target.

Is 10/1 available anywhere for cross doubles? The PP bet is a special and can only be backed as a treble.
 
If we dont see Bob I reckon GDC will go for the Marsh.

People think Ruby was trolling when he suggested GDC for the Marsh but it will depend on Bob I reckon.
 
Not that I know of....I backed the 3 cross on the Betfair Sportsbook to win 2.2k if one double comes up the most I can lose is 22 quid.

I also backed the 10/1 treble only with a Glasgow bookie though my brother who matched the 10/1 without restrictions....AS usual I imagine PP will have a maximum amount you can get at 10/1
 
Desert Orchid said:
All the best with that one, Marb.

A race with a ratings range of 127-109 would have me running a mile or three to avoid it, although I did at least notice the Hamiltons have a young one in it with Hughes jocked up.

You're a brave man :)
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I've only just noticed the Hamilton/Hughes horse won (fav). Their horses are really on form.
 
When it first hit seriously a managévin a shop would be given an amount...
Say 300 pounds....if you wanted 100 pounds at 2/1 you would get on right away....if you wanted 20 pounds at 20/1 the manager would have to call head office who would decide to lay you or not....I wonder now if it is calculated but computers on a percentage of the total commitment on each horse...or treble. If the whole pot for a horse is 2000 pounds and gambler A's bet would take 55 pounds then the next punters takes out 145 pounds out out and the max was 20,% of the pot and you want 100pounds at 10/1 you would only get 36pounds on...the next punter would only be allowed 20%of the remaining balance....could be rubbish as I am half asleep here lol but it might explain the strange amounts
 
Envoi Allen is 16/1 for the Ryanair. Discuss. Looking at the list there aren't many obviously formidable opponents. Can't see him going for the Gold Cup and the CC is a million.
 
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I've done a fairly lumpy ew double:

Minella Indo (Gold Cup ) 7/1
Mount Ida (Mares' Chase) 7/1

nrnb/bog

There will be worse 63/1 shots at the meeting.
 
Slim said:
Envoi Allen is 16/1 for the Ryanair. Discuss. Looking at the list there aren't many obviously formidable opponents. Can't see him going for the Gold Cup and the CC is a million.
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Ive tried looking for Henrys quotes and Csnt find them. Pretty sure he was edging towards Champion Chase after his Christmas run. Could be wrong. But Henrys always talking up his speed. I wouldn’t say Champion Chase is a million though, even if it is on paper a deeper race.

You that forgiving of the horse?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is that for me, FiftyP?

If so, I had two ante-post bets on him last season, 7/1 taken in the December and 8/1 in the February.
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Not you specifically, just a general question. I took him at 9/1 morning of because he seemed like value to me. He's 7/1 NRNB now, which seems fair given he's actually won the race, but I don't see a real difference between this season and last season. If anything this season he's performed worse. I don't know what, in either lead up, would convince you to go on at worse odds this year if you weren't on on better odds last year?
 
FiftyP said:
Not you specifically, just a general question. I took him at 9/1 morning of because he seemed like value to me. He's 7/1 NRNB now, which seems fair given he's actually won the race, but I don't see a real difference between this season and last season. If anything this season he's performed worse. I don't know what, in either lead up, would convince you to go on at worse odds this year if you weren't on on better odds last year?
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Well without staing the obvious he won the bloody thing in bertween those two events??

9/1 on a horse with two poor runs behind it and its jockey jumpong ship v 7/1 on the defending Gold Cup champion, seems fairly self explanatory really.

I was neither on last year nor will I be on this year but the price makes perfect sense tbf.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Well without staing the obvious he won the bloody thing in bertween those two events??

9/1 on a horse with two poor runs behind it and its jockey jumpong ship v 7/1 on the defending Gold Cup champion, seems fairly self explanatory really.

I was neither on last year nor will I be on this year but the price makes perfect sense tbf.
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I was talking about why you'd be on. And you explained it. You're not.

Edit: And to be clear about "jockey jumping ship" you're saying if you were RB you'd have been on Minella Indo over APT?
 
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FiftyP said:
I was talking about why you'd be on. And you explained it. You're not.

Edit: And to be clear about "jockey jumping ship" you're saying if you were RB you'd have been on Minella Indo over APT?
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The answer is still the same and I'm genuinely confused as to why you cant get that!

'jumping ship' might be a bit miselading but she clearly chose APT over Minella, which will always have an effect on the market.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
The answer is still the same and I'm genuinely confused as to why you cant get that!

'jumping ship' might be a bit miselading but she clearly chose APT over Minella, which will always have an effect on the market.
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I'm just saying that the same situation occurred this year as last year, in the lead up, except you could argue that last year MI had a better lead up over the course of the season while this year is worse. I think 7/1 is a fair price given he's won the race last year, despite, arguably, being worse over the course of the season this year. Last year I thought 9/1 was a good price. 7/1 to me isn't value.

I'm not sure what you're arguing with. If you weren't on MI last year the only reason to be on this year is because he won it already. That is definitely a reason, but for me it wouldn't be a deciding factor, and I feel 7/1 is a price with that taken into account. If you didn't rate the win last year, say you feel MI raced above his level (without getting into any particular reason) or others raced below their levels, for whatever reason, that's fair. I personally think he raced above his level and 9/1 was the correct value. So exclude last year's race... I don't think there's a convincing difference in the horse that would lead you to say "No" last year but "Yes" this year, at the relative prices.

But you've already said you wouldn't back him, you don't seem to rate him as either value or above the other horses. So I don't know what you're arguing.
 
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