Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Slim said:
Envoi Allen is 16/1 for the Ryanair. Discuss. Looking at the list there aren't many obviously formidable opponents. Can't see him going for the Gold Cup and the CC is a million.
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On form he surely finds Allaho hard to beat, and wouldn't the owners be inclined to split the pair anyway? I assume you're largely considering the place part of the bet?
 
I was gonna leave the Ryanair alone but Allaho going there with only one run and none in the new year has me wanting to take him on. I have two in mind (no laughing)

Saint Calvados. With a top trainer now and ran a stormer in the King George - the jockey went for home way too soon and lets not forget he wins the 2019 Ryanair with a better jump at the last.

Mister Fisher. Last season he was pulled up in the Paddy Power before winning the Peterborough (at Cheltenham of course). He also debuted in the KG and ran as if he needed the race - the ground was also too soft. If Nicky can get another run, maybe two into him (he's entered this weekend in the Conti Chase - of course I've backed him:cool:) and Hendo has mentioned the Denman Chase of all things he'll go to Cheltenham likely much sharper than last season, basically the reverse of Allaho. He's 50s in a couple of places.
 
FiftyP said:
I'm just saying that the same situation occurred this year as last year, in the lead up, except you could argue that last year MI had a better lead up over the course of the season while this year is worse. I think 7/1 is a fair price given he's won the race last year, despite, arguably, being worse over the course of the season this year. Last year I thought 9/1 was a good price. 7/1 to me isn't value.

I'm not sure what you're arguing with. If you weren't on MI last year the only reason to be on this year is because he won it already. That is definitely a reason, but for me it wouldn't be a deciding factor, and I feel 7/1 is a price with that taken into account. If you didn't rate the win last year, say you feel MI raced above his level (without getting into any particular reason) or others raced below their levels, for whatever reason, that's fair. I personally think he raced above his level and 9/1 was the correct value. So exclude last year's race... I don't think there's a convincing difference in the horse that would lead you to say "No" last year but "Yes" this year, at the relative prices.

But you've already said you wouldn't back him, you don't seem to rate him as either value or above the other horses. So I don't know what you're arguing.
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Prices on the day of the race last year compared to NRNB right now have Minella Indo 9/1 last year vs 8/1 now and with APT being roughly the same price as his SP from March and Galvin offering an equivalent price to last year’s 3rd fav, Champ, the big difference now is that the market hasn’t a two time winner going for the hat trick taking 30% out of the book, which is more than enough to justify backing him @ 8/1 even if you didn’t back him at 9/1 a year ago.

Add in the fact that he’s proven his class in beating the majority of these including the current favourite already and you’re taking the price about him returning to form. There were different questions to be answered last year.
 
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wilsonl said:
Prices on the day of the race last year compared to NRNB right now have Minella Indo 9/1 last year vs 8/1 now and with APT being roughly the same price as his SP from March and Galvin offering an equivalent price to last year’s 3rd fav, Champ, the big difference now is that the market hasn’t a two time winner going for the hat trick taking 30% out of the book, which is more than enough to justify backing him @ 8/1 even if you didn’t back him at 9/1 a year ago.

Add in the fact that he’s proven his class in beating the majority of these including the current favourite already and you’re taking the price about him returning to form. There were different questions to be answered last year.
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I'm not saying the price is incorrect, more that the price last year was value. And people who back this year but didn't last year "missed" something last year. I think last year it was a case of it's a good price if he runs to his best, and it's the same this year. For me the horse isn't any different but the market appraisal of him is. Which involves saying, "I didn't see it last time around."
 
FiftyP said:
For me the horse isn't any different but the market appraisal of him is. Which involves saying, "I didn't see it last time around."
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This.

On one hand you think he’s the same horse and yet aren’t prepared to adjust his subsequent chances of winning based on the (theoretically) weaker opposition.

I use the word theoretically because last year had a pretty solid (30%) favourite to consider but to think Minella Indo lesser value this year, when his chances are priced at 11.11% compared to 10% last year, you must have thought ABP had next to no chance last year.
 
wilsonl said:
This.

On one hand you think he’s the same horse and yet aren’t prepared to adjust his subsequent chances of winning based on the (theoretically) weaker opposition.

I use the word theoretically because last year had a pretty solid (30%) favourite to consider but to think Minella Indo lesser value this year, when his chances are priced at 11.11% compared to 10% last year, you must have thought ABP had next to no chance last year.
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No. As I've said repeatedly, I think his price is accurate. I think he had a chance of outperforming what was known about him last year, this year I think we have that knowledge while there are other horses that represent a deeper unknown. The more outside horses have a bigger chance of stepping up.

You're talking about "(theoretically) weaker opposition" but last year MI was the "(theoretically) weaker opposition."
 
Considering my first anti post bet for the festival tomorrow.

I was really impressed with Dinoblue the other day. Still showing blue on oddschecker and I think this will be the first bet of the meeting for me.
 
Euronymous said:
I was gonna leave the Ryanair alone but Allaho going there with only one run and none in the new year has me wanting to take him on. I have two in mind (no laughing)

Saint Calvados. With a top trainer now and ran a stormer in the King George - the jockey went for home way too soon and lets not forget he wins the 2019 Ryanair with a better jump at the last.

Mister Fisher. Last season he was pulled up in the Paddy Power before winning the Peterborough (at Cheltenham of course). He also debuted in the KG and ran as if he needed the race - the ground was also too soft. If Nicky can get another run, maybe two into him (he's entered this weekend in the Conti Chase - of course I've backed him:cool:) and Hendo has mentioned the Denman Chase of all things he'll go to Cheltenham likely much sharper than last season, basically the reverse of Allaho. He's 50s in a couple of places.
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Makes perfect sense to me.
 
Saturday should set some light on Mister Fishers chances but Unibet going 50/1 for Cheltenham would worry me......Thelan could be to wait for better ground???

As for Saint Calvados if ever I saw a race winning move if the race had been shorter it was in the King George

I really fancy him to lift a big one and the Ryanair could be it... That run at Kempton was his best since just being run out of it by Min...

Allaho look like the best lay of the meeting to me.
 
Euronymous said:
I was gonna leave the Ryanair alone but Allaho going there with only one run and none in the new year has me wanting to take him on. I have two in mind (no laughing)

Saint Calvados. With a top trainer now and ran a stormer in the King George - the jockey went for home way too soon and lets not forget he wins the 2019 Ryanair with a better jump at the last.

Mister Fisher. Last season he was pulled up in the Paddy Power before winning the Peterborough (at Cheltenham of course). He also debuted in the KG and ran as if he needed the race - the ground was also too soft. If Nicky can get another run, maybe two into him (he's entered this weekend in the Conti Chase - of course I've backed him:cool:) and Hendo has mentioned the Denman Chase of all things he'll go to Cheltenham likely much sharper than last season, basically the reverse of Allaho. He's 50s in a couple of places.
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I've used pretty much every excuse to back this horse over the years, but Saint Calvados is Nicholls only entry in the Gold Cup. If he doesn't let him take his chance, it will be the first time he hasn't had a runner in the race in a long, long time, and the temptation to let him take his chance (and test his stamina at the trip) might prove too strong to resist. Also think that SC's price has gone a bit for the Ryanair - 12/1 seems a bit narrow to me.
 
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PN surely has absolutely no intentions of running him in the Gold Cup. Ziltch Zero NONE!!!

He already said he was worried he wouldn't stay at Kempton and he didn't

TBH I don't think he'd get the trip in a horse box.

No harm in having a look when your owner can afford it but that's all it is.
 
Nicholls finds out nothing running him in the Ryanair, and the owner also has two other options for the race (Vic Rouge and Simply The Betts). I suspect you're probably right, but I don't think it's quite as clear-cut as you suggest.

Like I say, I have backed this horse more-or-less blind for the last 3-4 years, but I'm just not convinced I want to back him this far out. His price has little scope to shorten between now and the race, imo, and there's no harm in waiting. Even if he's declared, there are three or four Irish horses who seem more likely to shorten than Saint Calvados (imo).
 
Shan Blue on course for the Ryanair. An absolute lay, possibly in running as well.

Another one that will be over bet. Goes off 7/2 second fav
 
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Euronymous said:
Mister Fisher. If Nicky can get another run, maybe two into him (he's entered this weekend in the Conti Chase - of course I've backed him:cool:)
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I got 5s on Monday and his opponents are Defi, Rouge Vif and Eldorado Allen. I mean, he should win but the top up prices will be odds-on surely. Not pleased.
 
I took 12's Defi (small bet) on Tuesday. He's well-treated at these weights, and it seemed like a fair price to see if he can bounce back.
 
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Marb said:
Considering my first anti post bet for the festival tomorrow.

I was really impressed with Dinoblue the other day. Still showing blue on oddschecker and I think this will be the first bet of the meeting for me.
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For what race?
 
Ref Saint Calvados above I would guess he won't run before the Festival, and if he does turn up it will be over 2m - 2m 5f based on the fact that his form figures at those distances after 10 weeks off read 2 (beaten a neck in the Ryanair),1,1,1,1,1.
 
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I am just waiting on the Lanzarote declarations coming through. I looked last night I am quite sweet on Micky Hammonds runner Fostersisland each way. It looked touch and go whether he'd make the cut off 123 so I am not parting with any money until I see him in the decs. I think he is a rapid improver and was good each value last night at 25s with one firm although I wasn't prepared to risk it.
 
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Marb said:
I am just waiting on the Lanzarote declarations coming through. I looked last night I am quite sweet on Micky Hammonds runner Fostersisland each way. It looked touch and go whether he'd make the cut off 123 so I am not parting with any money until I see him in the decs. I think he is a rapid improver and was good each value last night at 25s with one firm although I wasn't prepared to risk it.
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Declared with a hopefully decent 7 pound claimer on.

No 19 of 20 in the list and there is a big differential in the weights between top and bottom weight so its a proper handicap hurdle in every sense of the word.

I will be backing Fostersisland soon.

I found Boreham Bill last year. Fingers crossed.
 
Pertemps hurdle final.
THE JAM MAN 33s boosted to 36.75/1 hills

Needs to finish in the first 6 tomorrow in a 7 horse race.rated 146 so wont need to win.
 
Pertemps hurdle final.
THE JAM MAN 33s boosted to 36.75/1 hills

Needs to finish in the first 6 tomorrow in a 7 horse race.rated 146 so wont need to win.
 
Well well well.

I was planning to have my first anti post bet a few days ago on Dino Blue but you can't spend the same money twice and I felt I had missed the price so decided to leave it for now.

When I have an hour to kill I like to go through the form of some of the races the past season.

It's probably unrealistic to think your eyes and brain can recall everything needed that you need to know so I went through a few races this season to see where there could be value for the festival or even upcoming races.

A couple of form pieces stuck out to me.

The first was the Welsh National trial run at Chepstow earlier this season.

Iwilldoit had todays Warwick Chase winner Eclair Surf back in third. Clearly both horses appear to have improved markedly for the step up in trip.

Colorado Doc was a well beaten second that day, when seemingly hammered 24L by Iwilldoit, and he was pulled up next time in the Welsh National.

However, with Eclair Surf franking that form again today, it makes Colorado Doc's run back in second look much better.

Colorado Doc is actually entered in the Wincanton Somerset National chase due to be run this Thursday.

Maybe its worth giving him another chance even after his last pulled up effort? We will see what lines up on Thursday...

The second race I am interested is was the Castleford Chase run at Wetherby on boxing day.

The Dan Skelton trained and John Hales owned Eclair D'ainay looked to come back to form plus a few pounds improvement when winning really well against Cheddleton and the Ann Hamilton trained Nuts Well, who finished an admirable third given he was lumping around top weight off a mark in the high 150's.

So to me that is really solid 2 mile handicap chase form and Eclair D'ainay is now a horse of serious interest in the 2 mile handicap chase division.

His next start could be on Friday in another 2 mile handicap chase at Lingfield which will be covered by ITV.

I am not sure whats not to like about Eclair D'ainay for a race like the Grand Annual.

He jumped really well on boxing day aswell which was a good thing to see as he had previously fallen over fences.

He seems to be hitting peak form at just the right time and I will be taking the 25/1 each way for the Grand Annual shortly, in anticipation of a possible good run this Friday at Lingfield.

He is on a mark of 141 at present so could still afford to win another handicap chase on his way to the Grand Annual.
 
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