Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

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I lost my bank card last week so i had to place it in a shop on the high street with cash.

I read Noel Meade thinks he can stay 3M4F but I didn't know he would swerve the Ultima.

He has improved for the 3 mile trip on good ground like the last day, I think they should go for the Ultima myself, but then that is my pocket talking.

He's fallen three times in career thus far albeit twice over hurdles...I am suprised they favour the Irish National over the Ultima I really am.

The trainer only says this so the price will drift.
The weights for the national come out in February so it wouldnt matter if he won at Cheltenham.
I think they should go for the ultima rather than take on The Jam man in the irish national.

 

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Its an absolutely dogshit race, but see Shantou Flyer has an entry in a hunters chase on Thursday. His third in the Kim Muir looks somewhat better with what Mount Ida and Cloudy Glen have done since.

Appreciate Maxwell will be riding, horse will be 12, but the race is really poor. One ill be backing come the day.

It's in the betting for the kim Muir.

 

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DESTINEE ROYALE kim Muir 33/1

Runs tomorrow at wincanton 6/4f and ought to win.a mark of 132 leaves leeway for Cheltenham.also entered in the ultima but VW does like this race.

 

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DESTINEE ROYALE kim Muir 33/1

Runs tomorrow at wincanton 6/4f and ought to win.a mark of 132 leaves leeway for Cheltenham.also entered in the ultima but VW does like this race.

 

[Marb]

Is anyone else having a problem with opening oddschecker today?

 

[Outsider]

Is anyone else having a problem with opening oddschecker today?

No mate.

 

[reet hard]

Not here.

 

[Euronymous]

What about Phoenix Way?

You like him this Saturday Marb's?

 

[Marb]

Hello Euro just got back from local radio duties.

I need to have a look at the race.

I thought he could improve for soft ground but I don't know if he get thats this Saturday? He travelled really well the last day so the trip should be ok.

If he ran well and won this he could well be a Paddy Power Plate handicap chase horse for the festival.

 

[Marb]

Edit.

 

[Marb]

Should find out if Colorado Doc is declared for Thursday today. I have to say I have looked at the current entries and nothing really scares me insofar as wanting to back Colorado Doc goes.

He is lightly raced for an 11 year old chaser. I am hopeful he can bounce back after his pulled up effort in the Welsh National. He has also been dropped 5lb to a mark of 135 which could help.

Colorado Doc has ran his race in a fair second place against an interesting winner from the David Pipe yard who is a relatively new recruit from France and needs watching closely now. The obvious race for him would be the Kim Muir but he is not even in the betting for that the last time I checked.

I would like to know what plans are for him now.

 

[Marb]

Colorado Doc has ran his race in a fair second place against an interesting winner from the Martin Pipe yard who is a relatively new recruit from France and needs watching closely now. The obvious race for him would be the Kim Muir but he is not even in the betting for that the last time I checked.

I would like the know what plans are for him now.

Only rated 114 before todays race so seems like even with a fair hike in the weights El Paso Wood probably wouldn't make the cut the Kim Muir.

A very interesting horse for the future now though.

If Colorado Doc is a good yardstick, (which I think he is) and he has ran somewhere to form, then El Paso Woods 34L win over Colorado Doc today would mean that even with a hike up to say 130, (from his current 114), would still make El Paso Wood a big player in another handicap chase next time out, imho.

 

[Outsider]

Only rated 114 before todays race so seems like even with a fair hike in the weights El Paso Wood probably wouldn't make the cut the Kim Muir.

A very interesting horse for the future now though.

If Colorado Doc is a good yardstick, (which I think he is) and he has ran somewhere to form, then El Paso Woods 34L win over Colorado Doc today would mean that even with a hike up to say 130, (from his current 114), would still make El Paso Wood a big player in another handicap chase next time out, imho.

Midlands national maybe.

 

[Marb]

Over 4M2F at Uttoxter in March?

I reckon there's good races to be won with the horse but I wasn't really thinking over as far as 4M2F.

I'd be very interested to see what the handicapper does. This could be a Labrokes/Hennessy horse next season.

What rating would our form guru's on this forum have him after today for his 34 length win? I think 6, 7 or 8lb rises are all very unlikely.

He goes up to the high 120's I reckon if he's lucky.

 

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He ran over 3m4f last time behind GO WHATEVER and PEMBERLEY.
On sunday it's the Surrey national and the two of them go head to head again with MOVETHECHAINS the fav.
Movethechains has won its last 3 at Lingfield over 2m7.5f and steps up in distance.won 3 races under 3 grand by 16L,12L and 20L.
The first two off 80,the 3rd off 100 and now runs off 117.
I'm a pembury follower but Go Whatever was impressive last time and is 7lb worse off for 7L but I still favour 7/1. GO WHATEVER

I do think El paso wood is one to keep an eye on though.hes only 8.

 

[Marb]

Yes Go Whatever is an interesting horse having beaten El Paso Wood the last day. He should be favourite for the race on Sunday if he gets declared tomorrow.

A horse I liked last time it ran called Eclair Mag, (when it was well backed but fell), is also entered up in the race.

If Eclair Mag drifts to a big price he might worth be a saver bet.

 

[Marb]

The second race I am interested is was the Castleford Chase run at Wetherby on boxing day.

The Dan Skelton trained and John Hales owned Eclair D'ainay looked to come back to form plus a few pounds improvement when winning really well against Cheddleton and the Ann Hamilton trained Nuts Well, who finished an admirable third given he was lumping around top weight off a mark in the high 150's.

So to me that is really solid 2 mile handicap chase form and Eclair D'ainay is now a horse of serious interest in the 2 mile handicap chase division.

His next start could be on Friday in another 2 mile handicap chase at Lingfield which will be covered by ITV.

I am not sure whats not to like about Eclair D'ainay for a race like the Grand Annual.

He jumped really well on boxing day aswell which was a good thing to see as he had previously fallen over fences.

He seems to be hitting peak form at just the right time and I will be taking the 25/1 each way for the Grand Annual shortly, in anticipation of a possible good run this Friday at Lingfield.

He is on a mark of 141 at present so could still afford to win another handicap chase on his way to the Grand Annual.

Fingers crossed tomorrow.

On a strict line through Cheddleton, who he beat over 6 lengths the last day, he could have the beating of Frero Banbou tomorrow who was behind Cheddleton in a race on December 11th at Cheltenham won by Editeur Du Gite.

Simply on that form Eclair D'ainay could be near to Editeur Du Gite who I believe is now rated 153 so I am bit surprised Eclair D'ainay is not clear favourite tomorrow.

 

[Tanlic]

Few people been getting right up my nose trying to convince themselves Energumene is some kind of budding superstar.

11/10 Shishkin for the QMCC makes huge appeal as after tomorrow he will have nothing to beat.

2/5 is my forecast price ater he disposes of the Irish wanabee by I would think 6 lengths

So grabbing 11/10 while I can.

Let's hope it's not a bad hair day and things go to plan:lol:

 

[Marb]

Fingers crossed tomorrow.

On a strict line through Cheddleton, who he beat over 6 lengths the last day, he could have the beating of Frero Banbou tomorrow who was behind Cheddleton in a race on December 11th at Cheltenham won by Editeur Du Gite.

Simply on that form Eclair D'ainay could be near to Editeur Du Gite who I believe is now rated 153 so I am bit surprised Eclair D'ainay is not clear favourite tomorrow.

Eclair D'ainay has run with credit there.

Drifted in the betting and was giving the winner 7lb in the weights.

I won't throw away my grand annual docket just yet!

My main hope is that Dan Skelton would run him in the Grand Annual especially if it came up soft.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Eclair D'ainay has run with credit there.

Drifted in the betting and was giving the winner 7lb in the weights.

I won't throw away my grand annual docket just yet!

My main hope is that Dan Skelton would run him in the Grand Annual especially if it came up soft.

I reckon today will have blown his mark.

 

[Tanlic]

Eclair D'ainay has run with credit there.

Drifted in the betting and was giving the winner 7lb in the weights.

I won't throw away my grand annual docket just yet!

My main hope is that Dan Skelton would run him in the Grand Annual especially if it came up soft.

Hard to say how the Handicapper will see it. He's failed by a length to give a 132 rated chaser 7lbs
but the h'capper is such an ass he could put the winner up 7lbs and ignore the fact the 3rd horse was rated only 117 and the main danger was pulled up.
and stick another 5lbs on your fellow. The way he thinks is you won and I am going to make damn sure you don't win again because it gives him a safety net.

So we could end up with 2 horses on their highest ever marks unable to compete.

As for the Jonny Henderson right now he'd get in just under 11 stone but if he goes up he could be carring around 11stone 5 lbs and dan probaly wouldn't even bother going.

 

[Marb]

Hard to say how the Handicapper will see it. He's failed by a length to give a 132 rated chaser 7lbs
but the h'capper is such an ass he could put the winner up 7lbs and ignore the fact the 3rd horse was rated only 117 and the main danger was pulled up.
and stick another 5lbs on your fellow. The way he thinks is you won and I am going to make damn sure you don't win again because it gives him a safety net.

So we could end up with 2 horses on their highest ever marks unable to compete.

As for the Jonny Henderson right now he'd get in just under 11 stone but if he goes up he could be carring around 11stone 5 lbs and dan probaly wouldn't even bother going.

Fair enough the winner was on 134 not 132 though, Tan.

They had the field strung out like the washing I think its good form even though as you said a horse rated 117 finished third.

I am hoping the handicapper won't ruin Eclair D'ainays chance. A 2 or 3 lb rise would not be too bad!

They'll go hell for leather like they usually do in the Grand Annual. His front running style of racing might suit him for that type of race?

He has won three times on soft ground and so all I hope is Skelton and the owner John Hales will let him take his chance if it comes up soft on day two of the festival this year.

 

[Desert Orchid]

They had the field strung out like the washing I think its good form even though as you said a horse rated 117 finished third.

Heavy ground will always exaggerate distances but these were two job horses murdering a fair enough field for the class of race. I honestly think the handicapper will push them both up a fair bit.

 

[Marb]

Heavy ground will always exaggerate distances but these were two job horses murdering a fair enough field for the class of race. I honestly think the handicapper will push them both up a fair bit.

Fair enough.

I'd settle for anything 145 or less for Eclair D'ainay, any more than that and I'd be worried. Last year Sky Pirate won it off 156 so hence I'd rather have a horse with proven form in the book than something with no decent form running off a featherweight.

On last year weights as Tanlic aluded to, a mark of 145 or thereabouts, would get you in just under or near to the 11 stone mark which isn't too bad for a horse like him.

I am under no illusions as Eclair D'ainay would need to be put away now and find a lot of improvement on raceday to win or place.

Soft ground could be the key to him.

 

[Marb]

He ran over 3m4f last time behind GO WHATEVER and PEMBERLEY.
On sunday it's the Surrey national and the two of them go head to head again with MOVETHECHAINS the fav.
Movethechains has won its last 3 at Lingfield over 2m7.5f and steps up in distance.won 3 races under 3 grand by 16L,12L and 20L.
The first two off 80,the 3rd off 100 and now runs off 117.
I'm a pembury follower but Go Whatever was impressive last time and is 7lb worse off for 7L but I still favour 7/1. GO WHATEVER

I do think El paso wood is one to keep an eye on though.hes only 8.

Good luck with this race tomorrow.

I will take Go Whatever, Smooth Stepper and Eclair Mag in reverse forecasts and tricasts. When you can't pick the winner, let alone the first two, pick three and reverse them up all up. Thats the plan.