Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Marb said:
El Paso Wood entered up in another handicap chase this Monday at Hereford.

He has a second entry for a bigger race next month which is the Haydock Grand National trial over 3M4F.
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El Paso Wood is entered up in the Eider Chase at my local track at end of the month. I hope he turns up.

Should be fav if he does.
 
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SILVER SHEEN PERTEMPS HURDLE 66/1betfair or 40/1 nrnb.

Poor run today but it qualified and job done.
Fav in 2020 until an injury.after winning the warwick qualifier.
Reappeared to have a run in jan 2021 then in Oct went chasing for two races then dropped back to hurdling in a qualifier but it was a hot race.
Then ran in a race where it was giving lumps of weight.
Then today they came over and Robbie came over to make sure the job was done properly.
Should drop a couple of pounds to 132

Looks like a Jessie plot.
 
Fakir dOudairies could easily go off fav for thw Ascot Chase on Saturday. The more it rains the further he wins.
 
Desert Orchid said:
GN Trial Haydock Saturday - Commodore 10/1. Good thing.
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Full disclosure, I got 9/1 on Secret Reprieve when the prices came out for this a few weeks ago. I can't really see him beat on really soft ground. Commodore won well lto but the field he beat was awful.


Slim said:
Fakir dOudairies could easily go off fav for thw Ascot Chase on Saturday. The more it rains the further he wins.
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Rain is forecast but not a huge amount so it may come down to who is better, MF or Fakir. The latter on ability alone may have the edge, but I can see hiim making jumping errors at Ascot. The question then is has he Captain Chris like got enough in hand class wise to get away with them? Not sure.
 
Slim said:
Fakir dOudairies could easily go off fav for thw Ascot Chase on Saturday. The more it rains the further he wins.
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Interesting. He's currently 1lb ahead of Fanion D'Estruval on RPRs and 14/1 for the Ryanair with FDE 25s (I'm on at 50s as noted at the time in the Longshot thread) but FDE is a point shorter at this stage for Saturday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Interesting. He's currently 1lb ahead of Fanion D'Estruval on RPRs and 14/1 for the Ryanair with FDE 25s (I'm on at 50s as noted at the time in the Longshot thread) but FDE is a point shorter at this stage for Saturday.
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He is a far better bet for Saturday where he gets his ground and doesn't have Allaho to worry about. He is a Grade 1 horse versus Grade 2 horses in his optiomal conditions.
 
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Euronymous said:
Full disclosure, I got 9/1 on Secret Reprieve when the prices came out for this a few weeks ago. I can't really see him beat on really soft ground. Commodore won well lto but the field he beat was awful.
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I think he made them look awful. He hammered Mister Fogpatches (who was definitely trying), subsequently placed in a hot Thyestes, in a very impressive time. The rest were strung out from before the top of the hill. My slight worry is the different ground but most of VW's act well in soft.

I'm a huge Secret Reprieve fan but Commodore blew me away that last time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Interesting. He's currently 1lb ahead of Fanion D'Estruval on RPRs and 14/1 for the Ryanair with FDE 25s (I'm on at 50s as noted at the time in the Longshot thread) but FDE is a point shorter at this stage for Saturday.
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RPR's are nonsense. Back to Mister Fisher - when he won the Peterborough last year his RPR was actually 5lbs shy of Dolos. Let that sink in.
 
On a going day Dolos is a very good animal. I'm not saying his RPR at the time was accurate but would you fancy Mr F to give First Flow 22lbs and a beating?
 
Not on soft ground no. The point though is his lofty rating like Fanian's has come the handicap route and I just don't trust those marks
 
Most of the best horses' top ratings came in handicaps. It's where they're truly tested, in my opinion.

Arkle, Desert Orchid, Denman, Burrough Hill Lad, Fanion D'Estruval...

:p
 
My old man always said a 7lbs claimer was a 7lbs penalty so effectively 165...

It's all about individual interpretation of the form. You're obviously happy with yours and I'm comfortable with mine. We won't always be right.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Most of the best horses' top ratings came in handicaps. It's where they're truly tested, in my opinion.

Arkle, Desert Orchid, Denman, Burrough Hill Lad, Fanion D'Estruval...

:p
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Aye and I often think that one of the reasons for small fields in top class races is that trainers are wary that if they go in and run mid-division they are still likely to collect a rating they can’t live with back in handicaps.
 
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I am with Slim.

If Fakir runs to within half a stone of his ryanair second last season he wins. Mister Fisher is one for the reverse forecast.

Fanion is a good horse but if he wins this off 162 then how good must Phoenix Way be off a mark of 146 in future for beating Fanion the last day even with the weight he got?
 
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It's not really a matter of being "off 162" where non-handicaps are concerned. The mark only matters in relation to the horse's true ability.

If his mark is a true indication of his ability [and he runs to that level] then it should be tight between him and Fakir. If Fakir is really a 170 horse then he should be too good and it just means his mark is/was wrong.

But valuable handicaps do tend to be more truly run than non-handicaps.

I obviously rate the Phoenix Way form highly. I think I said so at the time.
 
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Euronymous said:
Fanion's previous form in graded company leaves him with a lot to find. He's a bad price.
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I don't disagree but he appears to have improved significantly this season. I've no plans to back him this weekend at the moment. I want to get a closer look at my figures but mention of the race earlier in the thread made me look at the card and see how the RPRs stacked up relative to the odds.

The chances are if RPRs have them close then the likes of Timeform probably will too. I'll post my own later in the week.
 
Yes I agree to some extent about truly run valuable handicaps.

I often feel horses that go through a handicap before running in a graded race go off at bigger odds in the graded race than they should.

It's still an art form I am trying to perfect.

You look at Flooring Porter last season for example coming from handicap hurdles in Ireland. Then winning at good odds in graded races both before and at the Cheltenham Festival.

It happens all the time on the flat these days.

It's just about trying to correctly identify what horses can handle the step up. For every one that can step up there are five who can't.

The Godolphin horse that hacked up in the handicap at Royal Ascot the last flat season was obviously a group horse and so that turned out to be.

Dubai Honour was fourth in the Brittainia at the same meeting but then won group races in France and was second in a Champion Stakes.

That Murtagh trained horse who won the Ebor then went off reasonable odds in the Irish St Leger and landed those odds.

All that said, Fanion is hardly a lightly raced horse whose potetial we haven't seen, and I reckon he will bump into one or two who are too good this Saturday.
 
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Marb said:
All that said, Fanion is hardly a lightly raced horse whose potetial we haven't seen, and I reckon he will bump into one or two who are too good this Saturday.
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His three runs this season on RPRs (first run to most recent):

154
164
169

Where will the curve flatten?

Fakir's:

168
160
166

Where's the improvement going to come from?

As I say, I haven't reached any conclusion regarding this race. Just looked at the RPRs out of curiosity.

If the RPRs are wrong for Fanion, what's to say they're right for Fakir?

That's why I do my own. That way I've only myself to blame for any losses :)
 
I thought I had put this up on one of the threads but cant find it.

EMPIRE STEEL 28/1 nrnb Ultima .

Last October he beat Protektorat 41L in a 3 horse race getting 4lb.
Pu behind Chantry house,shan blue and one of tizzard's.
Looked like the winner when falling 4 out in the Rowland Merrick and then was going well enough in the Peter Marsh behind Royale Pigalle when it said ' got outpaced' I prefer to think protecting its hcap mark.
Due to run at kelso on friday over 2m 5f which fits into its routine of a run a month.
Doesnt want to win on friday,just run well.
 
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