I'd like to know why you value RPR ratings so highly when no serious punter does.
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Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.
- Thread starter Marb
- Start date
I'd like to know why you value RPR ratings so highly when no serious punter does.
His three runs this season on RPRs (first run to most recent):
154
164
169
Where will the curve flatten?
Fakir's:
168
160
166
Where's the improvement going to come from?
As I say, I haven't reached any conclusion regarding this race. Just looked at the RPRs out of curiosity.
If the RPRs are wrong for Fanion, what's to say they're right for Fakir?
That's why I do my own. That way I've only myself to blame for any losses
Fakir's last run was on ground at Thurles that he doesn't go on. I hate arguments that don't have any nuance.Fakir should be fav.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
With all the rain around it has to be a positive for Fakir and a negative for Mr Fisher.
Regarding Racing Post Ratings.............pointless.
Regarding Racing Post Ratings.............pointless.
Desert Orchid
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What's the difference between Good to Soft and Good to Yielding ground?
As for RPRs, it's not that I value them so highly - if I did I wouldn't have to do my own - but they are out there for everybody to see. I could just as easily have used ORs to the same end but they're not as readily obvious.
I'm trying to offer widely accessible objective (as far as it can be) evidence to counter personal opinion.
My own ratings will probably be largely in line with RPRs/ORs but, as I've said, I'm happy to put these up later in the week once I've finalised them, If they end up supporting others' personal opinion I won't have a problem with it.
Thurles is a very quick draining course. Fakir held an entry at both Lingfield and Thurles that week. The going the week of the race at Thurles had the word good in it all week. That's just not Fakir's conditions at all. He hit the first fence and that was that.
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Desert Orchid
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Three of his top five [RPR] performances have the word 'Good' in the going description, including his best one.
To me, it isn't a convincing argument.
And what's to stop him hitting a fence at Ascot and chucking it in?
To me, it isn't a convincing argument.
And what's to stop him hitting a fence at Ascot and chucking it in?
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That doesn't mean he's not better with dig in the going. He will kick a field of Grade 2 horses out of the way on Saturday if the ground is right.
As for hitting the fence, that makes his RPR last time irrelevant. He was out of the race after one fence on ground thst does not suit.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Prengarde 4/1 NRNB could end up desent value.
Being a popular horse having won the National twice and the Cross Coutry does give Gordon Elliot
the right to blatantly cheat by sending Tiger Roll to Navan totally unfit.
Elliot said he was pleased with the runas it helped him get fit.......Duh!!! so he admitted he sent him their unfit and with no chance of winning
Last season their explanation regarding improved form, that gelding seemed to appreciate the return to Cheltenham in spring
and the Steward accepted it after he was beaten 65 lengths and stone last in his previous run
Some poor guy was fined 4k last week for less but Gigginstown are above the law.
To me they are just saying fukc you will do what we like.
Being a popular horse having won the National twice and the Cross Coutry does give Gordon Elliot
the right to blatantly cheat by sending Tiger Roll to Navan totally unfit.
Elliot said he was pleased with the runas it helped him get fit.......Duh!!! so he admitted he sent him their unfit and with no chance of winning
Last season their explanation regarding improved form, that gelding seemed to appreciate the return to Cheltenham in spring
and the Steward accepted it after he was beaten 65 lengths and stone last in his previous run
Some poor guy was fined 4k last week for less but Gigginstown are above the law.
To me they are just saying fukc you will do what we like.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I am no fan of handicap hurdles - may have mentioned it before - however, the stable upgrade for Christoper Wood is interesting. Might be worth a go at Ascot on Saturday.
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The Tide Turns in the Boodles at 9/1 NRNB
Elliott was quoted in the RP Cheltenham stable preview earlier in the week as saying how he wanted to run him in the Boodles but he needed to get a 3rd run into him for him to qualify.
He’s just been declared to run in the Red Mills on Saturday in a race he wouldn’t be expected to win against the likes of Saldier, Quilixios, Darasso and Teahupoo, in spite of the weight allowance.
The last time Elliott entered a juvenile in this race was in 2019 was Couer Sublime. He finished down the field at Gowran before running 2nd to Pentland Hills in the Triumph when he had a rating of 138. That mark would have been lenient enough to run in the Boodles (then Fred Winter of course) but he was Elliott’s only realistic Triumph entry whereas this year he has at least two with very strong chances in that race.
The Tide Turns currently has an HRI rating of 135 and in the likelihood that a similar performance to Couer Sublime’s awaits him on Saturday that mark isn’t likely to change too much for the Boodles, even allowing for an Elliott BHA tax.
Having looked good on his debut in a 20 runner Punchestown maiden he performed more than creditably at the DRF behind Vauban and Fil Dor when he wasn’t given an overly hard time in the latter stages.
A mark of between 135 and c. 138 in the Boodles would (history suggests) see him carry something like 11st 5lb - 11st 8lb, which on his past performances wouldn’t be insurmountable
Were he to win on Saturday then he more than likely rules himself out of handicaps anyway so the Cheltenham NRNB kicks in. Similarly, were he to run deplorably then they may elect to skip Cheltenham altogether.
Elliott was quoted in the RP Cheltenham stable preview earlier in the week as saying how he wanted to run him in the Boodles but he needed to get a 3rd run into him for him to qualify.
He’s just been declared to run in the Red Mills on Saturday in a race he wouldn’t be expected to win against the likes of Saldier, Quilixios, Darasso and Teahupoo, in spite of the weight allowance.
The last time Elliott entered a juvenile in this race was in 2019 was Couer Sublime. He finished down the field at Gowran before running 2nd to Pentland Hills in the Triumph when he had a rating of 138. That mark would have been lenient enough to run in the Boodles (then Fred Winter of course) but he was Elliott’s only realistic Triumph entry whereas this year he has at least two with very strong chances in that race.
The Tide Turns currently has an HRI rating of 135 and in the likelihood that a similar performance to Couer Sublime’s awaits him on Saturday that mark isn’t likely to change too much for the Boodles, even allowing for an Elliott BHA tax.
Having looked good on his debut in a 20 runner Punchestown maiden he performed more than creditably at the DRF behind Vauban and Fil Dor when he wasn’t given an overly hard time in the latter stages.
A mark of between 135 and c. 138 in the Boodles would (history suggests) see him carry something like 11st 5lb - 11st 8lb, which on his past performances wouldn’t be insurmountable
Were he to win on Saturday then he more than likely rules himself out of handicaps anyway so the Cheltenham NRNB kicks in. Similarly, were he to run deplorably then they may elect to skip Cheltenham altogether.
The Tide Turns in the Boodles at 9/1 NRNB
Elliott was quoted in the RP Cheltenham stable preview earlier in the week as saying how he wanted to run him in the Boodles but he needed to get a 3rd run into him for him to qualify.
He’s just been declared to run in the Red Mills on Saturday in a race he wouldn’t be expected to win against the likes of Saldier, Quilixios, Darasso and Teahupoo, in spite of the weight allowance.
The last time Elliott entered a juvenile in this race was in 2019 was Couer Sublime. He finished down the field at Gowran before running 2nd to Pentland Hills in the Triumph when he had a rating of 138. That mark would have been lenient enough to run in the Boodles (then Fred Winter of course) but he was Elliott’s only realistic Triumph entry whereas this year he has at least two with very strong chances in that race.
The Tide Turns currently has an HRI rating of 135 and in the likelihood that a similar performance to Couer Sublime’s awaits him on Saturday that mark isn’t likely to change too much for the Boodles, even allowing for an Elliott BHA tax.
Having looked good on his debut in a 20 runner Punchestown maiden he performed more than creditably at the DRF behind Vauban and Fil Dor when he wasn’t given an overly hard time in the latter stages.
A mark of between 135 and c. 138 in the Boodles would (history suggests) see him carry something like 11st 5lb - 11st 8lb, which on his past performances wouldn’t be insurmountable
Were he to win on Saturday then he more than likely rules himself out of handicaps anyway so the Cheltenham NRNB kicks in. Similarly, were he to run deplorably then they may elect to skip Cheltenham altogether.
Elliott was quoted in the RP Cheltenham stable preview earlier in the week as saying how he wanted to run him in the Boodles but he needed to get a 3rd run into him for him to qualify.
He’s just been declared to run in the Red Mills on Saturday in a race he wouldn’t be expected to win against the likes of Saldier, Quilixios, Darasso and Teahupoo, in spite of the weight allowance.
The last time Elliott entered a juvenile in this race was in 2019 was Couer Sublime. He finished down the field at Gowran before running 2nd to Pentland Hills in the Triumph when he had a rating of 138. That mark would have been lenient enough to run in the Boodles (then Fred Winter of course) but he was Elliott’s only realistic Triumph entry whereas this year he has at least two with very strong chances in that race.
The Tide Turns currently has an HRI rating of 135 and in the likelihood that a similar performance to Couer Sublime’s awaits him on Saturday that mark isn’t likely to change too much for the Boodles, even allowing for an Elliott BHA tax.
Having looked good on his debut in a 20 runner Punchestown maiden he performed more than creditably at the DRF behind Vauban and Fil Dor when he wasn’t given an overly hard time in the latter stages.
A mark of between 135 and c. 138 in the Boodles would (history suggests) see him carry something like 11st 5lb - 11st 8lb, which on his past performances wouldn’t be insurmountable
Were he to win on Saturday then he more than likely rules himself out of handicaps anyway so the Cheltenham NRNB kicks in. Similarly, were he to run deplorably then they may elect to skip Cheltenham altogether.
Desert Orchid
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I have the utmost admiration for you guys that can get stuck into a race like the Boodles this far (and further) out.
I'll have a look at it maybe at the final dec stage but any stakes will be pretty minimal.
I'll have a look at it maybe at the final dec stage but any stakes will be pretty minimal.
Desert Orchid
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Doesn't run.
Basterts. That was a lumpy bet. It never occurred to me for a moment that it wouldn't run.
I must admit it did occur to me as they took it out of a race the other week.but I still backed it.doh.
16/1 after its win today.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I find short term ap betting one of the most rewarding, frustrating, soul destroying things about punting. You back something and it doesn't run, or it does and you haven't enough on and it's price crashes. Nightmare.
Kind of relieved Commordore doesn't go for my Secret Reprieve possie tbh. Can't see a danger now, maybe Sam Brown?
I almost punted Corach Rambler for the Swinley before seeing he was in the Reynoldstown as well. He's a bet in the latter for sure at 7/2
Fakir put up by Slim is fav now for the Ascot Chase. I'm ok with Mister Fisher. Two things:
1 - He does normally fail in Grade 1 company when his jumping is put under pressure. Not sure that will happen Sat
2 - I'm not bothered about soft ground at Ascot.
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Indeed. When I started the thread is wasn't to romanticize anti-post betting.
You put up some excellent ones in last summers flat season. Often a week or two before the race. I think it justified the thread.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Thanks Marbs. I wouldn't expect a repeat though, last year was my best ever flat season - I think my S/R was around 30%.
Grasshopper
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I backed The Saint at 100/30 and he's now 9/2. Please add this to your 'reasons why short-term a/p posting is a pain in the tits' list.
I will be going in again, and will take some of that 9/2, then see where I am at the weekend. The 2m4f on soft ground is right up SC's street, and I can only put the drift down to a) money elsewhere, and b) an ongoing (and hopefully erroneous) view that Nicholls yard is currently minced.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The stable out of form thing is over played in the market - especially when dealing with a trainer's top charges. BMG ran well last Saturday, Henry's best have all ran ok.
And oh it's on the list. ******* Imperial Aura last week, I thought I was mr clever taking on the front two in the Denman with a 7/1 poke - he was 15.5 on the machine at one point before the race.
And oh it's on the list. ******* Imperial Aura last week, I thought I was mr clever taking on the front two in the Denman with a 7/1 poke - he was 15.5 on the machine at one point before the race.
Fakir will kick him out of the way in soft ground.
Fakir will kick him out of the way on soft ground.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Obviously that's possible. However, given the way he jumped in the Durkan together with that mistake the last time - not convinced he'll get round without issue
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